The Existential Threat to the Nation
26 July, 2009 | by Mohammed Birhan Hagos
role of that conflict in precipitating the crisis of governance in Eritrea.
The Impact of the Conflict with Ethiopia
The EPLF ideology of Eritreanism came to blows with Sudan, Yemen and
Djibouti before it precipitated the conflict with Ethiopia but it is the
conflict with Ethiopia that has had the most profound military, economic,
diplomatic and social impact on the Issayas regime. It is therefore helpful
to asses how and why this conflict has had such an impact.
The Military impact of the conflict
The conflict with Ethiopia ended with a humiliating military defeat for the
Issayas regime. The myth of military invincibility on which the ideology
was based was thus profoundly shaken. Issayas's claim to over lordship
in the horn was based on such myth and his capacity to militarily
intimidate his neighbors. That was lost for good. The regime could either
abandon its ideology or recover its standing by inflicting a humiliating
defeat on the Ethiopians. It chose to retain its ideology by destroying the
Woyane regime. Initially this was supposed to be achieved through a
quick reorganization and re-arming. To do that Issayas cleaned the area
for such adventure by imprisoning and removing all those who were
uneasy about the choice of such adventure. He carried out massive
propaganda within the army to convince them that the honor of the army
and the chosen people and the respect they deserve could only be
retrieved by destroying the Woyane regime. Unfortunately for the regime,
this choice turned out to be a perfect cage. The Ethiopians with better
financial and human resources were able to maintain an army which could
inflict another humiliating defeat. The Issayas regime had to put one in ten
Eritrean in the trenches to maintain the army. The Ethiopians merely
needed to put 4 in one thousand Ethiopian to field a similarly sized army.
Issayas had to use well over 10% of GDP in maintaining such an army.
The Ethiopians could do so with just 1% of GDP. As time went by,
demography and the economy made it impossible for Issayas to challenge
the Woyanes in open battles. An armed truce became inevitable. Such an
armed truce would exhaust Eritrea's human and financial resources
without having significant impact on the Ethiopians. Issayas's ideology
would not allow him to abandon his objective of destroying the Woyanes,
to re-assert his dominance and, so he chose to weaken the Woyanes first
by arming various Ethiopian opposition groups, the extremists in Somalia,
threatening all neighbors who were suspected of siding with Ethiopia, and
later attacking them directly.
Such an approach has not worked because the Ethiopians were able to
absorb the indirect attacks and because they were able to use Eritrea's
endeavor in this regard to turn the diplomatic table on it. The end result is
thus a cage in which the Issayas regime has become trapped militarily, a
cage that weakens the regime militarily every passing day while the
relative military positions of the Woyanes improves everyday. There are
only two ways out of the cage. Either the regime abandons its ideology
and its objective of destroying the Woyanes, or it implodes like the USSR
did in an unequal military standoff with Ethiopia. There is no doubt that
the choice of Issayas regime is the latter.
The Economic impact of the conflict
Throughout the federal experience and during the war of independence
the Eritrean economy was linked with that of Ethiopia. Indeed it was part
of the Ethiopian economy for more than three decades. The Eritrean
economy was shattered by the war which meant that not only was it
linked with the Ethiopian economy but that it was also incapable of doing
well if such links were suddenly severed. That is exactly what the Issayas
regime succeeded in doing when it invaded Ethiopia. The economic
impact has been devastating in a number of ways. The latest figures
show that Djibouti currently earns between 700-900 million dollars as a
result of its port service to Ethiopia. This is money that Eritrea would
have earned had the Issayas regime not provoked the war to turn Ethiopia
into an economic hinterland of Eritrea. That is 200 dollars per capita
earnings forgone. It is also money that is likely to continue to grow.
Eritrea's ports are now idle and the country has lost more than its total
GDP in earnings from port services alone because of the conflict. There
is no way of quantifying what the loss in earnings is as a result of the
elimination of trade ties between the two countries but it is likely to be
substantial. While the Issayas regime initiated the national service before
the conflict with Ethiopia for ideological reasons, and while therefore
Eritrea is likely to have had an oversized army even without the conflict
with Ethiopia it is nevertheless true that the armed truce with Ethiopia has
compelled the Issayas regime to permanently keep 10% of the population
in the army. This has meant that the bulk of the country's meager
resources are devoted to wasteful military expenditure. Perhaps more
importantly the productive force of Eritrea has become unemployed in the
trenches.
