Food Insecurity Looms in Parched Horn of Africa

Food Insecurity Looms in Parched Horn of Africa

25April, 2011 | By Gayathri Vaidyanathan, New York Times
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ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia -- A drought in the Horn of Africa,
triggered by the same La Niña episode that caused massive flooding
in Australia last year, is plunging millions of pastoralists closer to
food insecurity.

Parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and

eastern Uganda are most

affected. The U.

N. World Food Programme (WFP)

estimates that

8.4 million people are in

need of food aid in the region, according

spokesman David Orr. Thousands of

livestock have already died in

Kenya and

Ethiopia from animal diseases associated

with the

drought. The severity this year

will depend on the rainy season between March and May.

"It is too early to say yet, although the general view is [the rains]
look like being quite poor in certain parts of Somalia and Ethiopia,"
said Orr. "Combined with conflict and rising food prices in Somalia,
this could be particularly serious in that country."

The WFP is continuing its normal operations of providing a food
basket of cereals to the regions but is underfunded by 56 percent
for the April to September period, Orr said.

In a country such as Ethiopia -- whose economy is expected to
grow at 9 percent this year according to the Economist Intelligence
Unit and lags just behind China and India at 8.1 percent per year in
the period between 2011 and 2015, according to the IMF -- there
are concerns the La Niña episode could hamper growth in the short
term.

Droughts are not new to the region. A massive one between 2008
and 2009 left 23 million people hungry and millions of livestock
dead. And before that, droughts have taught pastoralists to become
nomads, moving with their hardy animals in search of better grazing
land.

But recent droughts are affecting a population that is increasingly
vulnerable to climate threats. Reduction in livestock holdings due to
more frequent droughts, coupled with a population that is growing at
2.5 percent per year over the past 40 years, has decreased the
amount of protein and milk available to the average family. There is
greater competition for land from agriculture and urbanization. And
global climate change studies have suggested the region will become
drier in the future.

Meanwhile, the local governments are doing little to protect
pastoralist livelihoods in the long term.

"The Horn of Africa has lived with drought for the past 100 years
and has to live with it for the next however many years," said a
senior agriculture expert with an international agency who spoke on
the condition of anonymity to maintain his relationship with the
Ethiopian government. "Drought isn't like a tsunami or an
earthquake; it is just part of life."

In pastoralist areas where cow and camel herders prize their animals
above other forms of wealth, livestock deaths can doom livelihoods.
The Ethiopian government is aware of the threat to pastoralists but
is doing little other than deploying food aid to the affected regions,
said the expert. The drought has not been well publicized in the
nation.

A drought for the record books

Unlike more instantaneous natural disasters such as earthquakes,
drought progresses slowly like a drumbeat. There is an apex, usually
around the ninth month when the numbers of cattle dying rises
drastically. The numbers depend on how poor the rainfall is, and
meteorologists have so far predicted below-average rainfall for
2011 in eastern parts of the Horn.

Predictions of the current drought depend on ocean temperatures.
A La Niña episode, caused by cooling ocean surface temperatures,
began in the central Pacific Ocean in July 2010. Temperatures
lowered by 1.5 to 1.6 degrees Celsius, changing ocean and
atmospheric circulation patterns.

In historical terms, this episode has been among the strongest in a
century, according to the World Meteorological Agency. The
system unleashed massive flooding in Australia and Southeast Asia.
In East Africa, it caused a dry spell between October and
December 2010. It was the driest short rain season in 30 years.

However, one failed season does not translate to a major threat.
The problem arises if there is a second consecutive season of poor
rains during the long rain season of March to May. The season is
critical for the Horn, providing from 40 to 80 percent of the annual
rainfall.

Other factors include the price of food in local markets, the price of
animal feed and water table decrease over subsequent droughts.
For a pastoralist, livestock is life and selling or killing a precious
asset will be the last recourse.

Current predictions from the Famine Early Warning Systems
Network (FEWS NET East Africa) are that rains will be below
normal in the eastern parts of the Horn. This may not be enough to
replenish pastures and avoid livestock deaths.

Among the hardest hit will be the pastoralists of southern Ethiopia.
They move around with cattle, camel and goats in search of grazing
lands.

The majority of Ethiopia's livestock exports come from the southern
Extensive Livestock/Pastoral Production Zone. This includes
southern Somalia, Oromia and the Southern Nations, Nationalities,
and People's (SNNP) region, both in Ethiopia. Livestock is a major
part of agriculture and contributed 48 billion birr (about $2.9 billion)
to the national economy between 2008 and 2009, according to a
recent analysis by the IGAD Livestock Policy Initiative.

"So it is that belt across the South, and we are going to have a large,
large amount of livestock deaths this year," the agricultural expert
said. "Half a million or worse."

Millions need food aid, milk

Half a million livestock deaths could wipe millions of dollars off
Ethiopia's gross domestic product given the contribution of livestock
to the economy.

The World Food Programme did not corroborate this number,
saying that livestock deaths would depend on how poor the rains
are between March and May, which FEWS NET currently predicts
will be 70 percent below normal for the region. The Ethiopian
government's Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) from
April states that about 1 million cattle ought to be "de-stocked," a
term referring to the culling of cattle before they become too weak
to be used as a protein source.

The Ethiopian government also estimates in its HRD that 2 million
people in the drought-affected regions require food aid. In total, 3
million people depend on food handouts in the nation.

In addition to the immediate food requirements, droughts tend to
have a long-term effect on pastoralists who drink large quantities of
milk as food. Following rainfall in late 2009, the cows and camels
gave birth recently in late 2010. These calves are now being
slaughtered to protect the mothers during the drought. If this drought
peaks in August and short rains fall in November, the cows will
breed in January. The next calving season will be November 2012,
making that the time when milk becomes available for pastoralist
families.

"The next milk they give to the kids, I'm serious about this, will be
November 2012," the expert said.

The Disaster Risk Management Agriculture Task Force in Ethiopia
has recommended de-stocking the cattle before the drought
worsens to provide cash for pastoralists. The money could be used
for food and to purchase feed for important breeding lines of cattle.
Culling 40,000 drought-weakened cattle would cost about $2
million, the HRD says.

But the Ethiopian government has not embarked on such activities
on a large scale because of high costs, according to the agricultural
expert. This is despite the integral contribution of livestock and
pastoralism to agriculture, which is the focus of the much-touted
"Five Year National Growth and Transformation Plan." The
government hopes to double agricultural productivity and achieve
14.9 percent growth on average by 2015.

"We are talking about the entire southern part of Ethiopia and it's
not anywhere on anybody's radar really," he said, then asked
rhetorically: "Will the government say something about it? Do
something about it?"

Courtesy