Struggle over The River Nile; what
should be Sudan's strategy?
27 October, 2009 | Professor Ali Abdalla ALI
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“Lo. Allah changeth not the condition of a folk until they
change that which is in their hearts” Quran
October 24, 2009 — During the month of August 2009 a one day
conference was arranged by the International Centre for African
Studies (ICFS) in Khartoum. This centre was established and financed
by Libya Gamahiriya under the responsibility of Mr. Abdalla Zackaria, a
Sudanese thinker who is an avid admirer of Libya and President
Gaddafi. Like many Sudanese he believed the Libyan leader to be the
successor of late Nasir.
profession and is well versed on the legal aspects of the Nile water
agreements. The second was Dr. Salah Yousif who is a highly qualified
engineer extremely familiar with all the technical aspects of the Nile
Basin and is responsible for the affairs of the |Nile water resources in
the Ministry of Irrigation. The third speaker was Dr. Seif El Din Yousif
of the National Security who has deep knowledge of the external
intervention of some countries in the affairs of the Nile Basin specially
the Israeli designs and their pressures to impact both Sudan and Egypt
through developing their relations with countries who constitute the Nile
Basin in Eastern and Central Africa.
Unfortunately I was not able to stay long enough to listen to
interventions on this vital and timely issue. However, I came to know
that the discussion was very objective, sincere and transparent. While
listening to these three experienced Sudanese experts’ three major
thoughts came across my mind. One was that Sudan is endowed with
very able, sincere and objective scholars and technicians who given the
proper environment and confidence could solve Sudan’s various
economic and social problems and institute the much needed
transformation. Second was my feeling that the economic and social
dimension although mentioned slightly were not given their proper
place. But that does not reduce the importance of the deep knowledge
presented by these three Sudanese professionals. The Sudanese people
have to know the implications of their rights on the waters of the Nile
which most flow through the Sudan and the Sudanese has the primary
right to use such waters. Moreover, they were never consulted on such
an issue specially in the 1959 agreement as we shall see, which was
imposed from above during the military rule of late Abboud before the
construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD). In a remark by Dr. Al
Mufti, he said all Egypt was in Alexandria (!) meaning to say that all
Egyptians were setting their eyes on the meeting because they know
pretty well how the Nile is crucial to their lives. The Sudanese people
need to be more aware as to why they need the water from the both
Niles . The third thought which was a very strong one was what kind
of strategy could Sudan adopt in order to secure its national interests
given the present status quo? My strong feeling was and still that while
a country such Egypt knows pretty well what it wanted from the River
Nile, since it strongly believes Egypt is “The Gift of the Nile” as
described by a Greek philosopher in the fifth century AD, I feel unsure
about our own strategy. My feeling had always been that our national
interests were often dealt within the frame of the official Egyptian
strategy and the usual spirit of eternal brotherhood. In other words I
greatly respect Egypt’s choice of a certain strategy, but I am like many
Sudanese extremely believe that Egypt’s strategy is often carried out at
the expense of Sudan’s national interests.
This is what I would like to prove through my experiences and
observations over the last forty five years as a young officer in the
Bank of Sudan(1963-1977), as Economic Advisor to three ministers of
finance (specially during the office of late Bheiry) , as a development
journalist, as a member of the United Nation Institute of Planning
Dakar, Senegal and as an academician in DSRC, University of
Khartoum (1982-1985); the National Council for Research (1995-
1997), and Sudan University of Science and Technology(1998-2008) .
Through all these years I have been noticing that official Egypt had
always been thinking about its own interests – in a single-minded and
determined attitude- more than caring to the interests of Sudan ,Ethiopia
and others. In short words a sort of superiority over all else. We have
always been made by Egypt to feel that we are the younger brother
who is supposed to only listen and obey and conform on every issue
related to Egypt even if the younger brother had to sacrifice his rights
to the big brother. Every file in the relation between Sudan and Egypt is
always kept in closed drawers and guarded with heavy secrecy.
After proving what I believe in I shall try to lay down a strategy for the
Sudan given the present geopolitics in the area.
1. From a historical perspective I would like to refer to a very important
citation by an Egyptian Army Colonel in 1949 who wrote about the
relation between Egypt and Sudan (see Also Ali,”The Sudanese
Egyptian relations; Crisis behind Silence”.(sudantribune.com-19th.May
2008);
“No politician can ignore Egypt’s interest in the Sudan. Its permanent
and vital interest concerns Egypt’s life. Egypt gets its water from the
Nile which flows in the heart of the Sudan. The Nile to Egypt is a
matter of life and death. If the water of the river were controlled by a
hostile state or a state that could become a hostile state Egypt’s life is
over. Of course ,whoever controls the Sudan naturally controls the
Northern Nile Valley. Egypt in this era of conflicting political ideologies
cannot trust the neighbours of the Sudan. Today’s friends may become
tomorrow’s enemies. For this reason all of Egypt’s efforts are to
secure life in the coming future.”That was said in 1949.Let us see what
was said 59 years later by a young Sudanese journalist.
