NO AGREEMENT ON WATER SHARING AT
NILE COM MEETINGS
15 February, 2011 | Passed to the Telegraph by WikiLeaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 8/4/2009 15:14
Origin: Embassy Cairo
Classification: SECRET
Destination:
Header: VZCZCXYZ0004PP RUEHWEBDE RUEHEG #1506/01
2161514ZNY SSSSS ZZHP 041514Z AUG 09FM
AMEMBASSY CAIROTO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
3337
Tags: PGOV,PREL,EG
S E C R E T CAIRO 001506 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR
NEA/ELA, AF/SPG, AF/E, OES FOR SALZBERG E.O. 12958:
DECL: 07/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EG SUBJECT: NO
AGREEMENT ON WATER SHARING AT NILE COM
MEETINGS Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and
Political Affairs Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1.(C) Key Points: -- The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) ministers failed to
reach consensus on a Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) for
water sharing during July 27-28 meetings in Alexandria, but agreed to
a Sudanese proposal to continue CFA negotiations for six months. --
The seven upstream countries and two downstream countries appear
far from agreement. Egypt insists on a "guarantee" of its water quota
and upstream countries reject this because they want to increase their
use of Nile water to develop agricultural industries. -- Numerous
meetings between Ethiopian and Egyptian representatives during and
subsequent to the conference may signal the possibility for Addis
Ababa to play a moderating role between upstream and downstream
countries. -- A cooperative mood prevailed at the Nile Technical
Advisory Committee (TAC) meetings on July 25-26. Many
participants hope that the future focus of the NBI will be on
technology transfer and benefit-sharing. -- The British, Canadian, and
UNDP representatives all support the creation of a formal government
institution as the best way to manage the NBI process.
2.(S) Comment: Egyptian officials were extremely tense during the
conference. PM Ahmed Nazif, Minister of Water Resources
Mohamed Nasr Al Din Allam, Minister of International Cooperation
Fayza Aboul Naga, and the assistant and deputy assistant ministers
from the Egyptian MFA's Africa and Sudan offices attended. The
broad senior-level participation reflects the paramount importance that
the GoE places on the Nile waters issue and its concern over the
direction of the NBI. Egypt views access to its quota of Nile waters
as a national security issue, and creation of a system that threatens this
quota will be seen as an existential threat, possibly forcing Egypt to
withdraw from the NBI. Based on discussions among donor
countries, there may be an opportunity for Ethiopia to play a
moderating role in the current impasse as the only country that has a
level of trust from among both upstream and downstream countries.
End Comment. ----------------------------------- No Agreement;
Negotiations Extended -----------------------------------
3.(C) NBI ministers failed to reach consensus on a CFA for water
sharing during July 25-28 meetings in Alexandria, but agreed to
continue CFA negotiations for six months. However, the seven
upstream countries and two downstream countries are far from
reaching an acceptable agreement. Egypt opposed an agreement,
proposed by seven upstream countries, to create a Nile Basin
Commission to decide on water usage and allocation because it failed
to guarantee Egypt's access to 55.5 billion cubic meters of water
annually, as guaranteed by the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement.
Upstream countries led by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda argued that
climate change has changed the circumstances, making it difficult to
rely on rain-fed agriculture, and they need to use Nile water for
agriculture, power, fisheries, and other water-dependent industries
necessary for their "security." Egypt, with some support from Sudan,
maintained that downstream countries must approve any water use by
upstream countries that could reduce their "guaranteed quotas" of
water and threaten their existence.
4.(C) Mohamed El Mullah, Egyptian MFA cabinet advisor for
African Affairs told Poloff on July 30 that Tanzania presented a paper
in closed door meetings agreeing to a six-month delay in signing an
agreement during which the TAC and negotiation committee will
propose solutions on the way forward. However, the Tanzanian paper
states that the Kinshasa and Nairobi conferences will serve as the
basis for future negotiations. According to El Mullah, Egypt will
present a counter-paper stating that Egypt and Sudan believe that the
Kinshasa and Nairobi conferences were "improper" and "illegal" and
cannot be the basis for any negotiations. Egypt will also assert that
article 14 (b) of the CFA on water usage and allocation must be
included in a CFA and cannot be part of an annex.
