Eritrean Strongman Isaias Afwerki: Still The Regional
Spoiler
14 March, 2011 | Awate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In February 2011, Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi accused
Eritrea of sending militants from the port of Asseb to Ethiopia and told
his parliament that the militants were captured by Ethiopian authorities
in Bati, a town in the Afar region of Ethiopia.
On February 17, 2011, Djibouti’s defense minister, Ejre Kifleh
Ahmed, accused Eritrea of sending militants carrying 200 explosives
to his country and that the armed men were captured in Obock, near
the Eritrean border.
On the same day, February 17, 2011, the Sudanese president Omar
AlBashir visited Asmara for an emergency meeting with Isaias
Afwerki and stayed for a few hours and returned home. The subject
of the discussion, though not made public, deals with Sudanese rebels
in Eastern Sudan and Darfur who rebel against Khartoum and are
under the influence of Isaias Afwerki.
An expert at waging proxy wars, Isaias Afwerki had been allied to the
now-deposed Hosni Mubarek on three issues: containing Ethiopia’s
influence in Somalia; containing Ethiopia’s ambitions on the River Nile;
and containing South Sudan’s autonomy.
With respect to Somalia, Isaias Afwerki had and still has one goal: to
make any peace treaty hosted or supported by Ethiopia to be
unworkable. A Somali government allied to Ethiopia is not seen as in
the strategic interest of Egypt, and therefore, Eritrea. Towards that
end, Isaias Afwerki has demonstrated, even under the duress of UN
sanctions, that he would pull no punches to train, arm or fund anyone
who can disrupt the Djibouti Agreement.
With respect to Sudan, Mubarek and Isaias were the only two
leaders who pushed hard to delay the Southern Sudan referendum
that was carried out last January. But when the entire world supported
it and it appeared inevitable, Mubarek and Isaias decided to play
along and had a plan—delay its implementation which is planned for
the coming summer, by creating as many roadblocks and thorns as
possible.
Meanwhile, in Western Sudan, Moammer Gaddaffi has been funding
Isaias Afwerki and Chad’s Idris Deby (both are supporting Gaddafi
against the Libyan rebels) to train and arm the Darfurians. Even now,
a large contingent of Darfurians and South Sudanese rebels opposed
to the government of Southern Sudan—forces loyal to General
George Athor—are being trained in Western Eritrea by Brigadier
General Tekle Manjus. Also heavily involved in this adventure was
Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief who served as
Mubarak’s vice president for about week.
Perhaps owing to Ethiopia’s long solidarity with them—going back to
the Haile Selasse and Mengistu eras—the new Southern Sudanese
government has been partnering with Ethiopian nationals and the
Ethiopian government, a development that has irked Isaias Afwerki
who had also supported the South People’s Liberation Movement
(SPLM) for decades. For losing that opportunity, Isaias will not
waver to ignite crisis for Southern Sudan.
Meanwhile, earlier this year, Brigadier General Tekle Manjus, in a
break with established policy, openly encouraged the Eastern Sudan
Front to demand the right to self-determination. This is a surprising
development considering that the Isaias regime vested a great deal of
time and resource to broker a peace deal between Sudan’s Eastern
Front and the Khartoum government.
Courtesy
Spoiler
14 March, 2011 | Awate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- The recent North African
revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt
and Libya may have
temporarily put a pause on
Isaias Afwerki’s
preternaturally spoiler role in
the region, but the strongman
has not entirely curtailed his
In February 2011, Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi accused
Eritrea of sending militants from the port of Asseb to Ethiopia and told
his parliament that the militants were captured by Ethiopian authorities
in Bati, a town in the Afar region of Ethiopia.
On February 17, 2011, Djibouti’s defense minister, Ejre Kifleh
Ahmed, accused Eritrea of sending militants carrying 200 explosives
to his country and that the armed men were captured in Obock, near
the Eritrean border.
On the same day, February 17, 2011, the Sudanese president Omar
AlBashir visited Asmara for an emergency meeting with Isaias
Afwerki and stayed for a few hours and returned home. The subject
of the discussion, though not made public, deals with Sudanese rebels
in Eastern Sudan and Darfur who rebel against Khartoum and are
under the influence of Isaias Afwerki.
An expert at waging proxy wars, Isaias Afwerki had been allied to the
now-deposed Hosni Mubarek on three issues: containing Ethiopia’s
influence in Somalia; containing Ethiopia’s ambitions on the River Nile;
and containing South Sudan’s autonomy.
With respect to Somalia, Isaias Afwerki had and still has one goal: to
make any peace treaty hosted or supported by Ethiopia to be
unworkable. A Somali government allied to Ethiopia is not seen as in
the strategic interest of Egypt, and therefore, Eritrea. Towards that
end, Isaias Afwerki has demonstrated, even under the duress of UN
sanctions, that he would pull no punches to train, arm or fund anyone
who can disrupt the Djibouti Agreement.
With respect to Sudan, Mubarek and Isaias were the only two
leaders who pushed hard to delay the Southern Sudan referendum
that was carried out last January. But when the entire world supported
it and it appeared inevitable, Mubarek and Isaias decided to play
along and had a plan—delay its implementation which is planned for
the coming summer, by creating as many roadblocks and thorns as
possible.
Meanwhile, in Western Sudan, Moammer Gaddaffi has been funding
Isaias Afwerki and Chad’s Idris Deby (both are supporting Gaddafi
against the Libyan rebels) to train and arm the Darfurians. Even now,
a large contingent of Darfurians and South Sudanese rebels opposed
to the government of Southern Sudan—forces loyal to General
George Athor—are being trained in Western Eritrea by Brigadier
General Tekle Manjus. Also heavily involved in this adventure was
Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief who served as
Mubarak’s vice president for about week.
Perhaps owing to Ethiopia’s long solidarity with them—going back to
the Haile Selasse and Mengistu eras—the new Southern Sudanese
government has been partnering with Ethiopian nationals and the
Ethiopian government, a development that has irked Isaias Afwerki
who had also supported the South People’s Liberation Movement
(SPLM) for decades. For losing that opportunity, Isaias will not
waver to ignite crisis for Southern Sudan.
Meanwhile, earlier this year, Brigadier General Tekle Manjus, in a
break with established policy, openly encouraged the Eastern Sudan
Front to demand the right to self-determination. This is a surprising
development considering that the Isaias regime vested a great deal of
time and resource to broker a peace deal between Sudan’s Eastern
Front and the Khartoum government.
Courtesy
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