Growth & Unrest Said To Taunt Ethiopia in 2010:
The Contradictions the Nation Has Become
By Genet Mersha | February 14, 2010
Crystal gazing 2010
economies in the North and elsewhere. Huge northern and Eastern
investments are expected in these markets, at least for a while.
Inevitably, this shift in wealth would not go unnoticed or without creating
ripples. The World in 2010 anticipates rising unemployment, with sixty million
more jobless people than in 2008 worldwide. Setting its lens on UN-ILO
estimates, the magazine says 200 million people would face risk of falling on
income less than $2 a day.
In view of the above, the electorates in democratic countries are expected to
exercise their sovereign rights to punish individuals and governments
considered responsible for their plights. In countries where expressions of
dissent or grievances cannot go unpunished, anger may find its own ways,
despite the offer of true to form regularity of elections and official declarations
affirming peoples’ sovereignty to exercise their theoretical rights.
Of the 166 countries whose situations have been put under the microscope,
77 “States of combustibility” have been identified—22 of them under “very
high” risk of social unrest, 34 under “high” risk, including Ethiopia. Whereas
only two countries are seen as having “low” risks in the whole African
continent, Chad, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Sudan and Zimbabwe
have topped the “very high” risk group.
In making its case for social unrests, The World in 2010 lists a whole gamut
of tinderboxes such as “the degree of income inequality, the state of
governance, levels of social provision, ethnic tensions, public trust in
institutions, the history of unrest and type of political system (“intermediate”
regimes that are neither consolidated democracies nor autocracies seem the
most vulnerable.” That much, at least, the crystal gazing by The World in
2010 seems to share our own worst fears for our country.
Thus, the 2010 story is a narrative of contradictions. Its “Top Growers” list in
order of ranks 1-11 is populated by small and fragile economies, except
China and India. Once again, Ethiopia pops up in fifth place as fastest grower.
Whereas this recognition is of some magnitude by the researchers and editors
of the magazine, their conclusion that the government party would pocket the
election outcome in May is rather judgmental than compliment. Strong
sentiments have already been expressed that is “victory” should impose on
Ethiopian leaders the added responsibility of seeking in earnest a social
contract with the people, a vital cog that has so far been missing in the wheels
of their claims to good governance, despite their many denials and obdurate
resistance.
The World in 2010’s testimony of positive growth prospects in Ethiopia is
likely to arouse expectations amongst citizens. However, notice that beyond
the headline and the details of the numbers, its forecast is deliberately
accentuated with implied concerns over its sustainability and the economy’s
lack of internal dynamism. It states, “As the global economy emerges from
recession most of the leading performers in 2010 will be minor emerging
markets, especially aid-driven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.” It then
attributes Ethiopia’s to IMF’s financial support on one hand and favourable
weather for agriculture on the other that could make it “one of the world’s
fastest-growing economies” this year.
Amplifying the contradictions
Often, there emerges an image in the mind’s eye, mostly distinguishable for its
contradictions. Tensions between divergent visions in the country between
citizens and government, hunger in the midst of possibilities and great
prospects for growth, society and the environment and the nation’s hopes and
despairs becoming grits to the mills of its daily life and its frustrations, mostly
nourished by unfulfilled promises and unrealised dreams.
On the canvas are, therefore, invective and rage against the state for its total
surrender of its powers and institutions to authoritarianism that neither has
willingness to listen, nor is imaginative or show respect to their wishes or things
they consider sacrosanct. This has begat citizens’ distrust and resentment
against government. Consequently, today, there are three categories of victims
in Ethiopia, some of them as memories: (a) a society condemned to
repression; (b) government that lacks credibility and unsuccessful in its quest
for legitimacy by other means and, (c) the many lives cut short by the state and
those that have been and continue to be unlawfully seized and languish in
prisons.