The economic loss is likely to be much higher than the loss caused by the
loss of port services. In other words, the conflict with Ethiopia has
resulted in an economic loss of more than twice of the per-capita income
of the nation and is continuing to grow by the day.
The Diplomatic impact of the conflict
Eritrea was given the diplomatic upper hand when the boundary
commission gave Badme to Eritrea and Ethiopia refused to implement the
decision. This diplomatic upper hand has been completely lost and Eritrea
is now totally isolated. The best proof of that isolation is the fact that the
African Union in its recent summit in Libya chaired by Eritrea's remaining
friend Gadafi called for imposing sanctions on Eritrea, the first time that
the organization has done so to a member state in its history. Some people
suggest that this is so because of the diplomatic ineptitude of the Issayas
regime and skills and clout of the Ethiopians. It would be wrong to deny
that these factors have contributed to the complete diplomatic reversal.
But it would also be wrong to conclude that they are he main reasons for
the reversal. The key reason in my view is the ideology. It is the ideology
which forced the Issayas regime to put its objective of destroying the
Woyane regime above every thing else. It is its ideology which forced it to
look down on all Black African states and publicly abuse many of their
leaders. It is its ideology with militarism as one of its key characteristics
that forced the regime to intimidate any nation that it suspected of
sympathizing with Ethiopia including its recent invasion of Djibouti. It is
the ideology which forced it to support terrorists to destabilize the
Woyanes. It is the ideology which precipitated the confrontation with the
U.S, U.N and the international community as a whole. It is true that the
Woyanes used the opportunity given to them by the Issayas regime well.
It is also true that the Issayas regime has been unusually inept in its
diplomatic activities. But ultimately it is the ideology which created the
ground for Eritrea's total diplomatic isolation. As the threat of sanction
indicates the diplomatic isolation is getting worse by the way making
Eritrea's prospect of getting out of the quagmire it finds itself in very dim
indeed.
The Political melt-down of the regime
The ideology of the regime, which as we indicated is a convoluted form
of Eritrean highland chauvinism imbued with the concepts of the chosen
people, militarism and Spartan Stoicism, is facing a melt-down. The
population in the Muslim lowlands which was never enthusiastic about the
regime has become fully alienated from the regime. The Eritrea of the
regime including the so-called constitution does not cater for their
interests and does not respect their identity. Their second class citizenship
has been confirmed by all the policies and practices of the rgime. The
regime has overtime become more brazen in its policy of iscrimination.
The fact that up to half a million refugees from the owlands are vegetating
in refugee camps next door in Sudan at a time hen their land is being
expropriated by the "investors" from the ighlands and government
companies and used to settle desperate farmers from the highlands is
merely the most explosive manifestation of the policy of discrimination.
As a result separatist tendencies are taking root among the Kunama and
Afar. Islamicist political discourse, some of which is extremist, is taking
the upper hand in the lowlands. The political links between the highlands
and lowlands, Muslims and Christians are being broken on a daily basis
and the repression and discrimination is spawning extremism of various
types. This is bound to continue so long as the regime continues and will
test the nation's very existence to the limit.
The relation between the regime and what it considers as its core
constituency is also being undermined. The Jeberti were among the first
to be alienated along with their co-religionists in the lowlands and their
opposition is taking a distinctly Islamist coloring. Among the Christian
highlanders while there is no visible rejection of the regime's ideology and
while therefore the regime still has some unenthusiastic support, the
unconditional and enthusiastic support is gone. The youth have rejected
their fate as cannon fodder in the regime's militarist agenda and are leaving
the country in their thousands. As the regime's support weakens it is
having to depend on a more and more narrow circle for its survival and
has latched onto regionalism to do so. As a result there is wide spread
alienation in the regions of Akeleguzay and Serae and some areas in
Hamasien. Even ties within the highlands are thus fraying further
endangering the viability of the nation.
The Economic melt-down of the nation
As I indicated earlier the conflict with Ethiopia and the subsequent
diplomatic alienation has done untold damage to the economy of Eritrea.
