Is a water war on the horizon over the
Nile River?
25 May, 2010 | By Gwynne Dyer
------------------------------------------------------------------
Egypt is the economic and cultural superpower of the Arab world:
its 78 million people account for almost a third of the world’s
Arabic-speaking population.
But 99 percent of it is open desert, and if it were not for the Nile
river running through that desert, Egypt’s population would not be
any bigger than Libya’s (5 million).
So Cairo takes a dim view of anything that might diminish the flow
of that river.
Back in 1929, when the British empire controlled Egypt, Sudan,
and most of the countries further upstream in East Africa, it
sponsored an agreement giving Cairo the right to veto any
developments upstream that would decrease the amount of water in
Nile.
The rationale at the time was that the upstream countries had ample
rainfall, whereas Egypt and Sudan (at the time ruled as one country)
depended totally on the Nile’s waters.
Thirty years later, in 1959, when Egypt and Sudan were already
independent but all of the upstream states except Ethiopia were still
colonies, Egypt and Sudan signed another agreement. It left only 10
percent of the Nile’s water to the seven upstream countries, while
giving Egypt almost 80 percent and Sudan the rest.
The argument was still the same: the countries further upstream had
rainfall, while it hardly ever rains in Egypt or Sudan.
Now the upstream countries that got almost no water in that deal
are rejecting it.
Thirteen years ago, they persuaded Egypt and Sudan to start talks
on the river, but they have now concluded that the two Arab
countries really only joined the negotiations to prevent any new
deal. So they are now going ahead without them.
Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania and Ethiopia signed an agreement on
14 May to seek more water from the Nile.<.p>
Kenya signed last week, and the Congo and Burundi are expected
to do so soon.
Kenya’s minister of water resources, Charity Ngilu, described the
1929 treaty as “obsolete and timeworn”, and said that Egypt and
Sudan had “no choice” but to negotiate a reallocation of the Nile’s
waters.
The Egyptian government replied that the new agreement “is in no
way binding on Egypt from a legal perspective," and that "Egypt will
not join or sign any agreement that affects its share.”
It’s an understandable perspective, since Cairo must figure out how
to feed not 78 but 95 million Egyptians in only fifteen years’ time.
But it is a perspective that gets little sympathy in Addis Ababa,
which must feed 91 million Ethiopians now but will have to find food
for 140 million fifteen years from now.
All the countries in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have far
higher population growth rates than Egypt, and they are getting
worried about how to feed their people. So they want to use some
of the Nile’s water for irrigation projects for their own.
Ethiopia, whose rivers provides 85 percent of the water that
eventually reaches Egypt, is especially militant.
As Ethiopian president Meles Zenawi said earlier this year: "The
current regime cannot be sustained. It's being sustained because of
the diplomatic clout of Egypt. There will come a time when the
people of East Africa and Ethiopia will become too desperate to
care about these diplomatic niceties. Then, they are going to act."
Predictions of “water wars” are commonplace, and yet they hardly
ever happen. It’s almost always cheaper to cut a deal and share the
water.
But the Nile basin contains 400 million people today, and Egypt and
Sudan, with only 120 million people, are using almost all of its water.
In 15 years’ time there will be almost 800 million people in the Nile
basin, and only 150 million of them will be Egyptians and Sudanese.
It is very hard to believe that the latter two countries will still be able
to keep 90 percent of the river’s water for their own use. On the
other hand, how do they survive without it?
In the past, Egypt has safeguarded its share by threats of military
action.
Since it was in an entirely different military league from the countries
to the south, those threats had some substance. But now the military
disparities are less impressive, and Egypt’s options have narrowed
dramatically.
As Ethiopia's Zenawi said recently: "I think it is an open secret that
the Egyptians have troops that are specialized in jungle warfare.
Egypt is not known for its jungles. So if these troops are trained in
jungle warfare, they are probably trained to fight in the jungles of the
East African countries.
“From time to time Egyptian presidents have threatened countries
with military action if they move. While I cannot completely discount
the sabre-rattling, I do not think it is a feasible option. If Egypt were
to plan to stop Ethiopia from utilizing the Nile waters it would have
to occupy Ethiopia, and no country on earth has done that in the
past."
Courtesy
Nile River?