This is a story of the constant collisions between Ethiopian aspirations and the
resistance that shapes its path to the future. Rest assured, the tensions would
continue until limits are set once and for all on government and political parties
to ensure that their leaders and institutions at the federal, regional levels and
further down do not abuse their powers and violate the rights and freedoms of
citizens and get away with impunity, as it has been happening for a long time
now.
Fortunately, the country’s strengths lie in its vibrancy, determination and
willingness to keep on trying to change things for the better for all its citizens.
More importantly, it is a youthful nation and at the same time one of the oldest
in the world. It is modest, mature and patient; it would hardly give in to defeat
or discouragement, as it strives to realise its dreams with its own efforts.
Lekatit 11 must afford opportunity for reflection
itself to honest introspection with a view to getting a handle on how to make
its peace with society.
On the eve of its 35th anniversary, a huge wall stands between citizens and the
Front. So far, it seems it is still in a business as usual mode. Interestingly, as
part of its propaganda campaignTPLF’s aigaforum.com writes, “TPLF's
strength comes from its popularity among the Tigrean people” (Tigrai gears
to celebrate Lekatit 11 in a grand style.”). If this is a sign of coming to
terms with the truth, about the organisation’s unpopularity in the country, the
openness is welcome. That certainly is the case, partly on account of its ethnic
policies and what that has entailed to the country and its citizens. Evidence of
that is, how much it has weaved together its organisational skills and freedom
with the truth to exploit the state’s inherent monopoly and capacity to unleash
violence through these past decades to realise its narrow and parochial
objectives.
If, however, Aiga’s is a response to the unguarded confidence by Ato Syee
Abraha’s early claim of anticipated victory as preferred candidate of the
people of Tembien/Tigray, it means ever since his article TPLF must have
been in nightmares. Even Ato Meles is now involved in giving his antidote,
when a few days ago he spoke to the people of Tigrai [WIC interview in
Tigrigna] telling them that opposition parties are remnants of the past and
stand to defend interests of the Dergue and OLF! In his words, “once they
[Seyee, Gebru…] left Woyane the only choice left for them was to join
Dergue and OLF remnants! And, they have joined these forces in broad
day light today!” [Source and emphasis aigaforum.com]. What does the
underlying message of the prime minister say about inter-ethnic relations on the
eve of the election?
What is troubling mostly is how far the love of power pushes good people to
distort reality to serve their needs of the moment. Does truth have a revolving
door to come and go as one wish? After all, it should not be surprising that
Aigaforum had to indulge in another harebrained political dupery, especially
the inference of which is Tigray is monolithic behind the TPLF. It is TPLF’s
right to defend its truth, as it sees fit. How about integrity that the public has
dying to see in all these years?
Come to think of it; the TPLF should not have chafed too much over losing
Tembein to Seyee or Mekelle to Gebru Asrat and a few other woredas in
Tigray in the election, if at all it could allow that. If anything, that would only
invigorate parliament a little bit more, whose sessions otherwise have been
dull, dreary and its decisions pre-tailored. The election of new and
experienced candidates would only engender sensible deliberations and
exchange of views that would encourage other parliamentarians to give
primacy to the interests of the country, instead of the ruling party. This is
assuming that we would not read any article in the foreign media that TPLF
imitating the Gambian president to warn Tembienites, Mekellians, etc., if they
side the opposition,"I will develop the areas that vote for me, but if you don't
vote for me, don't expect anything!"
Anyways, this year’s TPLF 35th anniversary would be celebrated in the
presence of 250,000 invited guests and visitors in Mekelle. It would not only
be an occasion of chronological age of the organisation and survival, but also a
warming up for an ‘electoral victory’ that is already in hand, sealed with
muscles of the ruling party, codified with the code of conduct that has ensured
its total control over the election processes since it started it five years ago.
