Danger of global conflict
06 February, 2012 | Piet Coetzer (Leadership Magazine)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Possibility of another Gulf war on the rise
Africa, will be left untouched. It is at the same time also
fundamentally driven by economic considerations and .by forging a
global strategic realignment, changing the dictates of what can be
regarded as in the best national interest.
South Africa, like many other countries around the globe, is unlikely
to escape some fallout from the drama building up between Iran
and America and its allies. This is dictated, among other things, by
the fact that the country receives 25% of its crude oil from Iran.
Reports surfaced recently that South Africa is assessing a worst-
case scenario in which its crude imports from Iran are cut by
conflict or halted by the American-driven sanctions against that
country.
South Africa is far from being the only country that will be affected
by either the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf or the unilateral
enforcement of sanctions by the United States. While it could have
dire consequences for the already economically depressed
economies of southern Europe, only Turkey and Sri Lanka rely
more on Iranian crude than South Africa.
In December last year, with apparent total disregard for the
consequences it implies for a struggling global economy, the US
congress imposed a mandatory sanctions package on the world
starting in June this year. The US will have to sanction any third-
country banks and companies dealing with Iran’s Central Bank -- a
move aimed at crippling Iran’ oil sales and its economy.
In the process America is sucking the rest of the globe into it’s (at
this stage) economic war against Iran. For South Africa the direct
implications might go well beyond the fact that its refineries will not
be able to switch overnight to crude from elsewhere – if it can be
found overnight – for technical reasons. There will also be cost
implications in adapting the refineries.
South Africa and Iran, however also have other significant
economic and investment links. South African-based telecoms
company MTN, Africa’s biggest company in this industry, for
instance has 32-million Iranian subscribers accounting for 10% of
its revenue. Petrochemicals giant Sasol is also reportedly involved
in talks to expand its interests in Iran while it consumes some
Iranian crude at its Natref refinery.
Why is Iran the target?
With even the US intelligence community in its most recent
National Intelligence Estimate stating that Iran is not developing
a nuclear weapon, very few serious commentators and observers
any longer give credence to the pretext that Iran is being targeted
because of being a nuclear threat.
Many commentators however make out a case that the real aim of
the US is regime change in what has become the dominant state in
the region, with the Washington Post recently quoting an
anonymous US-official as saying that “the goal of the US and other
sanctions against Iran is regime collapse.”
The US bid to easily conquer Afghanistan and Iraq and establish
client regimes did not go quite according to plan and as a recent
article on the Canadian-based website, Global Research put it: “...
U.S. setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan that have weakened the US
superpower dominance of Southwest Asia relative to Iran. The
more the US. loses its grip on the region, the more desperate
imperialism may become to risk all in a mad adventure to recoup its
past position.”
At the same time the extent to which the once mighty petro-dollar
presently under threat, drives the US strategy around Iran should
also not be underestimated.
Like Saddam Hussein before them, Iran’s leadership are attempting
– and largely succeeding – to trade their oil without going through
the normal channels. They are attempting to bypass the US and
Europe by negotiating deals with China, India and Russia that will
not require the trade of oil in dollars, but rather in yuan, rupees and
gold.
In and article for Information Clearing House Pepe Escobar makes
a strong case that “...perhaps one key reason the crisis in the
Persian Gulf is mounting, involves this move to torpedo the petro-
dollar as the all-purpose currency of exchange.”
Citing the recent pronouncement by US-president Obama that
Washington’s focus of attention is to move to the Pacific, and thus
China (with Iran happening to be right in the middle) he also writes
that “... this larger-than-life psychodrama we call Iran may turn out
to be as much about China and the US dollar as it is about the
politics of the Persian Gulf or Iran’s nonexistent bomb.”
New global divides
As the present confrontation is building up to a crescendo, it is
becoming increasingly clear that the reaction of some powerful
global players is informed by what they regard as their own national
interest.
It turns out that America will not find it easy to have it all its own
way. About 75% of Iran’s oil exports go to resource-hungry
countries in the East and South Asia, such as China, Japan, India
and South Korea, all of whom have been unwilling to join the
sanctions band-wagon.
Russia, also in the broader context including Syria, has not only
given notice that it will veto any UN Security Council move
towards intervention in Syria, but also warned that any military
intervention in its neighbour Iran would be regarded as a threat to
its own security. It also warned that a military assault on the Iranian
regime could cause a chain reaction that would destabilise the entire
world.
In America’s own backyard, many Latin American countries are
increasingly forging links with Iran. Venezuela has joint projects to
the tune of $4 billion with Iran ranging from banks to power plants.
Brazil, one of South Africa’s partners in the BRICS club (Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa) is completely opposed to
the sanctions strategy, which is also likely to bring strain to bear
on US/Japan relations, with Japan sourcing 10% of its oil needs
from Iran.
As new dividing lines are developing in the world of global
competition for strategic and economic dominance, and under the
pressure of individual countries’ own national interests, it is
increasingly looking unlikely that economic pressure will deliver for
the US the results it desires.
This makes the situation all the more dangerous. As Escobar
reports: “... a senior EU official told National Iranian American
Council president Trita Prasi, and as EU diplomats have assured
me in no uncertain terms, they fear this (sanctions) might prove to
be the last step short of outright war.”
If it does come to conflict, as seems increasingly probable, the
situation could become very uncomfortable and fraught with risks
for a country like South Africa. In view of its own national
interests, and the recent history in Libya, it would be a surprise if
one were to find South Africa supportive of the cause of the US
and its European allies.