Mubarak Ahmed of ´”Al Sahafa” daily who wrote on 26th. April 2008;
“The Sudanese Egyptian relations are often described as being eternal
and deep down in history. However, this description is always brought
to the fore as a pretext to cover up a number of issues and obstacles
that stand in the way of smooth movement of the relation between the
two countries. These issues remained folded away for very long times
in files which should not be talked about and everybody should remain
silent on them!!”.
Therefore, it seems clear that nothing had substantially changed since
1949. The targets remain the same as well as Egypt’s unusual
obsession about the Nile !
2.The issue of Halaib Triangle (HT) .The awareness about this issue
and its comprehension came later on in one’s life. The issue is well
known to every Sudanese. In 1958 while Abdalla Khalil was the
Sudanese Prime Minister, Egyptian troops entered the HT claiming that
it belonged to Egypt. That was at the time of President Nasir (see Ali
Abdalla Ali,” Halaib 1958;How the Crisis came about and how it was
solved?”translation, 87 pages,1995 and 2008,Sudan Currency Press Co.
). Both Sudan and Egypt almost went to war. A number of countries
intervened to stop the escalation of the issue. Sudan decided to resort to
the UNSC. At that time almost all the members of the UN stood firm on
the side of the Sudan. Nasir had to order his forces whether border
troops or army members to withdraw and declared in Damascus, Syria
that:
“… the news media had distorted the issue and that it is impossible for
an Arab country to entertain doing such an act and that no Arab
country would go to war with another Arab country.” Nasir then added
that ,”this is one of the tools of imperialism that aim at dividing between
us and make us hate each other. I am positively sure that the
enlightened Arab media in Sudan and the United Arab Republic shall
prevail.” (see Ali-p.84-85 ).
However, the issue remained in the drawers of the UNSC until today.
Official Egypt often claim that the files were closed for ever. Everyone
knows that is not the case. The simple reason is that the successive
Sudanese governments who took care of governance in Sudan had
always more urgent and more pressing issues than to claim the HT!!
Moreover ,it was often used by Egypt as a sort of pressure on Sudan ,
whenever it felt that Sudanese politics was at a low ebb. It erupted
again in 1995 and continued to be a thorn on the side of the relations
between the Sudan and Egypt. As Sudanese politics became
complicated vide the issues of South Sudan and Darfur in the Western
region and Sudan became busy with its internal problems , Egypt took it
as a chance to spread its control over the HT specially during the last
two decades. The issue has come up again since the Sudanese election
(2010) has to cover HT as was the case in 1958.A number of articles
of came out raising the issue and worried about the fate of HT in the
forthcoming elections. One such article was by a veteran and well
known and respected journalist and who is also partner in the well
known Al Ayyam daily i.e. Mahgoub Osman. He had to live in exile in
Egypt when the present government took over in 1989, yet he had to
advise Egypt as regards HT in the context of the 2010 elections. The
Assistant to the Sudanese President, Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie (See Ali-2008)
stated that ,”Halaib is 100 % Sudanese but we shall not fight Egypt over
it”. No one in his/her rightful senses wish to have war with Egypt.
However, one feels that Egypt goes on insisting on occupying the HT
claiming that it is Egyptian. Egypt instead of appreciating the
complicated political situation through which Sudan is passing and
offers to negotiate the HT still Egyptian officials like their bosses
continue to declare that HT is a matter that should be forgotten by the
Sudan. Rights are not easily forgotten. Moreover, official Egypt knows
fairly well that if Sudan decided to reactivate the issue in the UNSC at
the moment, it might not at all obtain the strong support of the
members of the UNSC as happened in 1958 !! How can such a position
be thought of except that it is a narrow and short sighted attitude on the
part of Egyptian officials . Egypt Instead of relieving the Sudan from
such pressures it continues to enjoy putting more pressures on the
Sudan and the Sudanese. That is what makes one feel that Egypt knows
nothing else except its own narrow interest even if it is to be at the
expense of others! Such an attitude was explained to me by a fellow
historian which he attributes to the nature of the relation between those
who governed Egypt through the ages and the citizen of that country.
Whatever is taken to mean Egypt’s national interest is carried down to
the low levels as something sacred and never subject to any meaningful
discussion or compromise. He added that most Egyptians repeat
verbatim the proverb which says that” he who teaches me a word ,I
become his slave,” forgetting that one’s serfdom is towards His Creator
Al Mighty God !!