-------------------------- Sudan: A More Nuanced View
--------------------------
5.(C) Sudan's Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed
Ali Kamal said on July 27 that "extreme" Nile Basin countries should
reconsider attempts to sign the CFA to give time for "cool down" and
further negotiations. Kamal El Din Ali, the head of the Sudanese
National Congress Party (NCP) office in Cairo told us on July 30 the
Government of Sudan proposed the delay in negotiations in
Alexandria to avert problems. He said upstream countries listened
because they "trust Sudan more than Egypt." Ali acknowledged Egypt
is in the most precarious position because it relies on the Nile for 95%
of its water needs, while Sudan only gets 60% of its water from the
Nile. However, he said Egypt needs to show more flexibility by not
insisting on its "historical rights," and blocking Nile development
projects in Sudan and other upstream countries. Ali said Egypt should
use its expertise to assist upstream countries to better manage water
resources and help them to meet their water needs. (Note: Egypt
engages in development projects in upstream countries aimed at
increasing water flow and reducing evaporation. End Note).
--------------------------------------------- -- Egypt and Ethiopia:
Compromise or Confrontation
--------------------------------------------- --
6.(C) The Egyptian and Ethiopian water ministers met bilaterally
behind closed doors on July 26. This meeting was followed by an
Eastern Nile (Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan) ministers meeting. Egyptian
MFA's El Mullah told us Ethiopia's stated concern with the legality of
the Kinshasa and Nairobi meetings earned it Egypt's confidence and
respect. According to the African Infrastructure advisor at the British
Department for International Development, the successful Eastern
Nile meeting showed that there may be growing trust in Ethiopia's role
as a broker between the upstream and downstream countries. She
said that this could lead to the creation of multi-purpose dams in
Ethiopia, which would allow Egypt to draw down Lake Nasser and
reduce evaporation in the Nile Basin. (Note Lake Nasser loses more
than 10 billion cubic meters per year to evaporation. End Note). A
Canadian Emboff who attended the conference told us that Ethiopian
Minister of Water Resources Asfaw Dingamo appeared to play a
moderating role between Egypt and Sudan on one side and Kenya
and Tanzania on the other during the July 28 closed door session.
7.(C) David Grey, Head of Global Water Resources for the World
Bank, doubted that Ethiopia and Egypt could reach an agreement on
Nile waters in the near future. He said Egyptian President Mubarak
and Ethiopian President Meles have taken public positions on Nile
water issues that impinge upon their ability to compromise. Grey
stated that concessions by either leader would be viewed as a
capitulation by their respective populations.
----------------------------------------- Spirit of Cooperation
Prevails in the TAC -----------------------------------------
8.(C) All nine countries praised the work of the Nile TAC, which
preceded the ministerial meetings on July 25-26, in implementing
development projects. According to Egypt's TAC chair Wael Khairy,
the NBI currently has 25 development projects in numerous Nile
Basin countries. However, he noted privately that none were in Egypt.
Mirey Atallah, Regional Team Leader at the UNDP, said the future of
the NBI must focus on concept of technology transfer and benefit-
sharing under the auspices of the TAC. She stated that even if future
water quotas are reduced, different technologies that can increase
"production per drop" would help enhance agricultural production
throughout the Nile Basin. Atallah stated that Egypt is the most
technologically advanced of the NBI countries, possesses the "best
economy," and must realize the responsibilities that come with being
the basin's "hegemon." She said the NBI stresses regional
cooperation, which she contends is intended to level the playing field
and benefit the less developed countries. El Mullah stated the GoE is
anxious to continue helping with development projects in other NBI
countries, but in return it needs to guarantee its water rights.
Otherwise, Egypt fears "the NBI is all give and no take."
--------------------------------------------- --------- Need for an
Regional Institution to Manage the Process
--------------------------------------------- ---------
10.(C) The British, Canadian, and UNDP representatives all support
the creation of a formal government institution as the best way to
manage the NBI process. The World Bank's Grey said the Bank is
not opposed to the formation of a formal institution before resolving
the status of water rights, but opined that Egypt will never agree.
Egyptian MFA's El Mullah told us that Egypt may consider supporting
the formation of a formal Nile Basin institution that made decisions
based on "consensus." However, he expressed concern that if the
GoE engages in upstream development and agrees to defer work on
water usage and allocation, it will be left hanging without a future
"guarantee" that it can obtain its water rights.
