WOULD MELES ZENAWI TRULY DEPART,
AS HE HAS PROMISED, OR WOULD HE BECOME
THE GREY EMINENCE OF ETHIOPIAN POLITICS?
By Genet Mersha | June 21, 2009
ANXIETY-RIDDEN TPLF EDGEING THE PRECIPICE OVER 2010
ELECTION
countries in Africa are likely to be very dire indeed.”
PM Meles Zenawi, June 16, 2009 at African Conference of Experts
Part III
The deepening economic, political and security problems in Ethiopia have exerted
extreme pressures on the TPLF, especially in the course of the last few years.
Without a doubt, these conditions have made TPLF’s hold on power increasingly
tenuous. Although officially the regime continues to reiterate its commitment to
peace, democracy and human rights, in practice it has become their gravedigger.
On one hand, it has intensified its repressive policies at home. On the other, it has
been the real culprit behind the Horn of Africa crisis, no less than Eritrea or Sudan,
by striving to keep alive the turmoil in Somalia. This action has also severe
implications to neighbouring Kenya, the instability pushing Somali refugees into
Kenyan territory and some of the warlords profiteering on human sufferings
through uncontrollable businesses within Kenyan towns, including the port town
of Mombassa.
TPLF’s role in Somalia has become increasingly as dirty as mercenaries’, fanning
inter-clan clashes, thereby hampering the possibility of a number of processes that
could have helped unfold by now genuine peace in that country. For instance, the
TPLF has engaged for sometime in co-opting willing academics and intellectuals
from Somalia’s different clans living in European capitals and American cities to
operate as its agents. The purpose is to encourage inter-clan division and conflicts
destroying the very essence of the traditional governance system in Somalia, the
clan system, which ensures peace through mutually agreed pact to respect each
other’s belongings, on which for a number of decades governments in that
country had relied upon for peace, stability and public mobilization.
A very instructive article that I recently read in the US Naval Institute (USNI) blog
is the recognition that a failing state is more dangerous than a failed state (Failed
States Are Worse Than Weak States April 2009). The crisis in Somalia is TPLF’s
insurance with the West. The TPLF is confident that, appearing as an ally that
fights terrorism, it believes it is in a position to make the West pay through its nose
in the false belief that TPLF would continue to fight to deny terrorists a base of
operation. In return, the TPLF gets its counterfeit legitimacy and acceptance, its
citizens have denied it. In addition, the West would continue to refuel the regime’s
central bank with foreign currency reserves and keep government afloat, although
both sides know that without public support and legitimacy, the TPLF would
remain undoubtedly dysfunctional.
In practical terms, for the failed state of Somalia this cruel TPLF policy measures
prolong human suffering, among others, through on-going inter-clan conflicts and
countable deaths. Not surprisingly, because of TPLF’s criminal policies, poverty in
a failed Somalia has already claimed its huge toll in deaths, refugees, and forced
underworld existence for many. It has been a while since crimes of human
trafficking and piracy on the high seas and the Indian Ocean have become a typical
survival industry in Somalia. Not only has it overwhelmed the world’s most
powerful navies and political capitals, but many African countries are also being
punished through expensive imports of goods due to the rising shipping insurance
costs that companies are passing to poor governments and their poor citizens.
Power directed solely to self-preservation
A desperate instinct for self-preservation of the TPLF government is the prime
mover in Ethiopia at present. In other words, especially ever since its humiliation in
the 2005 election that, the TPLF has turned bloody because of its misguided
policies and narrow-minded ambitions, it has delegitimized itself once and for all.
Consequently, TPLF has been undergoing official conversion as a right wing
party, thus now joining the camp of rightist parties that in human history are better
known for their habitual reliance on use of force, anti-human rights, anti-civil
rights laws, policies and actions. With the rising level of poverty and human
desperation in Ethiopia, what have become evident today are TPLF’s anti- poor
political and economic stances.
Fantastically revealing the sources of the crises in Ethiopia has been the gradual
emergence of cult politics, which is typical of governments run by dictators.
There is nothing more telling of this than last week’s hearing in parliament and the
opinion of a government expert who spoke as an honest professional explaining
what underlies the current power outages as long as sixteen to eighteen hours a
day in those few parts of the country with power. The expert who came to
present the report on the matter attributed the problem to three sources. Firstly,
EPPCO board members are least familiar individuals with the work and
responsibilities of the corporation, especially the science and techniques of
generating electricity, according to a leading article on The Reporter.
Secondly, in a very revealing manner how the TPLF government works, the
expert mentioned, “Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had pledged to parliament in
November that there would be no power outages in 2009. Consequently, beyond
its capacity and available resources, the expert said EPPCO was bombarded by
instructions from political quarters to stretch thin and was compelled to take
unwise and harmful operational decisions to prove the infallibility of the prime
minister. Thirdly, he said the main problem is that EPPCO, the office responsible
to run the generation of electricity in Ethiopia, supposed to determine present and
future power needs, reach balanced decisions over a course of a year, plan and
expand power sources, is denied of managerial and operational independence.
Still the TPLF relies on glossing over the mess
Dishonest politics, lack of transparency in government and refusal to assume
responsibility for official actions and inactions share similar identity and
characteristics. They pervade government with malfeasance in everything that
works in the country finally forcing it to succumb. At a point of their intersection,
these combinations conjure up the psychology of sudden nakedness in public
place, forcing leaders to scurry toward the easy way out. In such circumstances,
on one hand against the backdrop of deepening political, economic and security
challenges and a sense of desperation such as the situation has been in Ethiopia
especially since the last few years, the simmering public anger reaches fast its
boiling point.
On the other hand, despite this, when government drums up fantasy of how much
the country has advanced constantly citing democracy’s fruition and the equality
of nationalities, the roads built and buildings standing, the arrogance of power
brings the country much closer to the breaking point. The problem is that lies have
been piling up, as the country’s economy is gradually screeching to a halt. This
has discredited the TPLF, forcing it to yelp louder for international help,
surprisingly of late with an ultimatum. Indeed, for a while now the public has
become weary because of all these and the exorbitant prices of everything, food
shortages, the consequences of which are deepening poverty, instead of its
alleviation, rising homelessness and the deteriorating human conditions.
Confronted with such a situation, a pragmatic government would have retraced its
steps to correct its mistakes, knowing that pretence will get it nowhere. Instead,
the TPLF has adopted two unhelpful strategies. One is to prepare to put its old
guards behind the curtain. The second one is to pick on the international donor
community, as if it is entirely responsible for Ethiopia’s economic woes. In that,
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has found a good model in President Robert Mugabe
of Zimbabwe who has undermined his great legacy in the liberation struggle
against colonialism and his role in the fruition of Zimbabwe’s struggle for
independence. I fear there will be a shared fate, which I hope not for Ethiopia’s
sake.
For instance, how could the failed agricultural policies and crushing inflation that
devastated too many lives, businesses and the country’s prospects, driven, at the
behest of Ato Meles’s massive public expenditures throughout these three years be
wholly attributable to the international donor community?
Ato Sebhat Nega gives helping hand to this article
In order to understand this politico-economic alchemy, it would be better perhaps
to look closely into the political milieu in the country and benefit from the views of
Ato Sebhat Nega, founder of the TPLF, its central committee member and
president of its international peace institute. As I was preparing to put on paper the
third part of this article, I came across his interview on the VOA. As a man who
has seen a lot and whose time has come and gone, he knew how to kowtow the
tightrope party line not to court his isolation or endanger his privileges. Ato Sebhat
tried to shed some light on TPLF’s current thinking and objectives for Ethiopia.
What struck me most is the depth of the prevalent insincerity and parochial
fantasies within the TPLF, which are now taunting it to become the very sources
of its inevitable demise.