Add to this is, how exceptionally good 2009 has been to EFFORT; its coffers
are overflowing. Especially notable are successes registered by Guna,
Messboe, Addis Pharmaceutical, Alemeda, EXTRAN, Wegagen,
TransEthiopia, Ezana and SUR Construction. For instance, of the several
private companies engaged in exports of cereals, oilseeds and spices, Guna
stood first with $31 million profits and was acknowledged with first place
award (Reporter 31 Dec).
Why is that? Because the first agreement, among others, to expand trade with
China (Shandong Province) by a non-government entity was signed with
EFFORT, what they called “Strategic Cooperation” agreement at Mekelle in
November 2008. This enabled especially Guna and Alemda to take
advantage of the market opportunities to export to China oilseeds, among
others, according to EFFORT’s Untitled Document. All along, Ethiopia’s
major exports destination was Europe, until it was overtaken by Asia since
early 2009, perhaps owning to this agreement.
Source: Quarterly reports of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)
It is only thirteen months later, a new preferential market access agreement
was unveiled inter-country level last month. This agreement would allow
Ethiopia to put 95 percent of its exports free of tariff levies. Included in this is
also the understanding to boost trade exchanges by $3 billion by 2015. Over
the past eight years, trade volume between the two countries has been
growing by 35.6 per cent on average, according to the Ministry of Trade and
Industry, the balance of which every year has been hugely in favour of China.
Not that it has changed the trade imbalance, but Guna and Alemda have by
now consolidated their hold in the Chinese market with the appropriate
contacts, information and other services, while it would take a long and
persistent efforts and productivity improvements for others to gain toehold in
that market.
Says Ken Ohashi, World Bank Country Director for Ethiopia and Sudan, “In
Ethiopia, the lack of competition allows many firms with low productivity to
survive, and that learning from the best firms is limited. This keeps the overall
productivity level of the economy low.” Similarly, Sweden tried to discourage
the practice referred to above, citing of lack of separation between
government and its business the implications which to credibility and legitimacy
is huge, as follows.
Consequently, as in yesterday, what is lacking today is the ability to reason out
to see, if there are any lessons to be learned from past mistakes, or how to
win the trust and confidence of citizens. Without it, the nation’s sprit and the
possibilities before its children continue to slip away—for everyone. Events
seem to head now slowly along that direction, especially at the beginning of a
new decade that is anticipated to be more difficult from the point of view of
the clouds hovering over the world economy, rising levels of discontents,
potentials for conflicts, and political and security issues both internal and
external. These have direct and negative implications for Ethiopia.
A state is always as strong as the confidence it inspires in its citizens. The
fabrics of that are sensibility and integrity in leadership, commitment to fairness
and justice and the protection of citizens in every respect. The fact that
government exercises full control over citizens and their resources does not
mean it has their loyalty or support for its ways. In fact, intransigence is dumb,
as is sheer reliance on force. They are of no help when it comes to fostering
genuine bond between citizens and the institutions of power. Power could help
leaders to make any decisions they want, as have many mad and powerful
people have done. However, power is real when those assuming leadership
also own a nation’s past and its values. This would enable them to shepherd it
forward with their support and without repeating past mistakes. That is a path
to toward a better future that all Ethiopians that they richly deserve.
Finally, while wishing Tigreans more wisdom, humility and sensitiveness on this
Lekatit anniversary, I do hope for all our children’s sakes, they would
encourage the TPLF as the core of the government to see Ethiopia beyond
ethnicity, the nation’s patience that is taken for weakness and its arcane
reserve, whose façade of calmness is deceptive.
The Contradictions the Nation Has Become
By Genet Mersha | February 14, 2010
Crystal gazing 2010
- The World in 2010, a
publication by The Economist,
foresees a number of situations
that can possibly come to pass
this year and the factors
shaping them around the world.
Fiscal deficits in a number of
developed countries and
sovereign debts are beclouding
prospects for faster global
economic recovery. Therefore,
economies in the North and elsewhere. Huge northern and Eastern
investments are expected in these markets, at least for a while.