. Courtesy
06 February, 2012 | Piet Coetzer (Leadership Magazine)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Possibility of another Gulf war on the rise
- With the amassing of naval
firepower, armaments and troops
– American troops expected to
reach the 100 000-mark by
March – in the Persian Gulf
region, the spectre of what is
called a fourth Gulf war, is
starting to take on an air of
Africa, will be left untouched. It is at the same time also
fundamentally driven by economic considerations and .by forging a
global strategic realignment, changing the dictates of what can be
regarded as in the best national interest.
South Africa, like many other countries around the globe, is unlikely
to escape some fallout from the drama building up between Iran
and America and its allies. This is dictated, among other things, by
the fact that the country receives 25% of its crude oil from Iran.
Reports surfaced recently that South Africa is assessing a worst-
case scenario in which its crude imports from Iran are cut by
conflict or halted by the American-driven sanctions against that
country.
South Africa is far from being the only country that will be affected
by either the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf or the unilateral
enforcement of sanctions by the United States. While it could have
dire consequences for the already economically depressed
economies of southern Europe, only Turkey and Sri Lanka rely
more on Iranian crude than South Africa.
In December last year, with apparent total disregard for the
consequences it implies for a struggling global economy, the US
congress imposed a mandatory sanctions package on the world
starting in June this year. The US will have to sanction any third-
country banks and companies dealing with Iran’s Central Bank -- a
move aimed at crippling Iran’ oil sales and its economy.
In the process America is sucking the rest of the globe into it’s (at
this stage) economic war against Iran. For South Africa the direct
implications might go well beyond the fact that its refineries will not
be able to switch overnight to crude from elsewhere – if it can be
found overnight – for technical reasons. There will also be cost
implications in adapting the refineries.
South Africa and Iran, however also have other significant
economic and investment links. South African-based telecoms
company MTN, Africa’s biggest company in this industry, for
instance has 32-million Iranian subscribers accounting for 10% of
its revenue. Petrochemicals giant Sasol is also reportedly involved
in talks to expand its interests in Iran while it consumes some
Iranian crude at its Natref refinery.
Why is Iran the target?
With even the US intelligence community in its most recent
National Intelligence Estimate stating that Iran is not developing
a nuclear weapon, very few serious commentators and observers
any longer give credence to the pretext that Iran is being targeted
because of being a nuclear threat.
Many commentators however make out a case that the real aim of
the US is regime change in what has become the dominant state in
the region, with the Washington Post recently quoting an
anonymous US-official as saying that “the goal of the US and other
sanctions against Iran is regime collapse.”
The US bid to easily conquer Afghanistan and Iraq and establish
client regimes did not go quite according to plan and as a recent
article on the Canadian-based website, Global Research put it: “...
U.S. setbacks in Iraq and Afghanistan that have weakened the US
superpower dominance of Southwest Asia relative to Iran. The
more the US. loses its grip on the region, the more desperate
imperialism may become to risk all in a mad adventure to recoup its
past position.”
At the same time the extent to which the once mighty petro-dollar
presently under threat, drives the US strategy around Iran should
also not be underestimated.
Like Saddam Hussein before them, Iran’s leadership are attempting
– and largely succeeding – to trade their oil without going through
the normal channels. They are attempting to bypass the US and
Europe by negotiating deals with China, India and Russia that will
not require the trade of oil in dollars, but rather in yuan, rupees and
gold.
In and article for Information Clearing House Pepe Escobar makes
a strong case that “...perhaps one key reason the crisis in the
Persian Gulf is mounting, involves this move to torpedo the petro-
dollar as the all-purpose currency of exchange.”
Citing the recent pronouncement by US-president Obama that
Washington’s focus of attention is to move to the Pacific, and thus
China (with Iran happening to be right in the middle) he also writes
that “... this larger-than-life psychodrama we call Iran may turn out
to be as much about China and the US dollar as it is about the
politics of the Persian Gulf or Iran’s nonexistent bomb.”
New global divides
As the present confrontation is building up to a crescendo, it is
becoming increasingly clear that the reaction of some powerful
global players is informed by what they regard as their own national
interest.
It turns out that America will not find it easy to have it all its own
way. About 75% of Iran’s oil exports go to resource-hungry
countries in the East and South Asia, such as China, Japan, India
and South Korea, all of whom have been unwilling to join the
sanctions band-wagon.
Russia, also in the broader context including Syria, has not only
given notice that it will veto any UN Security Council move
towards intervention in Syria, but also warned that any military
intervention in its neighbour Iran would be regarded as a threat to
its own security. It also warned that a military assault on the Iranian
regime could cause a chain reaction that would destabilise the entire
world.
In America’s own backyard, many Latin American countries are
increasingly forging links with Iran. Venezuela has joint projects to
the tune of $4 billion with Iran ranging from banks to power plants.
Brazil, one of South Africa’s partners in the BRICS club (Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South Africa) is completely opposed to
the sanctions strategy, which is also likely to bring strain to bear
on US/Japan relations, with Japan sourcing 10% of its oil needs
from Iran.
As new dividing lines are developing in the world of global
competition for strategic and economic dominance, and under the
pressure of individual countries’ own national interests, it is
increasingly looking unlikely that economic pressure will deliver for
the US the results it desires.
This makes the situation all the more dangerous. As Escobar
reports: “... a senior EU official told National Iranian American
Council president Trita Prasi, and as EU diplomats have assured
me in no uncertain terms, they fear this (sanctions) might prove to
be the last step short of outright war.”
If it does come to conflict, as seems increasingly probable, the
situation could become very uncomfortable and fraught with risks
for a country like South Africa. In view of its own national
interests, and the recent history in Libya, it would be a surprise if
one were to find South Africa supportive of the cause of the US
and its European allies.
. Courtesy
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