Ato Sebhat’s focus, like any person subject to the whims of a turbulent boss, was
to extol the Front’s virtues and achievements. Owing to that, reason had no
influence on him, nor was he in the mood to listen to any comments about TPLF’s
shortcomings, especially those raised by the VOA interviewer and are considered
threatening to the country’s unity, the future of democracy and rumours of alleged
corruption behind the huge wealth the TPLF has amassed. It would be recalled
that party businesses, such as EFFORT’s, have been the subject of too many
strong criticisms by both Ethiopian experts and the World Bank in its interim
strategy for 2006 - 2007.
The contents of Ato Sebhat’s aberrant interview, therefore, were notable mostly
for their Marxist twists, although in some form he interjected his ‘eagerness’ to
see capitalism’s advances in Ethiopia. In that regard, he assured his listeners that
the capitalist system is the only way to solve ‘the contradictions arising from
historically ethnicity-based inequalities in Ethiopia and a national unity imposed by
force of arms, administration and budget.’ The Marxist knot in his thought on a
higher decibel, he wondered how much “we did not know each other as members
of different ethnic groups. Where does the Amhara know the Somali, or the Afar?”
he asked in wonderment. Then he lowered his voice and stressed that TPLF’s
success in resolving those historical contradictions has been unbelievably effective.
This is because it has been able to create the mobility of people and capital. He
made it sound, as if in the past there had been laws that prohibited popular
mobility, and as if Tigrayans, among others, never settled by choice in different
parts of the country. With a strong stress on his syllables, he made it clear that the
TPLF has come through long and hard struggles determined to undo those
inequalities.
“Today,” he added, “different ethnic groups live in peace and harmony.” He then
cited by way of example how the Amharas live in peace with Tigrayans, the
Somalis with Tigrayans, Afars, Somalis and others. He claimed this is because it
“has strengthened the country’s unity and close relations of people of all ethnic
groups more than any time before”. Consequently, with a sense of smug
satisfaction, he observed that Ethiopia has now become “a country where not a
single group is angry with the government”( emphasis by the writer).
The seeds of disunity that have become invisible to the TPLF
Perhaps, Ato Sebhat does not seem to be aware of the real situation in the country,
or he may have considered some events and incidents not appropriate for public
ears. The fact is that, in submitting his office’s performance report to parliament
on 12 June, Ato Worqneh Gebeyhu, commissioner of police, indicated that within
ten months of fiscal year 2008/2009 (six months already in 2009), twelve ethnic
conflicts had taken place in ten months in different parts of the country and
hundreds of people, including policemen had died. Pressed by parliamentarians, On
a related matter, Ato Worqneh disclosed that several members of the police had
resigned their posts for various reasons, according to local media sources.
Such problems have even become obstacle to national development in different
parts of the country. One latest report on the media shows that construction has
been interrupted for seven yeas, for instance, between Oromia and parts of Somali
region since 2002. First time, it was stopped because of the war in the Ogaden and
second time due to inter-ethnic conflicts, partly a fall out of the Ogaden war and
partly because of resources scarcity. The outcome now is that people in those
parts of the two regions remain without access to services, despite that part of the
country being prone to malaria. The health ministry has also identified it for its
high incidence of HIV/aids. Worst of all, the road construction company that had a
39 million birr contract for 52 km of road has gone bankrupt before it completed
its work, due to destruction of all his equipment ensuing from this situation. It is
also reported that the remaining assets of the owner of the construction company
have been seized because of unpaid bank loans.
This has obliterated the concept and possibilities for imbuing the young in the
different ethnic groups with a sense of national identity. In brief, Ethiopia is simply
a fable in the minds of the young, especially those born after the TPLF seized
power. In this regard, Germany, as one of Ethiopia’s foremost aid providers, has
recognized the inherent danger in this. In its website, the federal ministry
responsible for foreign economic development and cooperation writes,
“Decentralisation has not yet led to the hoped-for political integration within the
country, though, and ethnic conflicts are worsening in some regions.”
In all this, one thing is clear. Ato Sebhat’s mental absence about what is taking
place in the country was too manifest. A case in point, which is terribly
bothersome, is his obliviousness to the bloody war of the past few years in the
Ogaden and the live trenches therein still today, which have been a subject of
international condemnations and United Nations investigation and monitoring.
Similarly, the continuous low-intensity conflicts in different parts of the country,
the largest one being in Oromia, and the plight of the many political prisoners for
Ato Sebhat have become simply too invisible. Surely, there is no doubt that he
knows too well that any challenge to the undemocratic nature and behaviour of the
TPLF always ends up in disappearances or long-term incarceration. That has been,
for instance, the fate of the luminous and courageous Judge Birtukan Mideksa,
President of UDJ, one of the strongest opposition parties in Ethiopia, a situation
that has made her a living symbol of freedom much as her sister in tribulation
Aung San Sui Kyi of Myanmar. Many such prisoners as Ms. Mideksa are locked in
because of their devotion to the cause of human freedom, democracy the rule of
law, and human dignity both for themselves and for their fellow citizens.
In terms of substance, therefore, Ato Sebhat sounded like a man who demands to
be listened and, determined as he was, to bring others to his side. “We are in
power with the appropriate programme for Ethiopia’s development,” Ato Sebhat
declared. Most strikingly, he added, “The TPLF is only in caretaker capacity until
it liquidates itself with capitalism’s development, at which time it would hand over
power to the bourgeoisie”! At this point, I must confess, I was totally lost. I am
not sure still, whether he was talking about Ethiopians as a whole becoming
bourgeois or the exclusive transformation of TPLF members as a class, given the
wealth EFFORT has amassed.
Corporate TPLF, top most investor passes dividends to invisible
beneficiaries
As EFFORT’s first chairperson, Ato Sebhat told publicly for the first time that
EFFORT is ‘the single largest and wealthiest investor at the top of businesses in
Ethiopia today.’ He revealed that it is involved in the country’s ‘strategic services’
such as transport, construction, as well as playing active role in agriculture,
financial services, other development projects, industries and factories, etc. He
also disclosed that the TPLF still has an export-import company in London. Recall
in this connection, a British consultancy firm and mainstream newspaper in 2005
disclosed the existence of conduit in a poor country such as Ethiopia whose
siphoned off capital to European banks had reached 503 percent.
As to the beneficiaries of EFFORT, Ato Sebhat was unequivocal that by law it is
Tigrayan property. In the same breath, he added, “Tigrayans are not the direct
beneficiaries.” After the slippage of those words, he retreated to stop before he
muddied TPLF’s face in the eyes of its diehard and trusting Tigrayan members.
Therefore, he rephrased his words and redefined “beneficiaries” to mean the
Ethiopian economy.
The pathetic baloney in his explanation is the foreign exchange that he said
EFFORT had managed to bring into the country when it sold its assets in foreign
countries at different times, all of which, he said went to the benefit of Ethiopia.
While the essence of his words signals an air of dubiousness, clearly the sense of
the sum of the magnitude he conveyed did not add up at all to its individual parts.
For instance, Wegagen bank to which Ato Sebhat Nega is board chairman is the
once that collected the foreign exchange, instead of the Commercial Bank of
Ethiopia. If TPLF is willing to disprove this, it should come with explanation how
Wegagen came to be the source of foreign exchange to the many TPLF purchases
such as equipment and other items that financed the loans.
Evidently, as far as both the Ethiopian economy and especially the people of
Tigray, in whose name EFFORT does its businesses, are concerned, TPLF’s
ethos is what is mine is mine, what is yours is mine too!