Inevitably, this shift in wealth would not go unnoticed or without creating
ripples. The World in 2010 anticipates rising unemployment, with sixty million
more jobless people than in 2008 worldwide. Setting its lens on UN-ILO
estimates, the magazine says 200 million people would face risk of falling on
income less than $2 a day.
In view of the above, the electorates in democratic countries are expected to
exercise their sovereign rights to punish individuals and governments
considered responsible for their plights. In countries where expressions of
dissent or grievances cannot go unpunished, anger may find its own ways,
despite the offer of true to form regularity of elections and official declarations
affirming peoples’ sovereignty to exercise their theoretical rights.
Of the 166 countries whose situations have been put under the microscope,
77 “States of combustibility” have been identified—22 of them under “very
high” risk of social unrest, 34 under “high” risk, including Ethiopia. Whereas
only two countries are seen as having “low” risks in the whole African
continent, Chad, Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Sudan and Zimbabwe
have topped the “very high” risk group.
In making its case for social unrests, The World in 2010 lists a whole gamut
of tinderboxes such as “the degree of income inequality, the state of
governance, levels of social provision, ethnic tensions, public trust in
institutions, the history of unrest and type of political system (“intermediate”
regimes that are neither consolidated democracies nor autocracies seem the
most vulnerable.” That much, at least, the crystal gazing by The World in
2010 seems to share our own worst fears for our country.
Thus, the 2010 story is a narrative of contradictions. Its “Top Growers” list in
order of ranks 1-11 is populated by small and fragile economies, except
China and India. Once again, Ethiopia pops up in fifth place as fastest grower.
Whereas this recognition is of some magnitude by the researchers and editors
of the magazine, their conclusion that the government party would pocket the
election outcome in May is rather judgmental than compliment. Strong
sentiments have already been expressed that is “victory” should impose on
Ethiopian leaders the added responsibility of seeking in earnest a social
contract with the people, a vital cog that has so far been missing in the wheels
of their claims to good governance, despite their many denials and obdurate
resistance.
The World in 2010’s testimony of positive growth prospects in Ethiopia is
likely to arouse expectations amongst citizens. However, notice that beyond
the headline and the details of the numbers, its forecast is deliberately
accentuated with implied concerns over its sustainability and the economy’s
lack of internal dynamism. It states, “As the global economy emerges from
recession most of the leading performers in 2010 will be minor emerging
markets, especially aid-driven countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.” It then
attributes Ethiopia’s to IMF’s financial support on one hand and favourable
weather for agriculture on the other that could make it “one of the world’s
fastest-growing economies” this year.
Amplifying the contradictions
Often, there emerges an image in the mind’s eye, mostly distinguishable for its
contradictions. Tensions between divergent visions in the country between
citizens and government, hunger in the midst of possibilities and great
prospects for growth, society and the environment and the nation’s hopes and
despairs becoming grits to the mills of its daily life and its frustrations, mostly
nourished by unfulfilled promises and unrealised dreams.
On the canvas are, therefore, invective and rage against the state for its total
surrender of its powers and institutions to authoritarianism that neither has
willingness to listen, nor is imaginative or show respect to their wishes or things
they consider sacrosanct. This has begat citizens’ distrust and resentment
against government. Consequently, today, there are three categories of victims
in Ethiopia, some of them as memories: (a) a society condemned to
repression; (b) government that lacks credibility and unsuccessful in its quest
for legitimacy by other means and, (c) the many lives cut short by the state and
those that have been and continue to be unlawfully seized and languish in
prisons.
This is a story of the constant collisions between Ethiopian aspirations and the
resistance that shapes its path to the future. Rest assured, the tensions would
continue until limits are set once and for all on government and political parties
to ensure that their leaders and institutions at the federal, regional levels and
further down do not abuse their powers and violate the rights and freedoms of
citizens and get away with impunity, as it has been happening for a long time
now.