3. In the early sixties while I was a young officer in the Research
Department, Bank of Sudan I was trained in the balance of payments
which later on became one of major interests in economics, I was
concerned with the bilateral trade agreements which at that time were
with Egypt, India and the countries of the then Soviet Union. While
working on the trade agreement with Egypt, I used to notice the various
financial problems faced by the Sudanese exporters who used to take
their Camels to Egypt. They used to be treated very unfairly by
Egyptians and Egyptian banks. Their problems became a major item in
the agenda of the annual meetings between Sudanese and Egyptian
officials in the two countries. I met a number of these traders who felt
terribly bad in the way they were manipulated and given hard time. I
often wondered as to why these people were treated so badly if they are
assumed to be eternal brothers. The explanation came later when I used
to visit Cairo and saw how Egyptians used to treat Sudanese specially if
there is any sort of turbulence in the official relations between the two
countries. The Sudanese or even the Nubians are portrayed in a very
disdainful manner as if coming from another planet. The general media
often gives a very distorted picture of the Sudanese and the Nubians
until to day. Dr. Hisham Adam (himself Nubian) recently wrote a very
powerful article in Al Sahafa ( dated 25/9/2009 – titled.”When will the
Egyptian Cinema stop their sarcasm of the Nubians and Sudanese ?”).
Dr Adam pleaded to those Egyptians who are in charge of the Cinema
industry to stop looking down on the Nubians and Sudanese and to stop
portraying them as sub-human and that such an attitude shall be
extremely harmful to the relation between the two countries.
4.In 1972(11/11), I was seconded to the United Nations Institute for
Economic Planning (IDEP) as a visiting lecturer for one year renewable
. At that time the Director was a well known Egyptian Professor Samir
Amin. He met me in a conference in Dar essalam, Tanzania in 1971 and
offered me to join IDEP so that I could help in the training of African
planners. At the same time I got an offer from the World Bank to join
as a Loan Officer but preferred to go to an African country.. While I
was there , there were two other Egyptians. After a lapse of some
months I was requested to present a research proposal to be financed
by IDEP.I chose a subject which was very much to my heart.It is an
idea that still lives with me until today. The title was,” The Possibilities
of Integration between the countries of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia ”.
The other was,”The Political Economy of Dam Building in the Nile
Basin,”. I presented my proposals in a naïve manner never expecting
that such titles would stir such a storm specially on the part of one of
the two other Egyptians. Professor Amin did not talk to me directly but
pushed the other Egyptian Dr. Khalil to tell me about what they thought.
Dr Khalil and in a very crude rough and threatening voice said to me.”
What do you think you are proposing? How come you make such a
proposal for economic integration between Sudan and Ethiopia while
we are your big brothers and you cannot ignore us?” The proposals
were ultimately rejected and I had to stay for only one year instead of
some more years as promised. The reason was my reservation on the
way IDEP was run both financially and academically and with the help
of our Minister of |Foreign Affairs at that time (Dr. Mansour Khalid)
such reservations were passed to the UNECA in Addis at the time of Mr.
Gardiner and was consequently passed to the UNDP Administrator who
used to help in financing IDEP.
5.In 1975 and while working in Bank of Sudan, late Mamoun Bheiry
became Minister of Finance and National Economy. He loaned me from
Bank of Sudan to be his technical helper. During his stay in this post
two most important projects were achieved. One was the establishment
of Kenena Sugar Co. Ltd which became one of the largest Sugar mills
in the word and had bailed out Sudan from depending on the rest of the
world for this important commodity. The other was the establishment
of AAAID which was supposed to make the Sudan the granary of the
Arab world. In this context I would like to concentrate on AAAID since
its establishment has a lot to do with Egypt’s strategy in Sudan. The
study upon which the idea of AAAID was conceptualized was during
the era of Ibrahim Moneim Mansour who was the Minister of Finance
and National Economy before late Mamoun Bheiry. He was able to give
a very strong push to the idea which helped in the realization AAAID
later on. On the head of the project was an Iraqi in the name of Dr.
Khalid Tahseen who was an expert in the Arab Fund For Economic and
Social Development, which supported the idea. The phase of finalizing
the establishment of AAAID came under the responsibility of late
Mamoun Bheiry. The idea was to transform Sudan into a large granary
of the Arab world. It restricted its activities to production animal feed ,
poultry and some other activities that did not lead to a real development
of Sudan’s agriculture which was the prime objective of the
establishment of AAAID.
In 1976 a meeting was held in Morocco with the aim of establishing the
legal frame of AAAID. Late Mamoun Bheiry and late Al Rashid Nour El
Din, who was Sudan’s Ambassador to Morocco attended the meeting.