25 May, 2010 | By Gwynne Dyer
------------------------------------------------------------------
- After he signed the
Egyptian-Israeli
peace treaty in 1979,
Egyptian president
Anwar Sadat said:
“The only matter that
could take Egypt to
war again is water.”
Well, the world kept
turning, and now a
Egypt is the economic and cultural superpower of the Arab world:
its 78 million people account for almost a third of the world’s
Arabic-speaking population.
But 99 percent of it is open desert, and if it were not for the Nile
river running through that desert, Egypt’s population would not be
any bigger than Libya’s (5 million).
So Cairo takes a dim view of anything that might diminish the flow
of that river.
Back in 1929, when the British empire controlled Egypt, Sudan,
and most of the countries further upstream in East Africa, it
sponsored an agreement giving Cairo the right to veto any
developments upstream that would decrease the amount of water in
Nile.
The rationale at the time was that the upstream countries had ample
rainfall, whereas Egypt and Sudan (at the time ruled as one country)
depended totally on the Nile’s waters.
Thirty years later, in 1959, when Egypt and Sudan were already
independent but all of the upstream states except Ethiopia were still
colonies, Egypt and Sudan signed another agreement. It left only 10
percent of the Nile’s water to the seven upstream countries, while
giving Egypt almost 80 percent and Sudan the rest.
The argument was still the same: the countries further upstream had
rainfall, while it hardly ever rains in Egypt or Sudan.
Now the upstream countries that got almost no water in that deal
are rejecting it.
Thirteen years ago, they persuaded Egypt and Sudan to start talks
on the river, but they have now concluded that the two Arab
countries really only joined the negotiations to prevent any new
deal. So they are now going ahead without them.
Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania and Ethiopia signed an agreement on
14 May to seek more water from the Nile.<.p>
Kenya signed last week, and the Congo and Burundi are expected
to do so soon.
Kenya’s minister of water resources, Charity Ngilu, described the
1929 treaty as “obsolete and timeworn”, and said that Egypt and
Sudan had “no choice” but to negotiate a reallocation of the Nile’s
waters.
The Egyptian government replied that the new agreement “is in no
way binding on Egypt from a legal perspective," and that "Egypt will
not join or sign any agreement that affects its share.”
It’s an understandable perspective, since Cairo must figure out how
to feed not 78 but 95 million Egyptians in only fifteen years’ time.
But it is a perspective that gets little sympathy in Addis Ababa,
which must feed 91 million Ethiopians now but will have to find food
for 140 million fifteen years from now.
All the countries in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have far
higher population growth rates than Egypt, and they are getting
worried about how to feed their people. So they want to use some
of the Nile’s water for irrigation projects for their own.
Ethiopia, whose rivers provides 85 percent of the water that
eventually reaches Egypt, is especially militant.
As Ethiopian president Meles Zenawi said earlier this year: "The
current regime cannot be sustained. It's being sustained because of
the diplomatic clout of Egypt. There will come a time when the
people of East Africa and Ethiopia will become too desperate to
care about these diplomatic niceties. Then, they are going to act."
Predictions of “water wars” are commonplace, and yet they hardly
ever happen. It’s almost always cheaper to cut a deal and share the
water.
But the Nile basin contains 400 million people today, and Egypt and
Sudan, with only 120 million people, are using almost all of its water.
In 15 years’ time there will be almost 800 million people in the Nile
basin, and only 150 million of them will be Egyptians and Sudanese.
It is very hard to believe that the latter two countries will still be able
to keep 90 percent of the river’s water for their own use. On the
other hand, how do they survive without it?
In the past, Egypt has safeguarded its share by threats of military
action.
Since it was in an entirely different military league from the countries
to the south, those threats had some substance. But now the military
disparities are less impressive, and Egypt’s options have narrowed
dramatically.
As Ethiopia's Zenawi said recently: "I think it is an open secret that
the Egyptians have troops that are specialized in jungle warfare.
Egypt is not known for its jungles. So if these troops are trained in
jungle warfare, they are probably trained to fight in the jungles of the
East African countries.
“From time to time Egyptian presidents have threatened countries
with military action if they move. While I cannot completely discount
the sabre-rattling, I do not think it is a feasible option. If Egypt were
to plan to stop Ethiopia from utilizing the Nile waters it would have
to occupy Ethiopia, and no country on earth has done that in the
past."
Courtesy
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