ETHIOPIA: TROUBLING TIMES & TROUBLING ACTIONS
29 March, 2009 | Genet Mersha | 29 March 2009

In this article, I would like to discuss five issues of relevance to all of us that have
troubled me in recent days. These are: (a) the brewing controversy over
government seizure of coffee from some exporters, (b) the convoluted sense of
rights within the TPLF/EPRDF universe, (c) the measure of government integrity
in Ethiopia, (d) the looming danger of ethnicized politics & power, as recently
demonstrated by the not-meant-to-be Mekelle and Tübingen sisterhood, and (e)
German technical cooperation operations in Ethiopia and the concept of cost
recovery.

A.   NOT COFFEE TIME

At present, the shortage of foreign exchange has become an enormous challenge
to the government of Ethiopia. Export earnings have been going down for a long
time; remittances, foreign bank credits and foreign aid are almost drying up. On
top of that, the economy’s supply side (production) has been operating for
sometime now on significantly reduced capacity. Exports across the board have
been below target for sometime now. Drought and famine are still claiming their
victims and have contributed to contraction of the economy. Measures the
government has taken to dampen demand to subdue inflation, especially money in
circulation and reduction of government domestic borrowing and expenditures,
and importation of wheat are proving helpful, although inadequate, too late and
with little impact on prices in general and adverse consequences on the foreign
exchange front in particular.

Consequently, the government grew impatient of the clamor by businesses for
foreign exchange, about which the Ethiopian National Bank with its empty coffer
could do nothing. Therefore, on 25 March government revoked the coffee licenses
of six major exporting companies, seized their coffees and downed their
international coffee standard certifications. Moreover, another eighty-eight coffee
supplier unions were shut out with their warehouses stocked with coffee sealed,
according to local and international media. The agriculture ministry has alleged,
“These companies cause big economic damage to the country which has resulted
in the decline of the country’s coffee earnings this year.”

It is not clear whether government has court order for its actions, but it is already
preparing to put the seized coffee to the market through tender processes. Nor is it
clear who would benefit from the proceeds of the tendering processes.

Signals that such measures were in the offing were issued first by Prime Minister
Meles Zenawi on 23 January who, at a meeting with coffee exporters, alleged that
he had received information about collusion between several exporters and their
continuing hoarding of the coffee beans. As of this writing, his government has
not initiated any legal processes against the exporters. However, one thing is
certain: the government wants the coffee sold immediately so that it could cash in
the much-needed foreign exchange.

Whether innocent or guilty as charged, the exporters are caught between two hard
places: on one hand a business environment without adequate market risk
management—at a time when volatility in the commodity markets is moving in
rapid sequences—and on the other their presumed obligation to satisfy the needs
of a government starving for foreign exchange. Especially since mid-2008, the
dynamics of the market has changed, mostly characterized by trend declines in
stock markets and the prevailing uncertainty in the currency markets, especially
vis-à-vis the dollar, forcing international investors to seek refuge in commodity
markets.

In turn, this created a great deal of volatility in commodity prices for which our
exporters are not prepared. While the Ethiopian Commodities Exchange (ECX) is a
timely innovation, ECX’s support and role in risk management has yet to develop,
particularly as concerns forward and futures markets and researches on market
technicals. Hence, at this stage, ECX is in no position to provide any help to its
coffee exporters in respect of the international markets, other than the
transmission of international prices, mostly from the Chicago exchange. While the
Ethiopian coffee exporters may have factored the price situation in their decisions,
unfortunately their reluctance to put their warehouse stocks to the market has been
too slow for government. Nonetheless, whatever the reality, government
perception is this inaction was a sabotage directed against ECX.

It is to be recalled that on January 23 the coffee exporters had pleaded to the prime
minister that they were squeezed by market conditions, including one of them
humoring him by saying “we love the ECX.” Assuming for a moment, the motive
of the exporters is to bid their time for higher prices, the trend in international
coffee prices (Arabica) since April 2008 seem to agree with their concerns. For
instance, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) data show that the average
price per pound in 2008 was 139.78 cents, even when the price trend between
April–December 2008 was marked by sharp declines from 147.36 to 118.97 cents
per pound. Since January 2009, the monthly price has shown an increase of 10
cents over the December price of 118.97, a far cry from the average price of
139.78 cents in 2008. This change again was symptomatic of investor flight from
a weakening dollar and beaten stocks that until last week were determined on a
downward trend.