The Egyptian delegation tried to minimize the importance of the legal
frame and suggested that it should be a small company for investment
in agriculture in Sudan while the Sudanese delegation insisted that it
should be a sizeable corporation which could undertake investment in
agriculture as well as investments associated with agriculture. It was
thought of by the Sudanese delegation as a small world bank. A strong
tug of war took place between the two delegations and the Sudanese
delegation had to withdraw from the meeting. The late King of
Morocco had to intervene and AAAID was approved as a sizeable
investment institution. I remember late Bheiry telling me that Dr. Hassan
Abbas Zaki who was with the Egyptian delegation when he went back
to Egypt told late President Al Sadat that “Al Bheiry had taken all the
money of the Arabs and will put it in Sudan”. Dr. Khalid Tahseen was
supposed to be the chief person in AAAID. Egypt protested and
indicated it was not fair to have two Iraqis in charge of two important
Arab institutions. He they were referring to late Dr. Abdel Alal Al
Sakban who used to be the head of the Arab Economic Unity
Organisation. Therefore, Egypt was left to propose Dr. Ibrahim Badran
as head of AAAID. Therefore, Egypt was able to gain the post of head
of AAAID and compensated its aborted attempt in Rabat to minimize
the shape of AAAID. The performance of Dr. Badran was many times
under fire by late President Nimeiri. He accused him of minimizing the
role of AAID which could have achieved the real transformation of
Sudan. To my mind Egypt seemed adamant to mitigate the real
transformation of Sudanese agriculture through the presence of Dr.
Badran as head of AAAID. This is so because if Sudan achieved a real
agricultural transformation it would have become economically strong
and if it became economically strong Sudan would have become
politically strong. This is something which Egypt never wanted for the
Sudan in all its history. Moreover ,an increased and enhanced
agricultural development would have meant putting more land under
irrigation and the possibility that Sudan will require to have additional
water supply for irrigation. Moreover, Sudan might have been forced to
call back water lent by it to Egypt !!!
6.While serving as a member of the Higher Committee For GICs in the
Ministry of Finance and National Economy for five years starting
October 2003, I happened to travel as a member of a delegation to
Saudi Arabia to promote these GICs among Sudanese working in the
Kingdom. In one of the visits which we made to Saudi financial
institutions we happened to have visited the Saudi Development Fund
(SDF) in Riyadh. After the main purpose of the visit was satisfied I
have asked the Deputy President of the SDF as to why they do not
show any interest in the raising of the Roseries Dam ?The man smiled
and said, ”Your brothers in the North do not want that !!!”Who are our
brothers in the North other than Egypt! For almost four decades there
was a very subtle resistance to the raising of this Dam which would
have availed to the Sudan about 4 billion cubic meters of water enough
to cultivate large tracts of land. Egypt had always been very wary about
any sort of storage of water inland. That is why Egypt is also dead
against construction of dams projects in the highlands of Ethiopia.
7. The Jonglei Canal (JC).The story of the JC is well known to
everyone since the eighties. However, certain points had to be
discussed specially as regards the developments since the eighties. The
canal project was meant to save water which was to be shared between
the Sudan and Egypt. At that time the people of Southern Sudan were
not consulted nor were they partners to the agreement constructing the
JC. The project was obstructed by the SPLM when it started fighting
the Sudan government after late Dr. Garang took to arms after 1983
(August).However ,after the CPA was signed in January 2005 and a
new authority came to power in the South, nothing in the issue of the
JC was possible without the consent of the Government of South
Sudan (GOSS). Egypt tried to be helpful to the people of the South, but
it appears that such help was very much late. A number of Southerners
feel that Egypt is doing this kind of assistance in order to make them
agree on a restart of the JC. Things were later made worse by the
statements made by the Egyptian Foreign minister who said that if the
South declares its independence, there will be poverty and ethnic
fighting in the South. This seemed to have antagonized a good number
of people in the South indicating that Egypt is interfering in their affairs
by trying to impose unity. That is why the South declared a ban on the
issue of the JC.
8. The 1959 Nile Water agreement. This agreement was signed between
the governments of Sudan and Egypt during the reign of late Abboud,
the head of the first military coup that took place in Sudan immediately
after independence (Nov.1958).That agreement was arranged because
Egypt decided to establish the Aswan High Dam(AHD).That agreement
was considered by many as an unfair and unjust allocation of water
between the two countries. Sudan had to get 18 billion cm of water and
Egypt 55 billion. Moreover, and as a result of the AHD the people of
Wadi Halfa were to be relocated in New Halfa in Eastern Sudan in a
completely different ecology and environment. It was a sizeable
operation in Sudan’s recent history .Wadi Halfa was fully submerged
and with it was submerged a good part of Sudan’s valuable ancient
history. Another fact was that neither the other members of the Nile
Basin nor Ethiopia whose Blue Nile contributes 85 % of the over
harvest of the River Nile as mentioned above, were ever consulted.
After reviewing some of what Egypt did for the Sudan proved that, a)
Egypt sees in the River Nile only its very narrow interest ignoring the
interests of Sudan as well as other members of the Nile valley specially
Ethiopia. b) that it had done everything possible to block Sudan
agricultural development as stated earlier, and that ,c)in a very subtle
way it was able to resist the raising of the Rosereis Dam which could
have assisted Sudan to irrigate large tracts of fertile cultivable land and,
therefore ,help in the alleviation of Sudan’s food needs.