The regime has added fuel to the fire not only by persisting in its
destructive ideology and objectives vis-à-vis the rest of the world but also
through its domestic policy. As the regime's voracious appetite for any
economic surplus increased due to the economic problems caused by the
conflict, its inherent tendency to monopolize all sources of profit reached
unprecedented levels and the private sector has to all intents and purposes
been eliminated. The hen that lays the golden eggs is dead in Eritrea.
The productive labor power has been immobilized because of the endless
national service, and the regime's policy of using Eritrea's manpower for
military purpose only. The Issayas regime has taken this policy which has
its roots in Italian colonial policy to its logical absurdity and now the only
university in the country has been shut down and replaced with military
barracks masquerading as colleges. The peasant farmers have lost the
labor and their incentive to produce more. The regime is appropriating the
most productive land and confiscating any surplus produced by the
farmers. The economy of the nation is in a process of accelerated
meltdown without any change in sight.
The Social melt-down of the nation
As much of the youth is in the trenches, families are breaking down
prostitution and extra marital sex is on the increase particularly in the
highlands. The youth particularly men are leaving the country turning
Eritrea into a nation of elders and children. The social decay is manifesting
itself in extreme forms of hedonism particularly among senior officials of
the regime. They consume untold amount of expensive alcohol, maintain
dozens of mistresses from among the hapless young girls and engage in
all sorts of criminal business activities including human trafficking to
cover the cost of their hedonism. The nation as a whole particularly the
youth appear to have lost hope in the nation. As a result the nation which
is supposed to have given birth to countless fearless heroes is now in the
grip of total fear and terror. No one appears to have the courage to
oppose and stop the decay. The only way out of this social and political
paralysis appears to be running away from it all, abandoning the nation for
greener pasture.
The Issayas regime and its ideology are thus the enemies that pose the
existential threat to the nation. They and their ideology have brought about
an economic, political and social melt-down of the nation and there is no
prospect of reversing that. They have engineered a total diplomatic
isolation of the nation and a military cage from which they are unable to
extricate themselves and their nation. The longer this goes on the more
likely that Eritrea will implode and cease to exist. That is the challenge we
all face. I hope to deal with a possible way out in my next posting.
May there be a landing in Eritrea soon!
Courtesy
Author's Previous Article
- EPLF's "Eritreanism" in the post independence era
26 July, 2009 | by Mohammed Birhan Hagos
- In my previous postings I have tried to
explain the genesis and content of the EPLF's
ideology of Eritreanism, and how it
manifested itself in the post-independence era.
Among other things I have tried to explain the
conflict with Ethiopia on the basis of that
ideology. I will now try to show how that
ideology of convoluted highland Christian
chauvinism, that ideology of the chosen
people, militarism and stoicism has posed an
existential threat to the Nation. The conflict
with Ethiopia was both a manifestation of the
ideology and an essential event in its
role of that conflict in precipitating the crisis of governance in Eritrea.
The Impact of the Conflict with Ethiopia
The EPLF ideology of Eritreanism came to blows with Sudan, Yemen and
Djibouti before it precipitated the conflict with Ethiopia but it is the
conflict with Ethiopia that has had the most profound military, economic,
diplomatic and social impact on the Issayas regime. It is therefore helpful
to asses how and why this conflict has had such an impact.
The Military impact of the conflict
The conflict with Ethiopia ended with a humiliating military defeat for the
Issayas regime. The myth of military invincibility on which the ideology
was based was thus profoundly shaken. Issayas's claim to over lordship
in the horn was based on such myth and his capacity to militarily
intimidate his neighbors. That was lost for good. The regime could either
abandon its ideology or recover its standing by inflicting a humiliating
defeat on the Ethiopians. It chose to retain its ideology by destroying the
Woyane regime. Initially this was supposed to be achieved through a
quick reorganization and re-arming. To do that Issayas cleaned the area
for such adventure by imprisoning and removing all those who were
uneasy about the choice of such adventure. He carried out massive
propaganda within the army to convince them that the honor of the army
and the chosen people and the respect they deserve could only be
retrieved by destroying the Woyane regime. Unfortunately for the regime,
this choice turned out to be a perfect cage. The Ethiopians with better
financial and human resources were able to maintain an army which could
inflict another humiliating defeat. The Issayas regime had to put one in ten
Eritrean in the trenches to maintain the army. The Ethiopians merely
needed to put 4 in one thousand Ethiopian to field a similarly sized army.