TPLF’s self-liquidation becomes its new line of deception
Much as TPLF’s self-liquidation has puzzled the VOA interviewer, I am also one
of those who wonder why after all elections should be organized in Ethiopia. Based
on what Ato Sebhat has said, it seems logical to assume that legitimization of
power by the voice of the electorate is of secondary importance. It is something
that could wait for the flourishing of capitalism and the self-liquidation of the
TPLF! In other words, if election cannot produce changes the electorate desires,
what point is there in wasting time and resources in organizing them. The
interviewer pursued this further hoping to squeeze out of his guest if the TPLF as
a matter of law and political practice would respect the outcome of elections. Ato
Sebhat’s response was in the affirmative. His hesitance is strikingly evident
though, which he coated with stress on TPLF’s programme being the best for
Ethiopia.
At the same time, Ato Sebhat resorted to the usual TPLF sideswiping of the
persistent call in the country for democratic change through the ballot box. He said
we have already seen their control of Addis Ababa, without mentioning CUD by
name, and implying that they tried to chew more than they could bite. Then he
added that is in the nature of the power hungry i.e., they often look for a shortcut
to power. Still he advised that anyone of them could come with acceptable
alternative programme that is not in conflict with the constitution—the usual TPLF
catch for which it has earned singular distinction. Unfortunately, Ato Sebhat
refrained from elaborating how and who would determine what programme is
acceptable and constitutional. Nonetheless, the experience to date is unmistakable.
Obedience to the constitution, unlike the government, is a duty stringently reposed
on citizens.
Unmistakable similarities between Ato Meles and Ato Sebhat’s
thinking
The crucial junction where Ato Sebhat’s thinking and Ato Meles’s meet is TPLF’s
indefinite stay in power. Ato Sebhat poorly discusses the mechanics and is only
certain that the measures must be the full blossoming of capitalism in Ethiopia, at
which time the TPLF would hand over power to the bourgeoisie. Ato Meles has
placed its context in Ethiopia’s development, although his is also an analysis
preformatted by a pre-existing conclusion, instead of the analysis leading to a
conclusion. In his 2006 treatise, African Development: Dead Ends and New
Beginnings, he insists that revolutionary democracy—TPLF—must remain in
power, as necessity by itself when possible and with coalition with others even
with rightist parties when dictated by circumstances. The justification is to provide
policy consistency and leadership continuity. Ato Meles implies in his writing that
he puts the ceiling to fifty years. Perhaps, who knows, capitalism could flourish
by then, as Ato Sebhat promised, the TPLF, would pack up, and take its leave to
the next upper class.
A regime with such agenda turns out to be manipulative, as in constant
demonstration is the total divorce between its official preaching and its unlawful
practices. Add to this, official TPLF press conferences and its press releases,
which is top and centre replete with denials. More frightening is the fact of the
TPLF’s ease in being fast and loose with the truth, because of which few
Ethiopians give little weight to what the government of Ethiopia says. Worst of all,
troubling to many is its lack of credibility to shoulder the responsibility of
defending the country’s honour, sovereignty, territorial integrity and its long-term
interests. Experience has already shown Ethiopians how Assab was voluntarily
given away.
TPLF could not help it—the EPLF took Assab!
Ato Sebhat told the VOA, “the TPLF did not give away Assab to the EPLF. It took
it. Before we [TPLF] entered Addis Ababa, for a while the EPLF had already been
in control of Asmara and Assab.” From the voice of the interviewer, I could hear
his agony and pain, his silent rage and a heap of contempt to his guest. He calmly
asked to ensure if he had heard him right the first time, “was the EPLF in control
of Asmara and Assab even while the Dergue was in power?” Ato Sebhat
unblinkingly said, “Yes, even when the Dergue was there.”
Surprises never end, as far as the TPLF is concerned. However, one thing the
interviewer ought to ask was about the fertile lands of western Ethiopia that have
been ceded to the Sudan in a secret deal barely three years ago. Not that we do not
know the facts, but Ato Sebhat’s response would have added one more material
evidence to the long list of TPLF’s lies and credibility crisis. Moreover, for
instance, which Ethiopian cannot see or understand today that, among others,
Ethiopia’s foreign policy has been for a quite sometime, especially since 2005, at
the auction block to the highest bidder.
Leading contenders for now are China, which sees Ethiopia as its gateway to
Africa and provides good aid package and low interest credits. Another
frontrunner that officially has focussed on the economy is Germany. For three
years, Germany has provided 96 million euros until 2011. It exerts enormous
influences on Addis Ababa. In a recent visit, a high-level German official lauded
Ethiopian democracy. Germany has also benefited handsomely from economic
returns through the investments of its nationals.
GTZ, in collaboration with its fellows GTZ/CIM, KfW and DED, is Berlin’s
operation arm in Ethiopia and is the largest foreign aid office worldwide by any
donor country. In Ethiopia, GTZ has more than 200 foreign experts and around
425 national Staff, according to information by the agency. As I expressed my
disquiet in another article a few months back, it operates on behalf of the Ethiopian
government in dealing with other international donors, especially in matters
involving bids and contracts to hire construction companies and initiate
construction projects. In a country that had safeguarded its independence all these
thousands of years, it is repulsive that a foreign government agency be allowed to
operate on behalf of our government. Partly because of their interests, Ethiopian
construction company owners have already made their concerns known.
Certainly, until recently on the political and security fronts, the United States has
been the boss with the largest humanitarian aid to Ethiopia and in the fight against
HIV/aids with appreciable consistency. Nevertheless, the entire focus of the Bush
administration had been on its security interests and ensuring that the government
is accepted by other donors. With the Obama administration, things are likely to
change. Initially, they are likely to engage the government in a dialogue to impress
on the regime to change its undemocratic ways.
In a VOA interview on 18 June, Ambassador Jonnie Carson, the new assistant
secretary of state for Africa, made it clear for the second time, “We will want to
talk to the Ethiopian government about opening political space, strengthening
institutions, having greater involvement of civil society and more respect for the
rights of individual in the economic and political sphere.” At the same time, the
Obama administration seems to try to put its money where its mouth is. There are
signs to engage in Ethiopia in agricultural productivity growth in view of the fact
that Ethiopia’s agriculture has failed citizens, despite the massive resources that
have been poured into agriculture in the past eighteen years, which the regime used
mostly to rally the farming population into becoming its political base.
Pulling strings to consolidate the reign of terror
One of the purposes of Ato Sebaht Nega’s latest visit to the US is to explain to the
Tigrayan community the rationale of Ato Meles’s latest decision to return Eritrean
properties to their legitimate owners. Citizens of the two countries were disowned
unlawfully more than ten years ago by both Ethiopia and Eritrea as they went to
war in 1998. Understandably, this latest decision has irritated some TPLF
members or other Tigrayans on behalf of their relatives or friends who have lost
properties in Eritrea or, allegedly those in other parts of Ethiopia who have taken
over Eritrean properties and are not enthusiastic in returning them.
In explaining the rationale of this measure, one point Ato Sebhat kept on repeating
is the security condition that necessitated such measure in the past is no longer
there now. Notwithstanding that by implication, he was justifying the Eritrean
action. Ato Sebhat explained that today Ethiopia is at peace internally and stable.
Therefore, those properties needed to be returned to their legitimate owners.
Supposedly, is this an attempt to fish propaganda coup against the TPLF implying
by this action that Eritrea is not at peace?
TPLF’s rationale notwithstanding, first of all the decision ought to be seen within
the context of the indignities both peoples have suffered. To start with, it was a
huge mistake that both governments paraded each other’s citizens, robbed them of
their properties and threw them out as if they were dirt. Unfortunate, as it is, this
latest mistake is vulgar and self-serving, if not for anything, at least for ignoring
the indignities suffered by Ethiopians and their lost properties. For that matter, it
neither atones for past mistakes against ordinary Eritreans; nor does it show
concern about the new pains it inflicts on those Ethiopians Eritrea has mistreated in
the same way by robbing them of their properties and human dignities.