Fortunately, the country’s strengths lie in its vibrancy, determination and
willingness to keep on trying to change things for the better for all its citizens.
More importantly, it is a youthful nation and at the same time one of the oldest
in the world. It is modest, mature and patient; it would hardly give in to defeat
or discouragement, as it strives to realise its dreams with its own efforts.
Lekatit 11 must afford opportunity for reflection
- Not that every crystal
gazing would come true,
but as the TPLF is
preparing to celebrate its
35th anniversary, there is
an imperative need for
looking beyond
presumptuousness and
suspicion, division and
secretiveness, and its
constant search for
enemies. Common sense
should dictate on this
occasion, after nearly
itself to honest introspection with a view to getting a handle on how to make
its peace with society.
On the eve of its 35th anniversary, a huge wall stands between citizens and the
Front. So far, it seems it is still in a business as usual mode. Interestingly, as
part of its propaganda campaignTPLF’s aigaforum.com writes, “TPLF's
strength comes from its popularity among the Tigrean people” (Tigrai gears
to celebrate Lekatit 11 in a grand style.”). If this is a sign of coming to
terms with the truth, about the organisation’s unpopularity in the country, the
openness is welcome. That certainly is the case, partly on account of its ethnic
policies and what that has entailed to the country and its citizens. Evidence of
that is, how much it has weaved together its organisational skills and freedom
with the truth to exploit the state’s inherent monopoly and capacity to unleash
violence through these past decades to realise its narrow and parochial
objectives.
If, however, Aiga’s is a response to the unguarded confidence by Ato Syee
Abraha’s early claim of anticipated victory as preferred candidate of the
people of Tembien/Tigray, it means ever since his article TPLF must have
been in nightmares. Even Ato Meles is now involved in giving his antidote,
when a few days ago he spoke to the people of Tigrai [WIC interview in
Tigrigna] telling them that opposition parties are remnants of the past and
stand to defend interests of the Dergue and OLF! In his words, “once they
[Seyee, Gebru…] left Woyane the only choice left for them was to join
Dergue and OLF remnants! And, they have joined these forces in broad
day light today!” [Source and emphasis aigaforum.com]. What does the
underlying message of the prime minister say about inter-ethnic relations on the
eve of the election?
What is troubling mostly is how far the love of power pushes good people to
distort reality to serve their needs of the moment. Does truth have a revolving
door to come and go as one wish? After all, it should not be surprising that
Aigaforum had to indulge in another harebrained political dupery, especially
the inference of which is Tigray is monolithic behind the TPLF. It is TPLF’s
right to defend its truth, as it sees fit. How about integrity that the public has
dying to see in all these years?
Come to think of it; the TPLF should not have chafed too much over losing
Tembein to Seyee or Mekelle to Gebru Asrat and a few other woredas in
Tigray in the election, if at all it could allow that. If anything, that would only
invigorate parliament a little bit more, whose sessions otherwise have been
dull, dreary and its decisions pre-tailored. The election of new and
experienced candidates would only engender sensible deliberations and
exchange of views that would encourage other parliamentarians to give
primacy to the interests of the country, instead of the ruling party. This is
assuming that we would not read any article in the foreign media that TPLF
imitating the Gambian president to warn Tembienites, Mekellians, etc., if they
side the opposition,"I will develop the areas that vote for me, but if you don't
vote for me, don't expect anything!"
Anyways, this year’s TPLF 35th anniversary would be celebrated in the
presence of 250,000 invited guests and visitors in Mekelle. It would not only
be an occasion of chronological age of the organisation and survival, but also a
warming up for an ‘electoral victory’ that is already in hand, sealed with
muscles of the ruling party, codified with the code of conduct that has ensured
its total control over the election processes since it started it five years ago.