In spite of all this and others Sudan continues to coordinate with Egypt
on its determined stand. One strongly believe that Sudan has to chart
out a new strategy away from the unjust and reasonable stand of Egypt
on the issue of the Nile agreements which no longer hold. The strategy
which comes to mind is actually in the direction of creating a firmer
and more advanced sort of unity between Sudan and Ethiopia. The
various agreements signed this year (2009) between Sudan and Ethiopia
should be brought together in a more comprehensive agreement which
will use these various affinities between the peoples of Sudan and
Ethiopia, the similarities in natural resources, the cultural closeness, the
large population of both (80+40 millions including the South Sudan).
This will form a huge market of its own.(See our paper on the
“Possibility of Economic Cooperation and Integration between the
Sudan and Ethiopia,” presented to the 7th International, Conference of
the Ethiopian Economic Association during 2009). In that paper there
was a very clear discussion giving various reasons why the two
countries should unite as a substitute for the piecemeal attempts,
although very positive , between the adjacent states in both Ethiopia and
the Sudan. There is no way for the Sudan to continue coordinating
positions with Egypt as long as Egypt seeks its own narrow national
interest without any regard to the interest of both Sudan and Ethiopia as
stated before. In a recent piece of news in www.sudantribune.com
under the title “Ethiopia seeks review to old treaty on the Nile,” 2nd.
October, very important remarks were made. In that piece of news
there are very direct charges by Ethiopia that ,(a) Egypt resists any
attempt from Ethiopia to launch any large scale irrigation projects and
warns that attempts to adjust the river status would be regarded as an
act of war, b) Binyam Tekle, an Ethiopian Architect and
Environmentalist argues , “that Egypt is a hidden factor in food crisis in
the East Africa Region.” He added that,” unless the old unfair treaty is
soon reviewed by the international community and Egypt accepted to
loosen its current rigid stand ,once of hand the stream could lead to
wrong but dangerous direction.” c) Despite the fact that Ethiopia
generates the lions’ share to the river (85%), the Horn of Africa nation
uses only 1 % of it because Egypt resists any attempts from Ethiopia to
launch any large scale irrigation projects.” (e) David Shinn an American
diplomat ( now an academician) who was in Sudan and also ex US
Ambassador to Ethiopia charges in the above statement that,” Egyptian
officials work behind “closed doors” to block any funding for upstream
projects.”.This reminded me of a criticism waged on the World Bank
recently by Mr.Meles Zenawi the Prime Minister of Ethiopia for not
assisting in financing Dam projects in Ethiopia as well not estimating
accurately Ethiopia’s need for energy.
Under the title “Meles Blames WB”, in Ethiopia 7 Days Update Vol.XVI,
June 29th,2009,it is reported that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi said that the World Bank and international donors share the
blame for nationwide power cuts that led the government to trim its
economic growth forecast, reports Bloomberg (June 22).The Horn of
Africa country’s economy may grow 10.1 % in the fiscal year ending
in July, compared with an earlier prediction of 11.2 %,Meles said in an
interview on June 19 in the capital Addis Ababa. The World Bank
underestimated electricity demand in previous years and failed to
provide funding for new power-generation projects the government had
wanted, leading to under-investment in the industry, he said. ”We could
have avoided that mistake if we had the money or had the support of
our donors,” Meles said.Ethiopia was recently able to find funding from
China and its companies to construct three dam projects.
Therefore, it appears that it is no longer prudent for Sudan’s national
interest to follow Egypt’s stand since Sudan had been treated unfairly in
the 1959 Agreement vide which Egypt constructed the AHD. In fact
this agreement was done without the knowledge of the Ethiopian
government.I t was Nasser’s era when no body dared to raise his voice
!! Moreover , if Sudan continues to stand by Egypt in spite of the fact
that it had been treated unfairly by Egypt in the 1959 agreement in
addition to what was mentioned earlier of Egypt’s attempts to hinder
Sudan’s agricultural development, Sudan will then to charged as being
an accomplice with Egypt and whatever befalls Egypt will directly or
indirectly befall Sudan.
In sum one sees no logic in Sudan standing or even coordinating the
Nile water policies with Egypt. It is very clear that Egypt had always
over the years and in a very determined way been seeking its narrow
selfish interest at the expense of both Sudan and Ethiopia. The long
standing position of official Egypt has to understand that no one in
his/her rightful mind will ever think of depriving Egypt from having its
needs of water which is its life line and had been so for centuries.
Egypt has to understand that in such a globalised world it cannot go
bullying its neighbours to succumb to its unjust and unfair claims on the
Nile water. However, one is not very confident that Egypt will listen to
the voice of reason that is why Sudan has to chart its own strategy
away from Egypt .This will be the major guarantee against any foreign
intervention in the affairs of the Nile Basin!!