Worst of all, the push behind the decision is hardly internal peace and security in
Ethiopia, as Ato Sebhat alleges. TPLF has three objectives in mind. The first one is
to divert public attention in Ethiopia form the crushing economic malaise and the
overall frustration by attempting to incite nationalist sentiments against Isayias
Afeworki, portraying him as a rogue bully at the corner who has stolen Ethiopian
properties. Secondly, for the increasing number of Ethiopian resistance groups
Isayias Afeworki has become a godfather. This has deeply worried the TPLF.
Because of that, the TPLF has turned to the Eritrean people trying to court their
favour through this latest decision. Thirdly, in view of the worsening economic
conditions in Ethiopia, the TPLF hopes that returning Eritrean properties could
encourage them to engage in businesses in Ethiopia, possibly attracting more
capital from abroad, helping revive the economy, and even bringing in initially
more foreign exchange through the Eritrean diaspora, who would also be
encouraged to visit families and tourism.
Nevertheless, for many who heard Ato Sebhat, his claim of peace and security
sounded hollow. Some chatted on the internet and wrote their views to the effect
that, if there is such peace questioning as to why there is continuing tension
between citizens and government. Surely, the TPLF could be prepared to accuse
them of being ARENA sympathizers. The fact is, however, the unanswered
question is what compels ‘a stable government in a peaceful country’ to continue
to deny the democratic rights of its citizens, i.e., free press, freedom of speech,
the right to assemble and organize, the rule of law, independent courts, etc., and
even choose to disable civil society organizations.
For many, the strongest indicator is the latest undemocratic anti-terrorism law that
belies TPLF’s claim of sense of security and the country’s stability. Unless a
government is insecure, there is no reason for putting heavy axe of the law and
law enforcement against dissent, as its so-called anti-terrorism law does. A nation
with a united purpose and goal would have reposed its attention and resources to
target the real terrorists, extremists and fundamentalists of all forms, instead of
directing itself against citizens aspiring for their democratic rights. In its editorial,
The Reporter last week wrote, “We are deeply concerned that, under the guise of
fighting terrorism, respect for fundamental human rights, the rule of law, press
freedom and all other civil rights, have fallen under imminent danger more than
ever before.”
The truth is that the TPLF does not want citizens to know that it is desperate
because of two reasons: the economy is in severe crisis and the forthcoming
election would provide opportunities to demonstrate public rejection of it.
Therefore, to date in preparation for that, the TPLF has left not a thing untried
within its means, including its capacity at locking peaceful citizens and/or
butchering them for no offence at all. The army and the security machineries
gobble up 15 percent of Ethiopia’s GDP, according to Business Monitor
International, and are ready to butcher once again peaceful protestors, empowered
by the latest proclamation notable for its anti-constitutional and anti human rights
accent.
Last Friday’s warning mixed with stretching olive branches to the contending
parties by Ayatollah Khamenei, the spiritual leader of Iran, who is apparently
worried about the row over election fraud, pales by comparison to the recent pre-
election warning by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. VOA’s Peter Heilein writes,
“Prime Minister Meles Zenawi warned that government forces would have little
tolerance for street protests.” He quotes the prime minister saying, “The 2005
experience was experience enough for anybody to be able to learn from, and so
I'm sure our law enforcement entities will be much better prepared for any
eventuality than they were in 2005, not only in terms of handling riots, but also in
terms of deterring and preventing riots.”
It is in a way, evidence of the regime’s insecurity. Ato Meles revealed to Africa
Confidential of 3 May, “We may have some foreign exchange constraints but
those constraints are already beginning to ease. So in balance, we hope and expect
that it will be a permissive economic environment for a peaceful and successful
election” in 2010 (emphasis by the writer). This is the first time the government
has openly spoken of such concerns, i.e. the danger of the simmering political and
economic discontents in the country. Against the prime minister’s feigned
optimism to the media, however, the economic reality is ugly, with little likelihood
of its improvement, let alone before the 2010 election even in the medium-term.
The gathering storm & Ato Meles’s predicament
What Ato Sebhat avoided discussing is the economic crisis, which is likely to
undermine the TPLF. Politically, all these years the TPLF has waded through its
unpopularity by imprisoning and eliminating its opponents. What it cannot do now
is turn around the country’s economy, which for some years has been heading in
the wrong direction. The government is waking up very late in the day, after
economic decline has exposed all its weaknesses, the outcome of the faulty
policies it has pursued this long.
Ato Meles has known this for sometime, although real awareness has set in only
lately, as he was preoccupied for a while in his decision to leave or not to leave.
Already last spring, he was in denial that the Ethiopian economy is in any danger.
When the reality proved him wrong especially in the autumn of 2008, his first act
was to order his forces in March to raid coffee exporters’ stores, seize their
coffees, and export them to get badly needed foreign exchange. It earned his
government $21 million in foreign exchange, for that matter, at low market prices
that the exporters wanted to dodge. Among the expropriated exporters were many
well-known exporters the regime had earlier awarded prizes acknowledging their
superior performances. Now Ato Meles realizes that his action was wrong, and
feels concerned that the international community would accuse him of not
respecting property rights and the rule of law. Therefore, as a matter of habit for
him, the best solution is to charge the exporters with attempts to sabotage the
government’s efforts at national development. Thank God, this time he has not
applied charges of genocide or attempts at subverting the constitution!
All that this shows is Ato Meles’s desperation. He is aware that the TPLF would
not tolerate the reversal of its fortunes. Therefore, instead of taking appropriate
policy measures and solutions, on one hand Ato Meles has chosen to play political
theatrics announcing his interest in parting, without even sharing his intention first
formally or informally with his colleagues in leadership, who heard all about it
from the media. On the other hand, since February he has been making the loudest
SOS (Save Our Souls) in the name of Africa, calling for increased foreign aid.
Lest, he warned repeatedly that many African states would become failed or failing
states. Of course, he has not mentioned that Ethiopia under his leadership is one of
those countries. Ato Meles’s strategy now seems to be to yelp holding the donor
community responsible for all the mess, which partly is true, but not entirely.
Perhaps, this is seemingly a smart move coming from him, before his party begins
to look around to replace him. Clearly, TPLF would not be interested in losing its
position of strength, or welcome new shareholders emerging now on the back of
economic and political crises. However, what is astounding is how either instinct
of the Tigrayan elites within the TPLF, including the army brass, or even the
intellect of the elites abroad has failed to see the regime’s slippery path this long.
When the leadership realized, as late as Ato Meles himself did, for all of them it
was no time to apportion blame while the fire is gutting out everything. They
recognize that the problem is already beyond them. In the light of this, due to the
lack of option, the internal consensus within the TPLF seems to be to focus to
limiting the cascading effects of the negative economic and political developments.
What are those negative consequences and developments Ato Meles has been
talking of lately? Part IV of this article would present a complete analysis and
prognosis of the Ethiopian economy. Weak economy is the source of political
insecurity for the TPLF, strengthening its opponents, who are as unprepared in the
real sense of the word. In the meantime, the unpopularity of the regime has been
increasingly turning it into the extreme right, in both policy choices and its
disrespect for fundamental human rights and the rule of law.
Its move against the tide is creating internal restlessness within the TPLF, growing
resistance within the country, and sings of betrayal are in evidence that those
ethnic fronts it has arrayed around it are bidding their time to desert. Meanwhile,
the Ethiopian economy would go through the worst in the medium-term, before
seeing promising signs of recovery. We all need to pray in earnest our country
would not fall into the trap of needless bloodletting.
.
(To be continued…)
AS HE HAS PROMISED, OR WOULD HE BECOME
THE GREY EMINENCE OF ETHIOPIAN POLITICS?