------------------------------------------ Egyptian Water Minister
Attempts To Engage ------------------------------------------
11.(C) Dr. Abdel Fattah Metawie, Chairman of the Nile Water
section in the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources said the African
delegations are often difficult to engage with because they have a
"racial and tribal orientation." However, he told us Minister Allam had
a made it a priority to reach out to the Africans to work cooperatively
on riparian issues. Allam was very friendly to all participants and he
personally greeted all people in the room. He made a proactive effort
to engage with African delegations. However, Grey blamed Allam for
the current impasse. He said Allam's "harsh approach" in Kinshasa
where he "demanded Egypt's historical rights" and the DRC's poor
management had created a "divided group." SCOBEY
Courtesy
NILE COM MEETINGS
15 February, 2011 | Passed to the Telegraph by WikiLeaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: 8/4/2009 15:14
Origin: Embassy Cairo
Classification: SECRET
Destination:
Header: VZCZCXYZ0004PP RUEHWEBDE RUEHEG #1506/01
2161514ZNY SSSSS ZZHP 041514Z AUG 09FM
AMEMBASSY CAIROTO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
3337
Tags: PGOV,PREL,EG
S E C R E T CAIRO 001506 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR
NEA/ELA, AF/SPG, AF/E, OES FOR SALZBERG E.O. 12958:
DECL: 07/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EG SUBJECT: NO
AGREEMENT ON WATER SHARING AT NILE COM
MEETINGS Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and
Political Affairs Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1.(C) Key Points: -- The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) ministers failed to
reach consensus on a Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) for
water sharing during July 27-28 meetings in Alexandria, but agreed to
a Sudanese proposal to continue CFA negotiations for six months. --
The seven upstream countries and two downstream countries appear
far from agreement. Egypt insists on a "guarantee" of its water quota
and upstream countries reject this because they want to increase their
use of Nile water to develop agricultural industries. -- Numerous
meetings between Ethiopian and Egyptian representatives during and
subsequent to the conference may signal the possibility for Addis
Ababa to play a moderating role between upstream and downstream
countries. -- A cooperative mood prevailed at the Nile Technical
Advisory Committee (TAC) meetings on July 25-26. Many
participants hope that the future focus of the NBI will be on
technology transfer and benefit-sharing. -- The British, Canadian, and
UNDP representatives all support the creation of a formal government
institution as the best way to manage the NBI process.
2.(S) Comment: Egyptian officials were extremely tense during the
conference. PM Ahmed Nazif, Minister of Water Resources
Mohamed Nasr Al Din Allam, Minister of International Cooperation
Fayza Aboul Naga, and the assistant and deputy assistant ministers
from the Egyptian MFA's Africa and Sudan offices attended. The
broad senior-level participation reflects the paramount importance that
the GoE places on the Nile waters issue and its concern over the
direction of the NBI. Egypt views access to its quota of Nile waters
as a national security issue, and creation of a system that threatens this
quota will be seen as an existential threat, possibly forcing Egypt to
withdraw from the NBI. Based on discussions among donor
countries, there may be an opportunity for Ethiopia to play a
moderating role in the current impasse as the only country that has a
level of trust from among both upstream and downstream countries.
End Comment. ----------------------------------- No Agreement;
Negotiations Extended -----------------------------------
3.(C) NBI ministers failed to reach consensus on a CFA for water
sharing during July 25-28 meetings in Alexandria, but agreed to
continue CFA negotiations for six months. However, the seven
upstream countries and two downstream countries are far from
reaching an acceptable agreement. Egypt opposed an agreement,
proposed by seven upstream countries, to create a Nile Basin
Commission to decide on water usage and allocation because it failed
to guarantee Egypt's access to 55.5 billion cubic meters of water
annually, as guaranteed by the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement.
Upstream countries led by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda argued that
climate change has changed the circumstances, making it difficult to
rely on rain-fed agriculture, and they need to use Nile water for
agriculture, power, fisheries, and other water-dependent industries
necessary for their "security." Egypt, with some support from Sudan,
maintained that downstream countries must approve any water use by
upstream countries that could reduce their "guaranteed quotas" of
water and threaten their existence.
4.(C) Mohamed El Mullah, Egyptian MFA cabinet advisor for
African Affairs told Poloff on July 30 that Tanzania presented a paper
in closed door meetings agreeing to a six-month delay in signing an
agreement during which the TAC and negotiation committee will
propose solutions on the way forward. However, the Tanzanian paper
states that the Kinshasa and Nairobi conferences will serve as the
basis for future negotiations. According to El Mullah, Egypt will
present a counter-paper stating that Egypt and Sudan believe that the
Kinshasa and Nairobi conferences were "improper" and "illegal" and
cannot be the basis for any negotiations. Egypt will also assert that
article 14 (b) of the CFA on water usage and allocation must be
included in a CFA and cannot be part of an annex.