    Not that scheming over
    prices and market
    distortions should be
    tolerated, but there is
    nothing out of the
    ordinary about businesses
    choosing to wait for
    favorable moments in the
    market place. Otherwise,
    how could businesses
    maintain a decent level of
    performance and capture
    values for their capital,
    expand their businesses,
    take care of their debts,
    pay their employees and
    benefit the wider society?
If indeed government is solely driven by its serious problem of foreign exchange,
this situation represents the height of collision between private property rights and
the boundless powers of the state. It would not be hard to imagine the adverse
reaction of the international business community, which, even under ‘normal’
circumstances, and for various reasons has not yet shed its wariness of
investment in Ethiopia. With the latest coffee debacle, I fear that once again
Ethiopian has been dealt another blow in terms of its prospects, which otherwise
could have made it a likely African investment destination.

In the light of this, the actions of the government give rise to serious questions of
rights of a businessperson over his or her products and the freedom over the
strategies he or she pursues to ensure the success of their endeavors. Until
sufficient evidence is provided to the courts of law, this question would hark back
to the deeply entrenched controversy over the core human rights issues, including
the rule of law, which especially ever since 2005 has terribly debilitated the
TPLF/EPRDF image, damaged its relations with the wider society. The fact of the
matter is that, ensconced in its universe of ‘collective rights’ and perennial denials
of the existence of individual rights, government has once again failed to step up
and make an effort toward peace with the Ethiopian people.

Let us be frank, despite the hullabaloo of foreign direct investment, Ethiopia has
barely benefited from international investments, especially direct foreign
investment, as it should have. Even then, government keeps on publicizing, along
side the few ones with $300,000 capital, its record of the huge number of small
projects with patchy impacts on a given locality, let alone at national development.
The truth is that, even by the admission of government statistics, close to sixty
percent of these neither has reached fruition nor are operationalzed. If I remember
correctly, a few weeks ago
The Reporter had made this issue a subject of one of
its editorials with a view to capturing the attention of the authorities.

In terms of the problems of foreign exchange shortage, I agree with the
assessment of Mr. Ken Ohashi, the World Bank’s Country Director for Ethiopia
and Sudan, who recently indicated delicately the need for Ethiopia to re-examine
carefully its “export and import trajectories.” Part of his article, which appeared on
the
World Bank webpage, under the title, World Bank: Sustaining Growth: A Way
Forward, reads,

Private investment, while very strong in select sectors, has not responded to the
increasing opportunities on the scale needed to keep the supply side of the
economy growing fast enough. Various analyses indicate that investors still find
the ‘business climate’ in Ethiopia not good enough for a major investment rush
that could have avoided this supply problem…This does not mean the basic
strategy is wrong. I think it can still be viable, and I hope it will prove successful.
I believe, however, some mid-course corrections may be necessary. To give a
more considered answer, we will have to examine carefully the possible export and
import trajectories.

B.   REFLECTION ON THE RECORDS

At this very moment, the challenges facing Ethiopia are enormous. Through the
years, many great opportunities that would have enabled the country to address
effectively its knotty hurdles along the country’s path to national development have
been slipping away. One reason for that is the serious lack of open-mindedness
and flexibility on the part of government. The ruling party’s heavy reliance on the
strength of its muscles remain the very sources of its inability to unite the country
behind consensual programs, boost confidence, garner following and lead the
country to a better future. Instead, governance with siege mentality, vindictiveness
and corruption of politics remain not only a
modus operandi but also an obsession.
If anything, this has only led the country from one debacle to another.

One thing this government has failed to learn is the ability to listen to the people.
Constant lecturing down, stretching the truth or habitual denials would scarcely
make our problems to evaporate. I say this for a reason. When the issues of
democracy, civil and human rights are brought up, government defense is to
shatter its critics, while after eighteen years in power it still is comparing its
records with that of the previous regimes, especially the Dergue. This by itself is
not only disingenuous but also comes as a reflection of a sense of inadequacy that
has set in within the TPLF/EPRDF government. The Dergue had been their sworn
enemy, its records cruel and atrocious. There is no love lost between the Dergue
and the Ethiopian people, including within opposition forces of different
persuasions. If that is the case, why use it as a basis for comparison, as if the
Dergue were the standard or the norm to measure success? Why after all look
backwards when human possibilities are infinite?