By Genet Mersha | June 21, 2009
ANXIETY-RIDDEN TPLF EDGEING THE PRECIPICE OVER 2010
ELECTION
- “We seem to be destined to face all the
negative consequences of 2008 and
2009 without any of their limited
benefits for the foreseeable future…I
think the international community could
and should provide adequate policy
space, live up to its commitments of
development assistance, limit global
warming and pay compensation for the
unavoidable damage caused by it.
countries in Africa are likely to be very dire indeed.”
PM Meles Zenawi, June 16, 2009 at African Conference of Experts
Part III
The deepening economic, political and security problems in Ethiopia have exerted
extreme pressures on the TPLF, especially in the course of the last few years.
Without a doubt, these conditions have made TPLF’s hold on power increasingly
tenuous. Although officially the regime continues to reiterate its commitment to
peace, democracy and human rights, in practice it has become their gravedigger.
On one hand, it has intensified its repressive policies at home. On the other, it has
been the real culprit behind the Horn of Africa crisis, no less than Eritrea or Sudan,
by striving to keep alive the turmoil in Somalia. This action has also severe
implications to neighbouring Kenya, the instability pushing Somali refugees into
Kenyan territory and some of the warlords profiteering on human sufferings
through uncontrollable businesses within Kenyan towns, including the port town
of Mombassa.
TPLF’s role in Somalia has become increasingly as dirty as mercenaries’, fanning
inter-clan clashes, thereby hampering the possibility of a number of processes that
could have helped unfold by now genuine peace in that country. For instance, the
TPLF has engaged for sometime in co-opting willing academics and intellectuals
from Somalia’s different clans living in European capitals and American cities to
operate as its agents. The purpose is to encourage inter-clan division and conflicts
destroying the very essence of the traditional governance system in Somalia, the
clan system, which ensures peace through mutually agreed pact to respect each
other’s belongings, on which for a number of decades governments in that
country had relied upon for peace, stability and public mobilization.
A very instructive article that I recently read in the US Naval Institute (USNI) blog
is the recognition that a failing state is more dangerous than a failed state (Failed
States Are Worse Than Weak States April 2009). The crisis in Somalia is TPLF’s
insurance with the West. The TPLF is confident that, appearing as an ally that
fights terrorism, it believes it is in a position to make the West pay through its nose
in the false belief that TPLF would continue to fight to deny terrorists a base of
operation. In return, the TPLF gets its counterfeit legitimacy and acceptance, its
citizens have denied it. In addition, the West would continue to refuel the regime’s
central bank with foreign currency reserves and keep government afloat, although
both sides know that without public support and legitimacy, the TPLF would
remain undoubtedly dysfunctional.
In practical terms, for the failed state of Somalia this cruel TPLF policy measures
prolong human suffering, among others, through on-going inter-clan conflicts and
countable deaths. Not surprisingly, because of TPLF’s criminal policies, poverty in
a failed Somalia has already claimed its huge toll in deaths, refugees, and forced
underworld existence for many. It has been a while since crimes of human
trafficking and piracy on the high seas and the Indian Ocean have become a typical
survival industry in Somalia. Not only has it overwhelmed the world’s most
powerful navies and political capitals, but many African countries are also being
punished through expensive imports of goods due to the rising shipping insurance
costs that companies are passing to poor governments and their poor citizens.
Power directed solely to self-preservation
A desperate instinct for self-preservation of the TPLF government is the prime
mover in Ethiopia at present. In other words, especially ever since its humiliation in
the 2005 election that, the TPLF has turned bloody because of its misguided
policies and narrow-minded ambitions, it has delegitimized itself once and for all.
Consequently, TPLF has been undergoing official conversion as a right wing
party, thus now joining the camp of rightist parties that in human history are better
known for their habitual reliance on use of force, anti-human rights, anti-civil
rights laws, policies and actions. With the rising level of poverty and human
desperation in Ethiopia, what have become evident today are TPLF’s anti- poor
political and economic stances.
Fantastically revealing the sources of the crises in Ethiopia has been the gradual
emergence of cult politics, which is typical of governments run by dictators.
There is nothing more telling of this than last week’s hearing in parliament and the
opinion of a government expert who spoke as an honest professional explaining
what underlies the current power outages as long as sixteen to eighteen hours a
day in those few parts of the country with power. The expert who came to
present the report on the matter attributed the problem to three sources. Firstly,
EPPCO board members are least familiar individuals with the work and
responsibilities of the corporation, especially the science and techniques of
generating electricity, according to a leading article on The Reporter.
Secondly, in a very revealing manner how the TPLF government works, the
expert mentioned, “Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had pledged to parliament in
November that there would be no power outages in 2009. Consequently, beyond
its capacity and available resources, the expert said EPPCO was bombarded by
instructions from political quarters to stretch thin and was compelled to take
unwise and harmful operational decisions to prove the infallibility of the prime
minister. Thirdly, he said the main problem is that EPPCO, the office responsible
to run the generation of electricity in Ethiopia, supposed to determine present and
future power needs, reach balanced decisions over a course of a year, plan and
expand power sources, is denied of managerial and operational independence.
Still the TPLF relies on glossing over the mess
Dishonest politics, lack of transparency in government and refusal to assume
responsibility for official actions and inactions share similar identity and
characteristics. They pervade government with malfeasance in everything that
works in the country finally forcing it to succumb. At a point of their intersection,
these combinations conjure up the psychology of sudden nakedness in public
place, forcing leaders to scurry toward the easy way out. In such circumstances,
on one hand against the backdrop of deepening political, economic and security
challenges and a sense of desperation such as the situation has been in Ethiopia
especially since the last few years, the simmering public anger reaches fast its
boiling point.
On the other hand, despite this, when government drums up fantasy of how much
the country has advanced constantly citing democracy’s fruition and the equality
of nationalities, the roads built and buildings standing, the arrogance of power
brings the country much closer to the breaking point. The problem is that lies have
been piling up, as the country’s economy is gradually screeching to a halt. This
has discredited the TPLF, forcing it to yelp louder for international help,
surprisingly of late with an ultimatum. Indeed, for a while now the public has
become weary because of all these and the exorbitant prices of everything, food
shortages, the consequences of which are deepening poverty, instead of its
alleviation, rising homelessness and the deteriorating human conditions.
Confronted with such a situation, a pragmatic government would have retraced its
steps to correct its mistakes, knowing that pretence will get it nowhere. Instead,
the TPLF has adopted two unhelpful strategies. One is to prepare to put its old
guards behind the curtain. The second one is to pick on the international donor
community, as if it is entirely responsible for Ethiopia’s economic woes. In that,
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has found a good model in President Robert Mugabe
of Zimbabwe who has undermined his great legacy in the liberation struggle
against colonialism and his role in the fruition of Zimbabwe’s struggle for
independence. I fear there will be a shared fate, which I hope not for Ethiopia’s
sake.
For instance, how could the failed agricultural policies and crushing inflation that
devastated too many lives, businesses and the country’s prospects, driven, at the
behest of Ato Meles’s massive public expenditures throughout these three years be
wholly attributable to the international donor community?
Ato Sebhat Nega gives helping hand to this article
In order to understand this politico-economic alchemy, it would be better perhaps
to look closely into the political milieu in the country and benefit from the views of
Ato Sebhat Nega, founder of the TPLF, its central committee member and
president of its international peace institute. As I was preparing to put on paper the
third part of this article, I came across his interview on the VOA. As a man who
has seen a lot and whose time has come and gone, he knew how to kowtow the
tightrope party line not to court his isolation or endanger his privileges. Ato Sebhat
tried to shed some light on TPLF’s current thinking and objectives for Ethiopia.
What struck me most is the depth of the prevalent insincerity and parochial
fantasies within the TPLF, which are now taunting it to become the very sources
of its inevitable demise.