Issayas had to use well over 10% of GDP in maintaining such an army.
The Ethiopians could do so with just 1% of GDP. As time went by,
demography and the economy made it impossible for Issayas to challenge
the Woyanes in open battles. An armed truce became inevitable. Such an
armed truce would exhaust Eritrea's human and financial resources
without having significant impact on the Ethiopians. Issayas's ideology
would not allow him to abandon his objective of destroying the Woyanes,
to re-assert his dominance and, so he chose to weaken the Woyanes first
by arming various Ethiopian opposition groups, the extremists in Somalia,
threatening all neighbors who were suspected of siding with Ethiopia, and
later attacking them directly.
Such an approach has not worked because the Ethiopians were able to
absorb the indirect attacks and because they were able to use Eritrea's
endeavor in this regard to turn the diplomatic table on it. The end result is
thus a cage in which the Issayas regime has become trapped militarily, a
cage that weakens the regime militarily every passing day while the
relative military positions of the Woyanes improves everyday. There are
only two ways out of the cage. Either the regime abandons its ideology
and its objective of destroying the Woyanes, or it implodes like the USSR
did in an unequal military standoff with Ethiopia. There is no doubt that
the choice of Issayas regime is the latter.
The Economic impact of the conflict
Throughout the federal experience and during the war of independence
the Eritrean economy was linked with that of Ethiopia. Indeed it was part
of the Ethiopian economy for more than three decades. The Eritrean
economy was shattered by the war which meant that not only was it
linked with the Ethiopian economy but that it was also incapable of doing
well if such links were suddenly severed. That is exactly what the Issayas
regime succeeded in doing when it invaded Ethiopia. The economic
impact has been devastating in a number of ways. The latest figures
show that Djibouti currently earns between 700-900 million dollars as a
result of its port service to Ethiopia. This is money that Eritrea would
have earned had the Issayas regime not provoked the war to turn Ethiopia
into an economic hinterland of Eritrea. That is 200 dollars per capita
earnings forgone. It is also money that is likely to continue to grow.
Eritrea's ports are now idle and the country has lost more than its total
GDP in earnings from port services alone because of the conflict. There
is no way of quantifying what the loss in earnings is as a result of the
elimination of trade ties between the two countries but it is likely to be
substantial. While the Issayas regime initiated the national service before
the conflict with Ethiopia for ideological reasons, and while therefore
Eritrea is likely to have had an oversized army even without the conflict
with Ethiopia it is nevertheless true that the armed truce with Ethiopia has
compelled the Issayas regime to permanently keep 10% of the population
in the army. This has meant that the bulk of the country's meager
resources are devoted to wasteful military expenditure. Perhaps more
importantly the productive force of Eritrea has become unemployed in the
trenches.
The economic loss is likely to be much higher than the loss caused by the
loss of port services. In other words, the conflict with Ethiopia has
resulted in an economic loss of more than twice of the per-capita income
of the nation and is continuing to grow by the day.
The Diplomatic impact of the conflict
Eritrea was given the diplomatic upper hand when the boundary
commission gave Badme to Eritrea and Ethiopia refused to implement the
decision. This diplomatic upper hand has been completely lost and Eritrea
is now totally isolated. The best proof of that isolation is the fact that the
African Union in its recent summit in Libya chaired by Eritrea's remaining
friend Gadafi called for imposing sanctions on Eritrea, the first time that
the organization has done so to a member state in its history. Some people
suggest that this is so because of the diplomatic ineptitude of the Issayas
regime and skills and clout of the Ethiopians. It would be wrong to deny
that these factors have contributed to the complete diplomatic reversal.