When that is not the line of their argument, they point to the roads built, bridges,
buildings standing and power sources under construction. Surely, these are
important endeavors—no doubt about that. Nonetheless, to see them as a
substitute for other shortcomings especially in respect of rights is self-serving and
myopic. Their argument seems to insinuate that the TPLF/EPRDF has done
Ethiopia a favor. This arrogant view ignores the fact that what ever has been
achieved is not out of benevolence, but as part of the duties of a government.
What is then the responsibility of a government other than building schools,
bridges, infrastructures to ensure national development and improve the lives of
the people?

The individual rights of citizens and the right to national development are
inextricably intertwined. One is not a substitute for the other. If that were not the
case, the world should have lauded Kim Jong-il, who has built in North Korea
nuclear power and is now preparing to launch satellite to space in early April.
While Kim Jong-il is fiddling with his nuclear toys, hundreds and thousands of
North Koreans have become dependent on foreign charities, in a manner no
different from many of our compatriots in our country’s drought-affected regions.

C.   INTEGRITY AS A SOURCE OF STRENGTH

Recently a video presentation of Ato Bereket Simon about the functions of his new
office—government communication agency—and his role as spokesperson of the
government made me ask a few questions.  In essence, Ato Bereket’s message
claims that he is serving, “a developmental government which is engaged in
development activities.” He added, “Of course, this is a democratic government
which is engaged in protecting the rights of citizens…This government has lots of
new ideas that have been tried in practice and proven to be fruitful…
[Nevertheless], the ideas of the government have not been clear to all.” As far as
he was concerned, his duty as spokesperson is to sale the ideas of the government
to the people. He also indicated that the TPLF/EPRDF has shown the public how
good it is and hence the people would vote for it.

In a country going through hard times, one thing is constant—support for the
government is unshakable. His sense of assurance over the government’s success
is striking. However, in reality the situation of governance, leadership maturity and
its consistency is hardly reassuring, especially when it comes to the rule of law, as
evidenced, among others, by the recent conflict between government powers and
private property rights.

If one were to take comparison of leadership, the example of Malaysia has a lesson
to offer to Ethiopian leaders. Here we are not talking about the level of
advancement, especially the economy, which has made Malaysia one of the Asian
Tigers, or level of education and technology. For in stance, the outgoing Prime
Minister Abdullah Badawi, whose ruling party is going through a crisis of its own
never seen in its 52 years in power, last week admonished his party warning that
UMNO (Union of Malaysian National Organization) has faced "a life and death
situation." After nominating his successor, the new prime minister, Mr. Badawi
called upon his ruling party to "come to its senses and reform", to fight its
plunging popularity. He said UMNO would perish if it continued to silence critics,
jail opponents and discriminate against minority Chinese and Indian citizens of the
country.

In comparison to Ato Bereket’s demagoguery on the video of the stale polices of
his party, the outgoing prime minister of Malaysia has shed light on Malaysian
leadership which goes a long way in serving his party and his country well in the
coming years. Similarly, this lesson provided by Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi is
pertinent to Ethiopian opposition groups as well. As a leader in an ethnically divided
country and at the apex of power, and he himself being a Malayan in a country
dominated by a Malayan ruling party, Abdullah Badawi was advocating for the
defense of the civil rights of other nationality groups to oppose and criticize their
government. That is possible only for a leader free from the siege mentality and the
sheer defense of personal powers that has become too evident in our country’s
politics.  

D.   THE LOOMING DANGER OF ETHNICIZED POLITICS & POWER

The last several years have clearly shown that the country’s politics has paved
conditions that severely challenge our national integrity and Ethiopian identity. One
of its recent tragic manifestations is the protest of a number of Ethiopians over the
possible selection of Mekelle as a sister to the German city of Tübingen. While the
anger of those citizens is a reaction against the TPLF/EPRDF policies, I submit,
demonstrating in opposition to Mekelle or showing preference to either of the two
other African contending cities is terribly misguided. Mekelle is ours; it is an
Ethiopian city. No matter how much the politics of the ruling party has embittered
many of our citizens, all Tigraians are Ethiopians. Moreover, we all are brothers
and sisters by virtue of our values, shared identity and belongingness.