Ato Sebhat’s focus, like any person subject to the whims of a turbulent boss, was
to extol the Front’s virtues and achievements. Owing to that, reason had no
influence on him, nor was he in the mood to listen to any comments about TPLF’s
shortcomings, especially those raised by the VOA interviewer and are considered
threatening to the country’s unity, the future of democracy and rumours of alleged
corruption behind the huge wealth the TPLF has amassed. It would be recalled
that party businesses, such as EFFORT’s, have been the subject of too many
strong criticisms by both Ethiopian experts and the World Bank in its interim
strategy for 2006 - 2007.
The contents of Ato Sebhat’s aberrant interview, therefore, were notable mostly
for their Marxist twists, although in some form he interjected his ‘eagerness’ to
see capitalism’s advances in Ethiopia. In that regard, he assured his listeners that
the capitalist system is the only way to solve ‘the contradictions arising from
historically ethnicity-based inequalities in Ethiopia and a national unity imposed by
force of arms, administration and budget.’ The Marxist knot in his thought on a
higher decibel, he wondered how much “we did not know each other as members
of different ethnic groups. Where does the Amhara know the Somali, or the Afar?”
he asked in wonderment. Then he lowered his voice and stressed that TPLF’s
success in resolving those historical contradictions has been unbelievably effective.
This is because it has been able to create the mobility of people and capital. He
made it sound, as if in the past there had been laws that prohibited popular
mobility, and as if Tigrayans, among others, never settled by choice in different
parts of the country. With a strong stress on his syllables, he made it clear that the
TPLF has come through long and hard struggles determined to undo those
inequalities.
“Today,” he added, “different ethnic groups live in peace and harmony.” He then
cited by way of example how the Amharas live in peace with Tigrayans, the
Somalis with Tigrayans, Afars, Somalis and others. He claimed this is because it
“has strengthened the country’s unity and close relations of people of all ethnic
groups more than any time before”. Consequently, with a sense of smug
satisfaction, he observed that Ethiopia has now become “a country where not a
single group is angry with the government”( emphasis by the writer).
The seeds of disunity that have become invisible to the TPLF
Perhaps, Ato Sebhat does not seem to be aware of the real situation in the country,
or he may have considered some events and incidents not appropriate for public
ears. The fact is that, in submitting his office’s performance report to parliament
on 12 June, Ato Worqneh Gebeyhu, commissioner of police, indicated that within
ten months of fiscal year 2008/2009 (six months already in 2009), twelve ethnic
conflicts had taken place in ten months in different parts of the country and
hundreds of people, including policemen had died. Pressed by parliamentarians, On
a related matter, Ato Worqneh disclosed that several members of the police had
resigned their posts for various reasons, according to local media sources.
Such problems have even become obstacle to national development in different
parts of the country. One latest report on the media shows that construction has
been interrupted for seven yeas, for instance, between Oromia and parts of Somali
region since 2002. First time, it was stopped because of the war in the Ogaden and
second time due to inter-ethnic conflicts, partly a fall out of the Ogaden war and
partly because of resources scarcity. The outcome now is that people in those
parts of the two regions remain without access to services, despite that part of the
country being prone to malaria. The health ministry has also identified it for its
high incidence of HIV/aids. Worst of all, the road construction company that had a
39 million birr contract for 52 km of road has gone bankrupt before it completed
its work, due to destruction of all his equipment ensuing from this situation. It is
also reported that the remaining assets of the owner of the construction company
have been seized because of unpaid bank loans.
- This in view, I saw
clearly in Ato Sebhat’s
words the slippery path
into which the TPLF has
been dragging the
country, including itself.
Be it known, nevertheless,
that Ethiopia is more
divided today than ever
before. Moreover, the
‘bantustanization’ of
ethnic groups has
diminished the chances of
many to aspire and feel
beyond their localities.
This has obliterated the concept and possibilities for imbuing the young in the
different ethnic groups with a sense of national identity. In brief, Ethiopia is simply
a fable in the minds of the young, especially those born after the TPLF seized
power. In this regard, Germany, as one of Ethiopia’s foremost aid providers, has
recognized the inherent danger in this. In its website, the federal ministry
responsible for foreign economic development and cooperation writes,
“Decentralisation has not yet led to the hoped-for political integration within the
country, though, and ethnic conflicts are worsening in some regions.”
In all this, one thing is clear. Ato Sebhat’s mental absence about what is taking
place in the country was too manifest. A case in point, which is terribly
bothersome, is his obliviousness to the bloody war of the past few years in the
Ogaden and the live trenches therein still today, which have been a subject of
international condemnations and United Nations investigation and monitoring.
Similarly, the continuous low-intensity conflicts in different parts of the country,
the largest one being in Oromia, and the plight of the many political prisoners for
Ato Sebhat have become simply too invisible. Surely, there is no doubt that he
knows too well that any challenge to the undemocratic nature and behaviour of the
TPLF always ends up in disappearances or long-term incarceration. That has been,
for instance, the fate of the luminous and courageous Judge Birtukan Mideksa,
President of UDJ, one of the strongest opposition parties in Ethiopia, a situation
that has made her a living symbol of freedom much as her sister in tribulation
Aung San Sui Kyi of Myanmar. Many such prisoners as Ms. Mideksa are locked in
because of their devotion to the cause of human freedom, democracy the rule of
law, and human dignity both for themselves and for their fellow citizens.
In terms of substance, therefore, Ato Sebhat sounded like a man who demands to
be listened and, determined as he was, to bring others to his side. “We are in
power with the appropriate programme for Ethiopia’s development,” Ato Sebhat
declared. Most strikingly, he added, “The TPLF is only in caretaker capacity until
it liquidates itself with capitalism’s development, at which time it would hand over
power to the bourgeoisie”! At this point, I must confess, I was totally lost. I am
not sure still, whether he was talking about Ethiopians as a whole becoming
bourgeois or the exclusive transformation of TPLF members as a class, given the
wealth EFFORT has amassed.
Corporate TPLF, top most investor passes dividends to invisible
beneficiaries
As EFFORT’s first chairperson, Ato Sebhat told publicly for the first time that
EFFORT is ‘the single largest and wealthiest investor at the top of businesses in
Ethiopia today.’ He revealed that it is involved in the country’s ‘strategic services’
such as transport, construction, as well as playing active role in agriculture,
financial services, other development projects, industries and factories, etc. He
also disclosed that the TPLF still has an export-import company in London. Recall
in this connection, a British consultancy firm and mainstream newspaper in 2005
disclosed the existence of conduit in a poor country such as Ethiopia whose
siphoned off capital to European banks had reached 503 percent.
As to the beneficiaries of EFFORT, Ato Sebhat was unequivocal that by law it is
Tigrayan property. In the same breath, he added, “Tigrayans are not the direct
beneficiaries.” After the slippage of those words, he retreated to stop before he
muddied TPLF’s face in the eyes of its diehard and trusting Tigrayan members.
Therefore, he rephrased his words and redefined “beneficiaries” to mean the
Ethiopian economy.
The pathetic baloney in his explanation is the foreign exchange that he said
EFFORT had managed to bring into the country when it sold its assets in foreign
countries at different times, all of which, he said went to the benefit of Ethiopia.
While the essence of his words signals an air of dubiousness, clearly the sense of
the sum of the magnitude he conveyed did not add up at all to its individual parts.
For instance, Wegagen bank to which Ato Sebhat Nega is board chairman is the
once that collected the foreign exchange, instead of the Commercial Bank of
Ethiopia. If TPLF is willing to disprove this, it should come with explanation how
Wegagen came to be the source of foreign exchange to the many TPLF purchases
such as equipment and other items that financed the loans.
Evidently, as far as both the Ethiopian economy and especially the people of
Tigray, in whose name EFFORT does its businesses, are concerned, TPLF’s
ethos is what is mine is mine, what is yours is mine too!