Last but not least nobody on earth can deny the fact that Egypt by
virtue of its position in the Middle East had always played a very
important role in helping the liberation movements in a number of
African countries specially during Nasir’s rule , as well sacrificing men
and machines in the Arab Israeli wars since 1948. Many African
countries look up to Egypt and its leading role in the area. However , if
Egypt goes on insisting to be unfair and unreasonable on the equitable
distribution of the Nile waters which does not originate from Egypt,
then Egypt will definitely lose the sympathy and admiration of the
governments and people of the Nile Basin. In fact the Nile Basin
Initiative if supported by very fair and just agreements among the
various parties shall constitute an imaginative idea to insure the
prosperity and welfare of the millions who had been making a living
from this God’s gift ‘from which every living thing was created’.
Professor Ali Abdalla Ali, can be reached at
profalisudan@gmail.com
.
Courtesy
should be Sudan's strategy?
27 October, 2009 | Professor Ali Abdalla ALI
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“Lo. Allah changeth not the condition of a folk until they
change that which is in their hearts” Quran
October 24, 2009 — During the month of August 2009 a one day
conference was arranged by the International Centre for African
Studies (ICFS) in Khartoum. This centre was established and financed
by Libya Gamahiriya under the responsibility of Mr. Abdalla Zackaria, a
Sudanese thinker who is an avid admirer of Libya and President
Gaddafi. Like many Sudanese he believed the Libyan leader to be the
successor of late Nasir.
- This one day
conference was held
after the Alexandria
meeting on the River
Nile issues which was
held in July 2009
(27/28) in which
Sudan and Egypt were
to coordinate their
positions vis-à-vis the
other members of the
Nile Basin.
profession and is well versed on the legal aspects of the Nile water
agreements. The second was Dr. Salah Yousif who is a highly qualified
engineer extremely familiar with all the technical aspects of the Nile
Basin and is responsible for the affairs of the |Nile water resources in
the Ministry of Irrigation. The third speaker was Dr. Seif El Din Yousif
of the National Security who has deep knowledge of the external
intervention of some countries in the affairs of the Nile Basin specially
the Israeli designs and their pressures to impact both Sudan and Egypt
through developing their relations with countries who constitute the Nile
Basin in Eastern and Central Africa.
Unfortunately I was not able to stay long enough to listen to
interventions on this vital and timely issue. However, I came to know
that the discussion was very objective, sincere and transparent. While
listening to these three experienced Sudanese experts’ three major
thoughts came across my mind. One was that Sudan is endowed with
very able, sincere and objective scholars and technicians who given the
proper environment and confidence could solve Sudan’s various
economic and social problems and institute the much needed
transformation. Second was my feeling that the economic and social
dimension although mentioned slightly were not given their proper
place. But that does not reduce the importance of the deep knowledge
presented by these three Sudanese professionals. The Sudanese people
have to know the implications of their rights on the waters of the Nile
which most flow through the Sudan and the Sudanese has the primary
right to use such waters. Moreover, they were never consulted on such
an issue specially in the 1959 agreement as we shall see, which was
imposed from above during the military rule of late Abboud before the
construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD). In a remark by Dr. Al
Mufti, he said all Egypt was in Alexandria (!) meaning to say that all
Egyptians were setting their eyes on the meeting because they know
pretty well how the Nile is crucial to their lives. The Sudanese people
need to be more aware as to why they need the water from the both
Niles . The third thought which was a very strong one was what kind
of strategy could Sudan adopt in order to secure its national interests
given the present status quo? My strong feeling was and still that while
a country such Egypt knows pretty well what it wanted from the River
Nile, since it strongly believes Egypt is “The Gift of the Nile” as
described by a Greek philosopher in the fifth century AD, I feel unsure
about our own strategy. My feeling had always been that our national
interests were often dealt within the frame of the official Egyptian
strategy and the usual spirit of eternal brotherhood. In other words I
greatly respect Egypt’s choice of a certain strategy, but I am like many
Sudanese extremely believe that Egypt’s strategy is often carried out at
the expense of Sudan’s national interests.
This is what I would like to prove through my experiences and
observations over the last forty five years as a young officer in the
Bank of Sudan(1963-1977), as Economic Advisor to three ministers of
finance (specially during the office of late Bheiry) , as a development
journalist, as a member of the United Nation Institute of Planning
Dakar, Senegal and as an academician in DSRC, University of
Khartoum (1982-1985); the National Council for Research (1995-
1997), and Sudan University of Science and Technology(1998-2008) .