The fundamental question here is that, would a person who has demonstrated
against the selection of Mekelle also favor its secession to join Eritrea, Sudan or
whatever. Surely not! If that were the case, only a politics restrained from
personalized attacks and ethnic targeting would save our country from being
sucked into the vortex of ethnic animosity and hatred.

Africa has had enough of that and there is no victor there. So far, our tradition of
tolerance, perseverance and sense of consideration to one another has helped our
country avoid the path of civil war and disintegration, despite past and present
machinations to take us that way.

E.   FOREIGN AID & COST RECOVERY

Germany is one of Ethiopia’s largest export markets in Europe. Germany sees
Ethiopia a priority country for German development aid. Since relations began fifty
years ago, Germany has provided Ethiopia 1.3 billion euros, according to German
statistics (2007). In 2008, Germany pledged euro 96 million for 2009-2011.
Development cooperation focuses on three areas: urban development and
decentralization, sustainable land management and sustainable economic
development.

The Ethiopian department of GTZ IS is the largest worldwide. It has more than
200 foreign experts and around 425 national Staff, according to the agency. It
operates on commission paid by the Ethiopian government and international
donors. Since 1995, GTZ has maintained an office in Ethiopia and in 2006 the
German development organizations GTZ/CIM, KfW and DED moved into the
"German House" in Addis Ababa.

Stefan Helm, the head GTZ, told
Addis Fortune last week that GTZ has been
involved in Ethiopia for several years in building capacity in sustainable use of
natural resources, engineering urban governance. In clearer terms, its
involvements are especially in University Campus Building Program (UCBP), health
centre construction, and low cost housing.. Its job is management, not
construction. It is also involved in the World Bank financed basic services project.

GTZ works together with many different partners for sustainable development –
including the ministries of education, capacity building, health, mines and energy,
as well as the Addis Ababa housing development project office, the World Bank,
the European Union, and UNDP/GEF. In brief, the role of GTZ in Ethiopia is like
an executing agency with enormous influences and highly attractive
remunerations. According to Mr. Stefan Helm, GTZ is “acting as a representative
of the Ethiopian government.” MH Engineering is an Ethiopian private engineering
company handpicked by GTZ as its local partner in Ethiopia.

What caught my attention was the concept of cost recovery by a foreign agency
in a purely local government-funded project. The point here is that, for instance,
GTZ has been the management agency for the construction of the thirteen
universities that are built with Ethiopian government financing. Its construction
staff, other than locals, and the foreign experts are brought from Germany paid by
the Ethiopian government—they call this arrangement capacity building. The
payment to GTZ, Mr. Helm calls it is cost recovery. In fact, he expressed the view,

We can proudly report that the construction of the buildings in the university
program is faster, and the cost is lower than comparable projects. We feel that the
government is getting a good bargain. I can put it this way. The savings, of
course, come from the GTZ, and then is invested into the capacity building.
Because we are also experts, we are also working in the construction industry to
make it more competitive. And these are the funded projects.

This is a unique sort of cost recovery and capacity building arrangement between
government in a developing country and an arm of a donor foreign government.
Who determines the costs and savings? What formulae are applied? How are the
books audited? There is also complaint from local construction firms that have not
found foot in GTZ managed projects. Selection of firms is by competitive bidding,
final decision made by GTZ and MH Engineering. According to
Addis Fortune,
those construction firms opposed to the arrangement see it as an employment
opportunity for German citizens. Either the story is misunderstood, or government
has not paid attention to it!
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Previous Articles
by Genet Mersha
Ethiopia: Troubling Times &
Troubling Actions
29 March, 2009| Genet Mersha - " The
individual rights of citizens and the right to
national development are inextricably
intertwined. One is not a substitute for the
other. If that were not the case, the world
should have lauded Kim Jong-il, who has
built in North Korea nuclear power..."
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