The future of food riots
11 January, 2011 | By GWYNNE DYER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If all the food in the world were shared out evenly, there would be
enough to go around. That has been true for centuries now: if food
was scarce, the problem was that it wasn’t in the right place, but
there was no global shortage. However, that will not be true much
longer.
Most people in these countries live in cash economies, and a large
proportion live in cities. They buy their food, they don’t grow it.
That makes them very vulnerable because they have to eat almost
as much as people in rich countries do but their incomes are much
lower.
The poor, urban multitudes in these countries (including China and
India) spend up to half of their entire income on food, compared to
only about 10 percent in the rich countries. When food prices soar,
these people quickly find that they simply lack the money to go on
feeding themselves and their children properly – and food prices are
now at an all-time high.
“We are entering a danger territory,” said Abdolreza Abbassian,
chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, on Jan.
5. The price of a basket of cereals, oils, dairy, meat and sugar that
reflects global consumption patterns has risen steadily for six months
and has just broken through the previous record, set during the last
food panic in June, 2008.
“There is still room for prices to go up much higher if, for example,
the dry conditions in Argentina become a drought, and if we start
having problems with winter kill in the northern hemisphere for the
wheat crops,” Abbassian said. After the loss of at least a third of the
Russian and Ukrainian grain crop in last summer’s heat wave and
the devastating floods in Australia and Pakistan, there’s no margin
for error left.
It was Russia and India banning grain exports in order to keep
domestic prices down that set food prices on the international
market soaring. Most countries cannot insulate themselves from this
global price rise, because they depend on imports for a lot of
domestic consumption. But that means that a lot of their population
cannot buy enough food for their families, so they go hungry. Then
they get angry and the riots start.
Is this food emergency a result of global warming? Maybe, but all
these droughts, heat waves and floods could also just be a run of
really bad luck. What is nearly certain is that the warming will
continue, and that in the future there will be many more weather
disasters due to climate change. Food production is going to take a
big hit.
Global food prices are already spiking whenever there are a few
local crop failures, because supply barely meets demand. As the big
emerging economies grow, Chinese, Indian and Indonesian citizens
eat more meat, which places a great strain on grain supplies.
Moreover, the world population is now passing seven billion, on its
way to nine billion by 2050. We will need a lot more food than we
used to.
Some short-term fixes are possible. If the U.S. government ended
the subsidies for growing corn for “bio-fuels” it would return about a
quarter of U.S. crop land to food production. If people ate a little
less meat, if more African land was brought into production, if more
food was eaten and less was thrown away, then maybe we could
buy ourselves another fifteen or twenty years before demand really
outstripped supply.
On the other hand, about a third of all the irrigated land in the world
depends on pumping groundwater up from aquifers that are rapidly
depleting. When the flow of irrigation water stops the yield of that
highly productive land will drop hugely. Desertification is spreading
in many regions and a large amount of good agricultural land is
simply being paved over each year. We have a serious problem
here.
Climate change is going to make the situation immeasurably worse.
The modest warming that we have experienced so far may not be
the main cause of the floods, droughts and violent storms that have
hurt this year’s crops but the rise in temperature will continue
because we cannot find the political will to curb greenhouse-gas
emissions.
The rule of thumb is that we lose about 10 percent of world food
production for every rise of 1 degree Celsius in average global
temperatures. So the shortages will grow and the price of food will
rise inexorably in the future. The riots will return again and again.
In some places, the rioting will turn into revolution. In others, the
rioters will become refugees and push up against the borders of
countries that don’t want to let them in. Or maybe we can get the
warming under control before it does too much damage. Hold your
breath, squeeze your eyes tight shut, and wish for a miracle.
*Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose
articles are published in 45 countries. His latest book, “Climate
Wars,” is distributed in most of the world by Oneworld.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
*Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose
articles are published in 45 countries. His latest book, “Climate
Wars,” is distributed in most of the world by Oneworld.
.