Through all these years I have been noticing that official Egypt had
always been thinking about its own interests – in a single-minded and
determined attitude- more than caring to the interests of Sudan ,Ethiopia
and others. In short words a sort of superiority over all else. We have
always been made by Egypt to feel that we are the younger brother
who is supposed to only listen and obey and conform on every issue
related to Egypt even if the younger brother had to sacrifice his rights
to the big brother. Every file in the relation between Sudan and Egypt is
always kept in closed drawers and guarded with heavy secrecy.
After proving what I believe in I shall try to lay down a strategy for the
Sudan given the present geopolitics in the area.
1. From a historical perspective I would like to refer to a very important
citation by an Egyptian Army Colonel in 1949 who wrote about the
relation between Egypt and Sudan (see Also Ali,”The Sudanese
Egyptian relations; Crisis behind Silence”.(sudantribune.com-19th.May
2008);
“No politician can ignore Egypt’s interest in the Sudan. Its permanent
and vital interest concerns Egypt’s life. Egypt gets its water from the
Nile which flows in the heart of the Sudan. The Nile to Egypt is a
matter of life and death. If the water of the river were controlled by a
hostile state or a state that could become a hostile state Egypt’s life is
over. Of course ,whoever controls the Sudan naturally controls the
Northern Nile Valley. Egypt in this era of conflicting political ideologies
cannot trust the neighbours of the Sudan. Today’s friends may become
tomorrow’s enemies. For this reason all of Egypt’s efforts are to
secure life in the coming future.”That was said in 1949.Let us see what
was said 59 years later by a young Sudanese journalist.
Mubarak Ahmed of ´”Al Sahafa” daily who wrote on 26th. April 2008;
“The Sudanese Egyptian relations are often described as being eternal
and deep down in history. However, this description is always brought
to the fore as a pretext to cover up a number of issues and obstacles
that stand in the way of smooth movement of the relation between the
two countries. These issues remained folded away for very long times
in files which should not be talked about and everybody should remain
silent on them!!”.
Therefore, it seems clear that nothing had substantially changed since
1949. The targets remain the same as well as Egypt’s unusual
obsession about the Nile !
2.The issue of Halaib Triangle (HT) .The awareness about this issue
and its comprehension came later on in one’s life. The issue is well
known to every Sudanese. In 1958 while Abdalla Khalil was the
Sudanese Prime Minister, Egyptian troops entered the HT claiming that
it belonged to Egypt. That was at the time of President Nasir (see Ali
Abdalla Ali,” Halaib 1958;How the Crisis came about and how it was
solved?”translation, 87 pages,1995 and 2008,Sudan Currency Press Co.
). Both Sudan and Egypt almost went to war. A number of countries
intervened to stop the escalation of the issue. Sudan decided to resort to
the UNSC. At that time almost all the members of the UN stood firm on
the side of the Sudan. Nasir had to order his forces whether border
troops or army members to withdraw and declared in Damascus, Syria
that:
“… the news media had distorted the issue and that it is impossible for
an Arab country to entertain doing such an act and that no Arab
country would go to war with another Arab country.” Nasir then added
that ,”this is one of the tools of imperialism that aim at dividing between
us and make us hate each other. I am positively sure that the
enlightened Arab media in Sudan and the United Arab Republic shall
prevail.” (see Ali-p.84-85 ).
However, the issue remained in the drawers of the UNSC until today.
Official Egypt often claim that the files were closed for ever. Everyone
knows that is not the case. The simple reason is that the successive
Sudanese governments who took care of governance in Sudan had
always more urgent and more pressing issues than to claim the HT!!
Moreover ,it was often used by Egypt as a sort of pressure on Sudan ,
whenever it felt that Sudanese politics was at a low ebb. It erupted
again in 1995 and continued to be a thorn on the side of the relations
between the Sudan and Egypt. As Sudanese politics became
complicated vide the issues of South Sudan and Darfur in the Western
region and Sudan became busy with its internal problems , Egypt took it
as a chance to spread its control over the HT specially during the last
two decades. The issue has come up again since the Sudanese election
(2010) has to cover HT as was the case in 1958.A number of articles
of came out raising the issue and worried about the fate of HT in the
forthcoming elections. One such article was by a veteran and well
known and respected journalist and who is also partner in the well
known Al Ayyam daily i.e. Mahgoub Osman. He had to live in exile in
Egypt when the present government took over in 1989, yet he had to
advise Egypt as regards HT in the context of the 2010 elections. The
Assistant to the Sudanese President, Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie (See Ali-2008)
stated that ,”Halaib is 100 % Sudanese but we shall not fight Egypt over
it”. No one in his/her rightful senses wish to have war with Egypt.