TPLF’s self-liquidation becomes its new line of deception
Much as TPLF’s self-liquidation has puzzled the VOA interviewer, I am also one
of those who wonder why after all elections should be organized in Ethiopia. Based
on what Ato Sebhat has said, it seems logical to assume that legitimization of
power by the voice of the electorate is of secondary importance. It is something
that could wait for the flourishing of capitalism and the self-liquidation of the
TPLF! In other words, if election cannot produce changes the electorate desires,
what point is there in wasting time and resources in organizing them. The
interviewer pursued this further hoping to squeeze out of his guest if the TPLF as
a matter of law and political practice would respect the outcome of elections. Ato
Sebhat’s response was in the affirmative. His hesitance is strikingly evident
though, which he coated with stress on TPLF’s programme being the best for
Ethiopia.
At the same time, Ato Sebhat resorted to the usual TPLF sideswiping of the
persistent call in the country for democratic change through the ballot box. He said
we have already seen their control of Addis Ababa, without mentioning CUD by
name, and implying that they tried to chew more than they could bite. Then he
added that is in the nature of the power hungry i.e., they often look for a shortcut
to power. Still he advised that anyone of them could come with acceptable
alternative programme that is not in conflict with the constitution—the usual TPLF
catch for which it has earned singular distinction. Unfortunately, Ato Sebhat
refrained from elaborating how and who would determine what programme is
acceptable and constitutional. Nonetheless, the experience to date is unmistakable.
Obedience to the constitution, unlike the government, is a duty stringently reposed
on citizens.
Unmistakable similarities between Ato Meles and Ato Sebhat’s
thinking
The crucial junction where Ato Sebhat’s thinking and Ato Meles’s meet is TPLF’s
indefinite stay in power. Ato Sebhat poorly discusses the mechanics and is only
certain that the measures must be the full blossoming of capitalism in Ethiopia, at
which time the TPLF would hand over power to the bourgeoisie. Ato Meles has
placed its context in Ethiopia’s development, although his is also an analysis
preformatted by a pre-existing conclusion, instead of the analysis leading to a
conclusion. In his 2006 treatise, African Development: Dead Ends and New
Beginnings, he insists that revolutionary democracy—TPLF—must remain in
power, as necessity by itself when possible and with coalition with others even
with rightist parties when dictated by circumstances. The justification is to provide
policy consistency and leadership continuity. Ato Meles implies in his writing that
he puts the ceiling to fifty years. Perhaps, who knows, capitalism could flourish
by then, as Ato Sebhat promised, the TPLF, would pack up, and take its leave to
the next upper class.
A regime with such agenda turns out to be manipulative, as in constant
demonstration is the total divorce between its official preaching and its unlawful
practices. Add to this, official TPLF press conferences and its press releases,
which is top and centre replete with denials. More frightening is the fact of the
TPLF’s ease in being fast and loose with the truth, because of which few
Ethiopians give little weight to what the government of Ethiopia says. Worst of all,
troubling to many is its lack of credibility to shoulder the responsibility of
defending the country’s honour, sovereignty, territorial integrity and its long-term
interests. Experience has already shown Ethiopians how Assab was voluntarily
given away.
TPLF could not help it—the EPLF took Assab!
Ato Sebhat told the VOA, “the TPLF did not give away Assab to the EPLF. It took
it. Before we [TPLF] entered Addis Ababa, for a while the EPLF had already been
in control of Asmara and Assab.” From the voice of the interviewer, I could hear
his agony and pain, his silent rage and a heap of contempt to his guest. He calmly
asked to ensure if he had heard him right the first time, “was the EPLF in control
of Asmara and Assab even while the Dergue was in power?” Ato Sebhat
unblinkingly said, “Yes, even when the Dergue was there.”
Surprises never end, as far as the TPLF is concerned. However, one thing the
interviewer ought to ask was about the fertile lands of western Ethiopia that have
been ceded to the Sudan in a secret deal barely three years ago. Not that we do not
know the facts, but Ato Sebhat’s response would have added one more material
evidence to the long list of TPLF’s lies and credibility crisis. Moreover, for
instance, which Ethiopian cannot see or understand today that, among others,
Ethiopia’s foreign policy has been for a quite sometime, especially since 2005, at
the auction block to the highest bidder.
Leading contenders for now are China, which sees Ethiopia as its gateway to
Africa and provides good aid package and low interest credits. Another
frontrunner that officially has focussed on the economy is Germany. For three
years, Germany has provided 96 million euros until 2011. It exerts enormous
influences on Addis Ababa. In a recent visit, a high-level German official lauded
Ethiopian democracy. Germany has also benefited handsomely from economic
returns through the investments of its nationals.
GTZ, in collaboration with its fellows GTZ/CIM, KfW and DED, is Berlin’s
operation arm in Ethiopia and is the largest foreign aid office worldwide by any
donor country. In Ethiopia, GTZ has more than 200 foreign experts and around
425 national Staff, according to information by the agency. As I expressed my
disquiet in another article a few months back, it operates on behalf of the Ethiopian
government in dealing with other international donors, especially in matters
involving bids and contracts to hire construction companies and initiate
construction projects. In a country that had safeguarded its independence all these
thousands of years, it is repulsive that a foreign government agency be allowed to
operate on behalf of our government. Partly because of their interests, Ethiopian
construction company owners have already made their concerns known.
Certainly, until recently on the political and security fronts, the United States has
been the boss with the largest humanitarian aid to Ethiopia and in the fight against
HIV/aids with appreciable consistency. Nevertheless, the entire focus of the Bush
administration had been on its security interests and ensuring that the government
is accepted by other donors. With the Obama administration, things are likely to
change. Initially, they are likely to engage the government in a dialogue to impress
on the regime to change its undemocratic ways.
In a VOA interview on 18 June, Ambassador Jonnie Carson, the new assistant
secretary of state for Africa, made it clear for the second time, “We will want to
talk to the Ethiopian government about opening political space, strengthening
institutions, having greater involvement of civil society and more respect for the
rights of individual in the economic and political sphere.” At the same time, the
Obama administration seems to try to put its money where its mouth is. There are
signs to engage in Ethiopia in agricultural productivity growth in view of the fact
that Ethiopia’s agriculture has failed citizens, despite the massive resources that
have been poured into agriculture in the past eighteen years, which the regime used
mostly to rally the farming population into becoming its political base.
Pulling strings to consolidate the reign of terror
One of the purposes of Ato Sebaht Nega’s latest visit to the US is to explain to the
Tigrayan community the rationale of Ato Meles’s latest decision to return Eritrean
properties to their legitimate owners. Citizens of the two countries were disowned
unlawfully more than ten years ago by both Ethiopia and Eritrea as they went to
war in 1998. Understandably, this latest decision has irritated some TPLF
members or other Tigrayans on behalf of their relatives or friends who have lost
properties in Eritrea or, allegedly those in other parts of Ethiopia who have taken
over Eritrean properties and are not enthusiastic in returning them.
In explaining the rationale of this measure, one point Ato Sebhat kept on repeating
is the security condition that necessitated such measure in the past is no longer
there now. Notwithstanding that by implication, he was justifying the Eritrean
action. Ato Sebhat explained that today Ethiopia is at peace internally and stable.
Therefore, those properties needed to be returned to their legitimate owners.
Supposedly, is this an attempt to fish propaganda coup against the TPLF implying
by this action that Eritrea is not at peace?
TPLF’s rationale notwithstanding, first of all the decision ought to be seen within
the context of the indignities both peoples have suffered. To start with, it was a
huge mistake that both governments paraded each other’s citizens, robbed them of
their properties and threw them out as if they were dirt. Unfortunate, as it is, this
latest mistake is vulgar and self-serving, if not for anything, at least for ignoring
the indignities suffered by Ethiopians and their lost properties. For that matter, it
neither atones for past mistakes against ordinary Eritreans; nor does it show
concern about the new pains it inflicts on those Ethiopians Eritrea has mistreated in
the same way by robbing them of their properties and human dignities.
