WOULD MELES ZENAWI TRULY DEPART,
AS HE HAS PROMISED, OR WOULD HE BECOME
THE GREY EMINENCE OF ETHIOPIAN POLITICS?

By Genet Mersha | May 31, 2009

Part I
    Surely, since the last few months, in what has already
    become his studied line, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
    has repeatedly spoken of his desire to resign, if his
    party agrees with his request. However, due to the
    existential lack of trust between citizens and
    government, his declaration has been viewed with all
    sorts of doubts and distrust, if not indifference. In
    addition, constant variations in his explanations have
    opened up his motive to severe questioning. Such
    reactions, nonetheless, should not surprise the prime
    minister or anyone for that matter. After all, among
    other things, it is strange experience to Ethiopians—
    especially when a powerful person known for his love
    of power walks away from it without loosing it.

Then came 15 April with its touch of seriousness; the prime minister declared,
“When I leave my current position
one way or another (?), I will leave lock, stock,
and barrel; no ifs, no buts” (underlined by author). Therefore, the two provisos,
(a) seeking approval of his party to quit, and (b) his wish to remain leader of the
EPRDF (14 February), now seem drowned deep in the not so easy
consultations/negotiations within the executive committee of the TPLF/EPRDF.
With respect to “lock, stock, and barrel”, the Oxford English Dictionary (seventh
edition) testifies it means simply “the whole thing, completely.” Similarly, the
Penguin English dictionary puts it as “wholly or completely.”

Moreover, one likely indication of Ato Meles’s readiness to leave his official
activities could also be the draft bill(s) now before parliament, whose expedited
approval has been insisted upon on delivery. One of them contains a generous and
interminable (bequeathable) package of retirement benefits and privileges that
covers the entire family of the prime minister, three cars commensurate with his
protocol, protocol service, driver(s), fuel and running costs paid by the state, villa
with four or five bedrooms and cook(s).

In addition, he would be provided a fully stocked ultra modern office with
secretaries, assistants and round the clock security (for personal, family and
property) at the expense of taxpayers. It would also be the responsibility of the
state to provide health care coverage for the entire family, both at home and
abroad. These privileges and benefits apply to the president, the deputy prime
minister, the president/vice president of the supreme court (
The Reporter).

Much of the above is copied from the US practice in the Former Presidents Act
(FPA) (Ref: Former Presidents: Federal Pension and Retirement Benefits, 98-249
GOV). Nevertheless, one cannot help feeling deep inside that it is too exorbitant for
Ethiopia, a country so dependent on foreign largesse up to sixty percent of its
national budget and over seventy percent of its population living below the poverty
line. For that matter, the benefits side of the Ethiopian draft bill is padded with
excess pork.  

Even then, I dare say so be it holding my nose between my first and second
fingers, if that is the burden citizens have to bear to temper the arrogance of
power and to persuade their leaders to choose to behave themselves and be held
accountable when they are in power as when they retire. I strongly disagree,
nonetheless, with ex-president Dr. Negaso Gidada, who a few days back argued
that retiring leaders should be free to involve in political activities (
The Reporter). I
have no doubt his intentions are honourable. For that matter, he is active in politics
to change the system both from within and outside, without even being beneficiary
of such huge benefits or privileges, though he was the country’s first ex-president
under TPLF/EPRDF.

This writer prefers imposition of strict conditions of exclusion from political
activities on the beneficiaries of such privileges and benefits, at least, for a period
of five years until the country learns to live and let live with this new and costly
experiment. Society must be prepared to endeavour to prevent by any means
undue interference and influence peddling by privileged retirees. There is no doubt,
if such interference is to be tolerated, they would hamper national policy choices
and government operations, when deemed not beneficial to their personal or
partisan objectives. Furthermore, the importance of including clear terms and
conditions in which these privileges and benefits could be withdrawn cannot be
emphasized sufficiently. This is should not deter the retirees from availing
themselves when those in power
seek their counsels.