-------------------------- Sudan: A More Nuanced View
--------------------------
5.(C) Sudan's Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed
Ali Kamal said on July 27 that "extreme" Nile Basin countries should
reconsider attempts to sign the CFA to give time for "cool down" and
further negotiations. Kamal El Din Ali, the head of the Sudanese
National Congress Party (NCP) office in Cairo told us on July 30 the
Government of Sudan proposed the delay in negotiations in
Alexandria to avert problems. He said upstream countries listened
because they "trust Sudan more than Egypt." Ali acknowledged Egypt
is in the most precarious position because it relies on the Nile for 95%
of its water needs, while Sudan only gets 60% of its water from the
Nile. However, he said Egypt needs to show more flexibility by not
insisting on its "historical rights," and blocking Nile development
projects in Sudan and other upstream countries. Ali said Egypt should
use its expertise to assist upstream countries to better manage water
resources and help them to meet their water needs. (Note: Egypt
engages in development projects in upstream countries aimed at
increasing water flow and reducing evaporation. End Note).
--------------------------------------------- -- Egypt and Ethiopia:
Compromise or Confrontation
--------------------------------------------- --
6.(C) The Egyptian and Ethiopian water ministers met bilaterally
behind closed doors on July 26. This meeting was followed by an
Eastern Nile (Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan) ministers meeting. Egyptian
MFA's El Mullah told us Ethiopia's stated concern with the legality of
the Kinshasa and Nairobi meetings earned it Egypt's confidence and
respect. According to the African Infrastructure advisor at the British
Department for International Development, the successful Eastern
Nile meeting showed that there may be growing trust in Ethiopia's role
as a broker between the upstream and downstream countries. She
said that this could lead to the creation of multi-purpose dams in
Ethiopia, which would allow Egypt to draw down Lake Nasser and
reduce evaporation in the Nile Basin. (Note Lake Nasser loses more
than 10 billion cubic meters per year to evaporation. End Note). A
Canadian Emboff who attended the conference told us that Ethiopian
Minister of Water Resources Asfaw Dingamo appeared to play a
moderating role between Egypt and Sudan on one side and Kenya
and Tanzania on the other during the July 28 closed door session.
7.(C) David Grey, Head of Global Water Resources for the World
Bank, doubted that Ethiopia and Egypt could reach an agreement on
Nile waters in the near future. He said Egyptian President Mubarak
and Ethiopian President Meles have taken public positions on Nile
water issues that impinge upon their ability to compromise. Grey
stated that concessions by either leader would be viewed as a
capitulation by their respective populations.
----------------------------------------- Spirit of Cooperation
Prevails in the TAC -----------------------------------------
8.(C) All nine countries praised the work of the Nile TAC, which
preceded the ministerial meetings on July 25-26, in implementing
development projects. According to Egypt's TAC chair Wael Khairy,
the NBI currently has 25 development projects in numerous Nile
Basin countries. However, he noted privately that none were in Egypt.
Mirey Atallah, Regional Team Leader at the UNDP, said the future of
the NBI must focus on concept of technology transfer and benefit-
sharing under the auspices of the TAC. She stated that even if future
water quotas are reduced, different technologies that can increase
"production per drop" would help enhance agricultural production
throughout the Nile Basin. Atallah stated that Egypt is the most
technologically advanced of the NBI countries, possesses the "best
economy," and must realize the responsibilities that come with being
the basin's "hegemon." She said the NBI stresses regional
cooperation, which she contends is intended to level the playing field
and benefit the less developed countries. El Mullah stated the GoE is
anxious to continue helping with development projects in other NBI
countries, but in return it needs to guarantee its water rights.
Otherwise, Egypt fears "the NBI is all give and no take."
--------------------------------------------- --------- Need for an
Regional Institution to Manage the Process
--------------------------------------------- ---------
10.(C) The British, Canadian, and UNDP representatives all support
the creation of a formal government institution as the best way to
manage the NBI process. The World Bank's Grey said the Bank is
not opposed to the formation of a formal institution before resolving
the status of water rights, but opined that Egypt will never agree.
Egyptian MFA's El Mullah told us that Egypt may consider supporting
the formation of a formal Nile Basin institution that made decisions
based on "consensus." However, he expressed concern that if the
GoE engages in upstream development and agrees to defer work on
water usage and allocation, it will be left hanging without a future
"guarantee" that it can obtain its water rights.
------------------------------------------ Egyptian Water Minister
Attempts To Engage ------------------------------------------
11.(C) Dr. Abdel Fattah Metawie, Chairman of the Nile Water
section in the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources said the African
delegations are often difficult to engage with because they have a
"racial and tribal orientation." However, he told us Minister Allam had
a made it a priority to reach out to the Africans to work cooperatively
on riparian issues. Allam was very friendly to all participants and he
personally greeted all people in the room. He made a proactive effort
to engage with African delegations. However, Grey blamed Allam for
the current impasse. He said Allam's "harsh approach" in Kinshasa
where he "demanded Egypt's historical rights" and the DRC's poor
management had created a "divided group." SCOBEY
Courtesy
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