Worst of all, the push behind the decision is hardly internal peace and security in
Ethiopia, as Ato Sebhat alleges. TPLF has three objectives in mind. The first one is
to divert public attention in Ethiopia form the crushing economic malaise and the
overall frustration by attempting to incite nationalist sentiments against Isayias
Afeworki, portraying him as a rogue bully at the corner who has stolen Ethiopian
properties. Secondly, for the increasing number of Ethiopian resistance groups
Isayias Afeworki has become a godfather. This has deeply worried the TPLF.
Because of that, the TPLF has turned to the Eritrean people trying to court their
favour through this latest decision. Thirdly, in view of the worsening economic
conditions in Ethiopia, the TPLF hopes that returning Eritrean properties could
encourage them to engage in businesses in Ethiopia, possibly attracting more
capital from abroad, helping revive the economy, and even bringing in initially
more foreign exchange through the Eritrean diaspora, who would also be
encouraged to visit families and tourism.
Nevertheless, for many who heard Ato Sebhat, his claim of peace and security
sounded hollow. Some chatted on the internet and wrote their views to the effect
that, if there is such peace questioning as to why there is continuing tension
between citizens and government. Surely, the TPLF could be prepared to accuse
them of being ARENA sympathizers. The fact is, however, the unanswered
question is what compels ‘a stable government in a peaceful country’ to continue
to deny the democratic rights of its citizens, i.e., free press, freedom of speech,
the right to assemble and organize, the rule of law, independent courts, etc., and
even choose to disable civil society organizations.
For many, the strongest indicator is the latest undemocratic anti-terrorism law that
belies TPLF’s claim of sense of security and the country’s stability. Unless a
government is insecure, there is no reason for putting heavy axe of the law and
law enforcement against dissent, as its so-called anti-terrorism law does. A nation
with a united purpose and goal would have reposed its attention and resources to
target the real terrorists, extremists and fundamentalists of all forms, instead of
directing itself against citizens aspiring for their democratic rights. In its editorial,
The Reporter last week wrote, “We are deeply concerned that, under the guise of
fighting terrorism, respect for fundamental human rights, the rule of law, press
freedom and all other civil rights, have fallen under imminent danger more than
ever before.”
The truth is that the TPLF does not want citizens to know that it is desperate
because of two reasons: the economy is in severe crisis and the forthcoming
election would provide opportunities to demonstrate public rejection of it.
Therefore, to date in preparation for that, the TPLF has left not a thing untried
within its means, including its capacity at locking peaceful citizens and/or
butchering them for no offence at all. The army and the security machineries
gobble up 15 percent of Ethiopia’s GDP, according to Business Monitor
International, and are ready to butcher once again peaceful protestors, empowered
by the latest proclamation notable for its anti-constitutional and anti human rights
accent.
Last Friday’s warning mixed with stretching olive branches to the contending
parties by Ayatollah Khamenei, the spiritual leader of Iran, who is apparently
worried about the row over election fraud, pales by comparison to the recent pre-
election warning by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. VOA’s Peter Heilein writes,
“Prime Minister Meles Zenawi warned that government forces would have little
tolerance for street protests.” He quotes the prime minister saying, “The 2005
experience was experience enough for anybody to be able to learn from, and so
I'm sure our law enforcement entities will be much better prepared for any
eventuality than they were in 2005, not only in terms of handling riots, but also in
terms of deterring and preventing riots.”
It is in a way, evidence of the regime’s insecurity. Ato Meles revealed to Africa
Confidential of 3 May, “We may have some foreign exchange constraints but
those constraints are already beginning to ease. So in balance, we hope and expect
that it will be a permissive economic environment for a peaceful and successful
election” in 2010 (emphasis by the writer). This is the first time the government
has openly spoken of such concerns, i.e. the danger of the simmering political and
economic discontents in the country. Against the prime minister’s feigned
optimism to the media, however, the economic reality is ugly, with little likelihood
of its improvement, let alone before the 2010 election even in the medium-term.
The gathering storm & Ato Meles’s predicament
What Ato Sebhat avoided discussing is the economic crisis, which is likely to
undermine the TPLF. Politically, all these years the TPLF has waded through its
unpopularity by imprisoning and eliminating its opponents. What it cannot do now
is turn around the country’s economy, which for some years has been heading in
the wrong direction. The government is waking up very late in the day, after
economic decline has exposed all its weaknesses, the outcome of the faulty
policies it has pursued this long.
Ato Meles has known this for sometime, although real awareness has set in only
lately, as he was preoccupied for a while in his decision to leave or not to leave.
Already last spring, he was in denial that the Ethiopian economy is in any danger.
When the reality proved him wrong especially in the autumn of 2008, his first act
was to order his forces in March to raid coffee exporters’ stores, seize their
coffees, and export them to get badly needed foreign exchange. It earned his
government $21 million in foreign exchange, for that matter, at low market prices
that the exporters wanted to dodge. Among the expropriated exporters were many
well-known exporters the regime had earlier awarded prizes acknowledging their
superior performances. Now Ato Meles realizes that his action was wrong, and
feels concerned that the international community would accuse him of not
respecting property rights and the rule of law. Therefore, as a matter of habit for
him, the best solution is to charge the exporters with attempts to sabotage the
government’s efforts at national development. Thank God, this time he has not
applied charges of genocide or attempts at subverting the constitution!
All that this shows is Ato Meles’s desperation. He is aware that the TPLF would
not tolerate the reversal of its fortunes. Therefore, instead of taking appropriate
policy measures and solutions, on one hand Ato Meles has chosen to play political
theatrics announcing his interest in parting, without even sharing his intention first
formally or informally with his colleagues in leadership, who heard all about it
from the media. On the other hand, since February he has been making the loudest
SOS (Save Our Souls) in the name of Africa, calling for increased foreign aid.
Lest, he warned repeatedly that many African states would become failed or failing
states. Of course, he has not mentioned that Ethiopia under his leadership is one of
those countries. Ato Meles’s strategy now seems to be to yelp holding the donor
community responsible for all the mess, which partly is true, but not entirely.
Perhaps, this is seemingly a smart move coming from him, before his party begins
to look around to replace him. Clearly, TPLF would not be interested in losing its
position of strength, or welcome new shareholders emerging now on the back of
economic and political crises. However, what is astounding is how either instinct
of the Tigrayan elites within the TPLF, including the army brass, or even the
intellect of the elites abroad has failed to see the regime’s slippery path this long.
When the leadership realized, as late as Ato Meles himself did, for all of them it
was no time to apportion blame while the fire is gutting out everything. They
recognize that the problem is already beyond them. In the light of this, due to the
lack of option, the internal consensus within the TPLF seems to be to focus to
limiting the cascading effects of the negative economic and political developments.
What are those negative consequences and developments Ato Meles has been
talking of lately? Part IV of this article would present a complete analysis and
prognosis of the Ethiopian economy. Weak economy is the source of political
insecurity for the TPLF, strengthening its opponents, who are as unprepared in the
real sense of the word. In the meantime, the unpopularity of the regime has been
increasingly turning it into the extreme right, in both policy choices and its
disrespect for fundamental human rights and the rule of law.
Its move against the tide is creating internal restlessness within the TPLF, growing
resistance within the country, and sings of betrayal are in evidence that those
ethnic fronts it has arrayed around it are bidding their time to desert. Meanwhile,
the Ethiopian economy would go through the worst in the medium-term, before
seeing promising signs of recovery. We all need to pray in earnest our country
would not fall into the trap of needless bloodletting.
.
(To be continued…)
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