Much given to snubbing the rule of law while in office, Ato Meles & Co. should
have ample possibilities to persist in that after retirement. After all, the talk so far
has been about the prime minister leaving the premiership. Nothing is official as far
as leadership of the EPRDF is concerned that he has sought—but unlikely. He
remains chairperson of the TPLF, the core of Ethiopia’s leadership, unless there is
a deal to preclude that as well. TPLF, though losing heart now, is still a very
powerful organization to be reckoned with. Directly and indirectly, it controls the
direction of Ethiopia’s politics, the army and the security, the bureaucracy, the
government-owned bank (CBE & NBE) and the media. Not even professional
associations and religious institutions have been spared of its outstretched control.

In addition, the TPLF is also in direct control of the economy both at policy levels,
institutionally through government machineries and operationally through the
Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT), its multi-billion
dollar business empire, strategically placed throughout the veins and arteries of the
Ethiopian economy. Recall in this connection, a few months back the prime
minister, in his capacity as chair of the TPLF, has appointed his wife as the
second in command of EFFORT. Some see corruption as its motive; others
consider it a political move aiming at family control of TPLF as a politico-
economic-military-security organization.

READING SENTIMENTS

Whereas early on there have been some conjectures in some media what Ato
Meles might do after leaving office, reactions to date have barely elicited tears of
joy or of sadness. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, opinion amongst most
Ethiopians has been sceptical, sharply divided on some aspects of his decision.
Lately, the dropping of his two conditions around the decision have persuaded
some to believe in the possibility that he is determined to go. Others insist that he
would not. The latter are convinced that he might reappear under a different guise
and would continue to exercise power.

Foreign observers seem unimpressed by the prime minister’s decision. Some of
them allude the decision to Barack Obama’s frostiness towards such regimes, as
his inaugural speech made it clear. Recall that he had pointedly warned those
“…who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of
dissent…” He has notified them that they are on the wrong side of history.
    This has become
    Washington’s new
    guiding principle. It was
    officially reiterated in
    some form recently by the
    incoming Assistant
    Secretary of State for
    Africa Ambassador Jonnie
    Carson. On the other
    hand, some foreign
    observers prefer to remain
    cautious seeing Meles’s
    declaration through the
    lens of broken promises
    of Africa’s strongmen.

In fact, over sips of château latour at an occasion, one took off a mental journey
to the seventeenth century France and a visit to Cardinal-Duc de Richelieu’s
cabinet, considered the first prime minister in the world and powerful man of the
church, to draw a possible parallel between the then France and the direction of
Ethiopia’s politics today. De Richelieu, then known as the king’s ‘chief minister,’
had befriended a Capuchin monk by the name of Father Joseph, whom he took as
close friend and confident. Closeness to the heart of power transformed Father
Joseph into a very powerful and influential figure, no less than the prime minister
was. Secretly, even without de Richelieu’s knowledge, Father Joseph he had a
grand dream of organizing a second crusade in Europe to destroy Turkey.

In the seventeenth century France, as catholic country, official attire had both a
code and symbol of level of power. Therefore, because of the grey colour of his
robe, Father Joseph was nicknamed the Grey Eminence (
L'éminence grise), a
term, which ever since has been used to portray a person who exercises power
without holding office. Although de Richelieu was the ultimate source of power
for Father Joseph, in the eyes of outsiders the only difference between the two
was mere formality and colours of their robes. Richelieu’s was red, thus,
distinction necessitating his being nicknamed the Red Eminence (
L'éminence
rouge
).

If ever the transition Ato Meles seems to be engineering were to be realized, it is a
sad irony that the country would have to worry and engage in questioning and
scrutiny of Ato Meles’s actions and motives after retirement, and of those around
him, even if they keep their eyes closed and their hands in solemn places. After all,
history is replete with evidences that, even after their departure, some leaders are
capable of leaving behind a long dark shadow that hovers over everything—
unwanted mostly in so many ways. Especially as a leader, Prime Minister Meles
has been a strong personality, partly because of his formation as organizer and
eventually leader of a strong liberation movement that seized government power
and has all the same militarized society for nineteen long years now.

Therefore, that is the reason why this paper has posed the question whether Ato
Meles would become the Grey Eminence (
L’éminence grise) of Ethiopian politics i.
e., a retired  man with designs who would still continue to exercise the same
power and influence, this time outside the premier’s office. Or, would he honour
his promises and leave ‘lock, stock & barrel’, to borrow his phrase, and become a
spectator to Ethiopia’s progress along a democratic path?
                                    (To be continued…)
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