But it would also be wrong to conclude that they are he main reasons for
the reversal. The key reason in my view is the ideology. It is the ideology
which forced the Issayas regime to put its objective of destroying the
Woyane regime above every thing else. It is its ideology which forced it to
look down on all Black African states and publicly abuse many of their
leaders. It is its ideology with militarism as one of its key characteristics
that forced the regime to intimidate any nation that it suspected of
sympathizing with Ethiopia including its recent invasion of Djibouti. It is
the ideology which forced it to support terrorists to destabilize the
Woyanes. It is the ideology which precipitated the confrontation with the
U.S, U.N and the international community as a whole. It is true that the
Woyanes used the opportunity given to them by the Issayas regime well.
It is also true that the Issayas regime has been unusually inept in its
diplomatic activities. But ultimately it is the ideology which created the
ground for Eritrea's total diplomatic isolation. As the threat of sanction
indicates the diplomatic isolation is getting worse by the way making
Eritrea's prospect of getting out of the quagmire it finds itself in very dim
indeed.
The Political melt-down of the regime
The ideology of the regime, which as we indicated is a convoluted form
of Eritrean highland chauvinism imbued with the concepts of the chosen
people, militarism and Spartan Stoicism, is facing a melt-down. The
population in the Muslim lowlands which was never enthusiastic about the
regime has become fully alienated from the regime. The Eritrea of the
regime including the so-called constitution does not cater for their
interests and does not respect their identity. Their second class citizenship
has been confirmed by all the policies and practices of the rgime. The
regime has overtime become more brazen in its policy of iscrimination.
The fact that up to half a million refugees from the owlands are vegetating
in refugee camps next door in Sudan at a time hen their land is being
expropriated by the "investors" from the ighlands and government
companies and used to settle desperate farmers from the highlands is
merely the most explosive manifestation of the policy of discrimination.
As a result separatist tendencies are taking root among the Kunama and
Afar. Islamicist political discourse, some of which is extremist, is taking
the upper hand in the lowlands. The political links between the highlands
and lowlands, Muslims and Christians are being broken on a daily basis
and the repression and discrimination is spawning extremism of various
types. This is bound to continue so long as the regime continues and will
test the nation's very existence to the limit.
The relation between the regime and what it considers as its core
constituency is also being undermined. The Jeberti were among the first
to be alienated along with their co-religionists in the lowlands and their
opposition is taking a distinctly Islamist coloring. Among the Christian
highlanders while there is no visible rejection of the regime's ideology and
while therefore the regime still has some unenthusiastic support, the
unconditional and enthusiastic support is gone. The youth have rejected
their fate as cannon fodder in the regime's militarist agenda and are leaving
the country in their thousands. As the regime's support weakens it is
having to depend on a more and more narrow circle for its survival and
has latched onto regionalism to do so. As a result there is wide spread
alienation in the regions of Akeleguzay and Serae and some areas in
Hamasien. Even ties within the highlands are thus fraying further
endangering the viability of the nation.
The Economic melt-down of the nation
As I indicated earlier the conflict with Ethiopia and the subsequent
diplomatic alienation has done untold damage to the economy of Eritrea.
The regime has added fuel to the fire not only by persisting in its
destructive ideology and objectives vis-à-vis the rest of the world but also
through its domestic policy. As the regime's voracious appetite for any
economic surplus increased due to the economic problems caused by the
conflict, its inherent tendency to monopolize all sources of profit reached
unprecedented levels and the private sector has to all intents and purposes
been eliminated. The hen that lays the golden eggs is dead in Eritrea.
The productive labor power has been immobilized because of the endless
national service, and the regime's policy of using Eritrea's manpower for
military purpose only. The Issayas regime has taken this policy which has
its roots in Italian colonial policy to its logical absurdity and now the only
university in the country has been shut down and replaced with military
barracks masquerading as colleges. The peasant farmers have lost the
labor and their incentive to produce more. The regime is appropriating the
most productive land and confiscating any surplus produced by the
farmers. The economy of the nation is in a process of accelerated
meltdown without any change in sight.
The Social melt-down of the nation
As much of the youth is in the trenches, families are breaking down
prostitution and extra marital sex is on the increase particularly in the
highlands. The youth particularly men are leaving the country turning
Eritrea into a nation of elders and children. The social decay is manifesting
itself in extreme forms of hedonism particularly among senior officials of
the regime. They consume untold amount of expensive alcohol, maintain
dozens of mistresses from among the hapless young girls and engage in
all sorts of criminal business activities including human trafficking to
cover the cost of their hedonism. The nation as a whole particularly the
youth appear to have lost hope in the nation. As a result the nation which
is supposed to have given birth to countless fearless heroes is now in the
grip of total fear and terror. No one appears to have the courage to
oppose and stop the decay. The only way out of this social and political
paralysis appears to be running away from it all, abandoning the nation for
greener pasture.