Courtesy
11 January, 2011 | By GWYNNE DYER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If all the food in the world were shared out evenly, there would be
enough to go around. That has been true for centuries now: if food
was scarce, the problem was that it wasn’t in the right place, but
there was no global shortage. However, that will not be true much
longer.
- The food riots began
in Algeria more than
a week ago, and they
are going to spread.
During the last global
food shortage, in
2008, there was
serious rioting in
Mexico, Indonesia,
and Egypt. We may
expect to see that
Most people in these countries live in cash economies, and a large
proportion live in cities. They buy their food, they don’t grow it.
That makes them very vulnerable because they have to eat almost
as much as people in rich countries do but their incomes are much
lower.
The poor, urban multitudes in these countries (including China and
India) spend up to half of their entire income on food, compared to
only about 10 percent in the rich countries. When food prices soar,
these people quickly find that they simply lack the money to go on
feeding themselves and their children properly – and food prices are
now at an all-time high.
“We are entering a danger territory,” said Abdolreza Abbassian,
chief economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization, on Jan.
5. The price of a basket of cereals, oils, dairy, meat and sugar that
reflects global consumption patterns has risen steadily for six months
and has just broken through the previous record, set during the last
food panic in June, 2008.
“There is still room for prices to go up much higher if, for example,
the dry conditions in Argentina become a drought, and if we start
having problems with winter kill in the northern hemisphere for the
wheat crops,” Abbassian said. After the loss of at least a third of the
Russian and Ukrainian grain crop in last summer’s heat wave and
the devastating floods in Australia and Pakistan, there’s no margin
for error left.
It was Russia and India banning grain exports in order to keep
domestic prices down that set food prices on the international
market soaring. Most countries cannot insulate themselves from this
global price rise, because they depend on imports for a lot of
domestic consumption. But that means that a lot of their population
cannot buy enough food for their families, so they go hungry. Then
they get angry and the riots start.
Is this food emergency a result of global warming? Maybe, but all
these droughts, heat waves and floods could also just be a run of
really bad luck. What is nearly certain is that the warming will
continue, and that in the future there will be many more weather
disasters due to climate change. Food production is going to take a
big hit.
Global food prices are already spiking whenever there are a few
local crop failures, because supply barely meets demand. As the big
emerging economies grow, Chinese, Indian and Indonesian citizens
eat more meat, which places a great strain on grain supplies.
Moreover, the world population is now passing seven billion, on its
way to nine billion by 2050. We will need a lot more food than we
used to.
Some short-term fixes are possible. If the U.S. government ended
the subsidies for growing corn for “bio-fuels” it would return about a
quarter of U.S. crop land to food production. If people ate a little
less meat, if more African land was brought into production, if more
food was eaten and less was thrown away, then maybe we could
buy ourselves another fifteen or twenty years before demand really
outstripped supply.
On the other hand, about a third of all the irrigated land in the world
depends on pumping groundwater up from aquifers that are rapidly
depleting. When the flow of irrigation water stops the yield of that
highly productive land will drop hugely. Desertification is spreading
in many regions and a large amount of good agricultural land is
simply being paved over each year. We have a serious problem
here.
Climate change is going to make the situation immeasurably worse.
The modest warming that we have experienced so far may not be
the main cause of the floods, droughts and violent storms that have
hurt this year’s crops but the rise in temperature will continue
because we cannot find the political will to curb greenhouse-gas
emissions.
The rule of thumb is that we lose about 10 percent of world food
production for every rise of 1 degree Celsius in average global
temperatures. So the shortages will grow and the price of food will
rise inexorably in the future. The riots will return again and again.
In some places, the rioting will turn into revolution. In others, the
rioters will become refugees and push up against the borders of
countries that don’t want to let them in. Or maybe we can get the
warming under control before it does too much damage. Hold your
breath, squeeze your eyes tight shut, and wish for a miracle.
*Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose
articles are published in 45 countries. His latest book, “Climate
Wars,” is distributed in most of the world by Oneworld.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
*Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose
articles are published in 45 countries. His latest book, “Climate
Wars,” is distributed in most of the world by Oneworld.
.
Courtesy
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