Add to this is, how exceptionally good 2009 has been to EFFORT; its coffers
are overflowing. Especially notable are successes registered by Guna,
Messboe, Addis Pharmaceutical, Alemeda, EXTRAN, Wegagen,
TransEthiopia, Ezana and SUR Construction. For instance, of the several
private companies engaged in exports of cereals, oilseeds and spices, Guna
stood first with $31 million profits and was acknowledged with first place
award (Reporter 31 Dec).
Why is that? Because the first agreement, among others, to expand trade with
China (Shandong Province) by a non-government entity was signed with
EFFORT, what they called “Strategic Cooperation” agreement at Mekelle in
November 2008. This enabled especially Guna and Alemda to take
advantage of the market opportunities to export to China oilseeds, among
others, according to EFFORT’s Untitled Document. All along, Ethiopia’s
major exports destination was Europe, until it was overtaken by Asia since
early 2009, perhaps owning to this agreement.
Source: Quarterly reports of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)
It is only thirteen months later, a new preferential market access agreement
was unveiled inter-country level last month. This agreement would allow
Ethiopia to put 95 percent of its exports free of tariff levies. Included in this is
also the understanding to boost trade exchanges by $3 billion by 2015. Over
the past eight years, trade volume between the two countries has been
growing by 35.6 per cent on average, according to the Ministry of Trade and
Industry, the balance of which every year has been hugely in favour of China.
Not that it has changed the trade imbalance, but Guna and Alemda have by
now consolidated their hold in the Chinese market with the appropriate
contacts, information and other services, while it would take a long and
persistent efforts and productivity improvements for others to gain toehold in
that market.
Says Ken Ohashi, World Bank Country Director for Ethiopia and Sudan, “In
Ethiopia, the lack of competition allows many firms with low productivity to
survive, and that learning from the best firms is limited. This keeps the overall
productivity level of the economy low.” Similarly, Sweden tried to discourage
the practice referred to above, citing of lack of separation between
government and its business the implications which to credibility and legitimacy
is huge, as follows.
- “From the point of view of efficient competition, as indicated by the
experience from the transport sector and revealed in the surveys about
the business climate mentioned above, the close relation between TPLF
and the present Ethiopian government easily creates doubts about the
equal treatment of EFFORT-companies and other non-party-related
private companies. As there is no efficient and working commercial
legislation, these doubts, well founded or not, easily create problems
concerning the government’s legitimacy and the credibility of its private
sector policies.”
SIDA Country Economic Report 2004
Consequently, as in yesterday, what is lacking today is the ability to reason out
to see, if there are any lessons to be learned from past mistakes, or how to
win the trust and confidence of citizens. Without it, the nation’s sprit and the
possibilities before its children continue to slip away—for everyone. Events
seem to head now slowly along that direction, especially at the beginning of a
new decade that is anticipated to be more difficult from the point of view of
the clouds hovering over the world economy, rising levels of discontents,
potentials for conflicts, and political and security issues both internal and
external. These have direct and negative implications for Ethiopia.
A state is always as strong as the confidence it inspires in its citizens. The
fabrics of that are sensibility and integrity in leadership, commitment to fairness
and justice and the protection of citizens in every respect. The fact that
government exercises full control over citizens and their resources does not
mean it has their loyalty or support for its ways. In fact, intransigence is dumb,
as is sheer reliance on force. They are of no help when it comes to fostering
genuine bond between citizens and the institutions of power. Power could help
leaders to make any decisions they want, as have many mad and powerful
people have done. However, power is real when those assuming leadership
also own a nation’s past and its values. This would enable them to shepherd it
forward with their support and without repeating past mistakes. That is a path
to toward a better future that all Ethiopians that they richly deserve.
Finally, while wishing Tigreans more wisdom, humility and sensitiveness on this
Lekatit anniversary, I do hope for all our children’s sakes, they would
encourage the TPLF as the core of the government to see Ethiopia beyond
ethnicity, the nation’s patience that is taken for weakness and its arcane
reserve, whose façade of calmness is deceptive.
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