The Issayas regime and its ideology are thus the enemies that pose the
existential threat to the nation. They and their ideology have brought about
an economic, political and social melt-down of the nation and there is no
prospect of reversing that. They have engineered a total diplomatic
isolation of the nation and a military cage from which they are unable to
extricate themselves and their nation. The longer this goes on the more
likely that Eritrea will implode and cease to exist. That is the challenge we
all face. I hope to deal with a possible way out in my next posting.
May there be a landing in Eritrea soon!
Courtesy
Author's Previous Article
- EPLF's "Eritreanism" in the post independence era
| All rights reserved. |
| Ethio Quest News Together We Can Make It! |
 | |  | |  | |  | |  | |  | |  |
| Zersenay Tadese " He became the first person in Eritrean sporting history to win an Olympic medal.. More |
| Eritrea |
| Perpetuating Tyranny Under Mantel of Youth Festival "...Latest one out of such arsenals that tyrant Afawerki deploys in order to draw gullible youth to his indoctrination camp (aka Sawa) is the annual pilgrimage to SAWA" More |
| Eritrean Independence: Is It Worth All the Sacrifice? by Yosief Ghebrehiwet Distant dream of normal relation with Eritrea By Robele Ababya Why Not the Way Forward for the Horn Dear Col. Dawit Woldegiorgis? By Mellese Woldeselassie EPLF's "Eritreanism" in the post independence era by Mohammed Birhan Hagos Eritreans back to Ethiopia, why now? and why were they deported? By Ashanafi M UN council warns Eritrea over Somalia insurgency Reuters UN USA - Remarks by Ambassador Susan E. Rice, U.S...... "..But even now, it is not too late. The United States calls on the Government of Eritrea to seize this window of opportunity to change course..." More Fighting for Israel's African refugees By YAAKOV LAPPIN "Of the 17,000 refugees here, 8,000, the largest group, are Eritreans. The Eritrean military conscripts from the ages of 14 to 45. Soldiers don't have enough food to eat. Large numbers of young people flee." More A Response to Col. Dawit's Proposal by Free Bertukan Ethiopia and Eritrea: The Imperative to be Clearheaded in order to find our Way Forward by Hassan Umer Abdalla Ethiopia and Eritrea: Does Rational Politics Work? By Dessalegn Asfaw COLLABORATION WITH ERITREA IS BETRAYAL OF THE ETHIOPIAN NATION (PART I) By Tsegaye Kassa In Lieu of Eritrean & Ethiopian Ties by Amdemikael Mengisteab The way forward for Ethiopia and Eritrea by Dawit Woldegiorgis Eritrean Independence: Is It Worth All the Sacrifice? (1) by Yosief Ghebrehiwet The imperative for Ethiopians dealing with Eritrea By Neamin Zeleke Why Egypt Always Gets Her Way? Somaliland Press "... Another obstacle for Sheikh Sharif government is also AL-Shabab Group who has been armed by Egypt and Iran through Eritrea. This is also true that Sheikh Hassan Tahir and his supporters are getting help from Egypt through Eritrean channels...." More |
| Eritrea The Africans Focus Nile Politics Peace for Horn of Africa Eritrea Ghana Kenya Liberia Somalia South Africa Sudan Zimbabwe |
| Refugee voices: Looking for hope in Ethiopia (Relief Web) - "...I don't want to take any chances. They took our property before. How can we believe that they will give us nationality now? I fear..." More |
| Related Stories Working with Isaias Afwerki: A pragmatic necessity or the height of folly? By Ayal-Sew Dessye The Liberators Going North or Coming South By Zewge Fanta COLLABORATION WITH ERITREA IS BETRAYAL OF THE ETHIOPIAN NATION (PART III) By Tsegaye Kassa |
| Eritrean Independence: Is It Worth All the Sacrifice? (1) by Yosief Ghebrehiwet |