However, one feels that Egypt goes on insisting on occupying the HT
claiming that it is Egyptian. Egypt instead of appreciating the
complicated political situation through which Sudan is passing and
offers to negotiate the HT still Egyptian officials like their bosses
continue to declare that HT is a matter that should be forgotten by the
Sudan. Rights are not easily forgotten. Moreover, official Egypt knows
fairly well that if Sudan decided to reactivate the issue in the UNSC at
the moment, it might not at all obtain the strong support of the
members of the UNSC as happened in 1958 !! How can such a position
be thought of except that it is a narrow and short sighted attitude on the
part of Egyptian officials . Egypt Instead of relieving the Sudan from
such pressures it continues to enjoy putting more pressures on the
Sudan and the Sudanese. That is what makes one feel that Egypt knows
nothing else except its own narrow interest even if it is to be at the
expense of others! Such an attitude was explained to me by a fellow
historian which he attributes to the nature of the relation between those
who governed Egypt through the ages and the citizen of that country.
Whatever is taken to mean Egypt’s national interest is carried down to
the low levels as something sacred and never subject to any meaningful
discussion or compromise. He added that most Egyptians repeat
verbatim the proverb which says that” he who teaches me a word ,I
become his slave,” forgetting that one’s serfdom is towards His Creator
Al Mighty God !!
3. In the early sixties while I was a young officer in the Research
Department, Bank of Sudan I was trained in the balance of payments
which later on became one of major interests in economics, I was
concerned with the bilateral trade agreements which at that time were
with Egypt, India and the countries of the then Soviet Union. While
working on the trade agreement with Egypt, I used to notice the various
financial problems faced by the Sudanese exporters who used to take
their Camels to Egypt. They used to be treated very unfairly by
Egyptians and Egyptian banks. Their problems became a major item in
the agenda of the annual meetings between Sudanese and Egyptian
officials in the two countries. I met a number of these traders who felt
terribly bad in the way they were manipulated and given hard time. I
often wondered as to why these people were treated so badly if they are
assumed to be eternal brothers. The explanation came later when I used
to visit Cairo and saw how Egyptians used to treat Sudanese specially if
there is any sort of turbulence in the official relations between the two
countries. The Sudanese or even the Nubians are portrayed in a very
disdainful manner as if coming from another planet. The general media
often gives a very distorted picture of the Sudanese and the Nubians
until to day. Dr. Hisham Adam (himself Nubian) recently wrote a very
powerful article in Al Sahafa ( dated 25/9/2009 – titled.”When will the
Egyptian Cinema stop their sarcasm of the Nubians and Sudanese ?”).
Dr Adam pleaded to those Egyptians who are in charge of the Cinema
industry to stop looking down on the Nubians and Sudanese and to stop
portraying them as sub-human and that such an attitude shall be
extremely harmful to the relation between the two countries.
4.In 1972(11/11), I was seconded to the United Nations Institute for
Economic Planning (IDEP) as a visiting lecturer for one year renewable
. At that time the Director was a well known Egyptian Professor Samir
Amin. He met me in a conference in Dar essalam, Tanzania in 1971 and
offered me to join IDEP so that I could help in the training of African
planners. At the same time I got an offer from the World Bank to join
as a Loan Officer but preferred to go to an African country.. While I
was there , there were two other Egyptians. After a lapse of some
months I was requested to present a research proposal to be financed
by IDEP.I chose a subject which was very much to my heart.It is an
idea that still lives with me until today. The title was,” The Possibilities
of Integration between the countries of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia ”.
The other was,”The Political Economy of Dam Building in the Nile
Basin,”. I presented my proposals in a naïve manner never expecting
that such titles would stir such a storm specially on the part of one of
the two other Egyptians. Professor Amin did not talk to me directly but
pushed the other Egyptian Dr. Khalil to tell me about what they thought.
Dr Khalil and in a very crude rough and threatening voice said to me.”
What do you think you are proposing? How come you make such a
proposal for economic integration between Sudan and Ethiopia while
we are your big brothers and you cannot ignore us?” The proposals
were ultimately rejected and I had to stay for only one year instead of
some more years as promised. The reason was my reservation on the
way IDEP was run both financially and academically and with the help
of our Minister of |Foreign Affairs at that time (Dr. Mansour Khalid)
such reservations were passed to the UNECA in Addis at the time of Mr.
Gardiner and was consequently passed to the UNDP Administrator who
used to help in financing IDEP.
5.In 1975 and while working in Bank of Sudan, late Mamoun Bheiry
became Minister of Finance and National Economy. He loaned me from
Bank of Sudan to be his technical helper. During his stay in this post
two most important projects were achieved. One was the establishment
of Kenena Sugar Co. Ltd which became one of the largest Sugar mills
in the word and had bailed out Sudan from depending on the rest of the
world for this important commodity. The other was the establishment
of AAAID which was supposed to make the Sudan the granary of the
Arab world. In this context I would like to concentrate on AAAID since
its establishment has a lot to do with Egypt’s strategy in Sudan. The
study upon which the idea of AAAID was conceptualized was during
the era of Ibrahim Moneim Mansour who was the Minister of Finance
and National Economy before late Mamoun Bheiry. He was able to give
a very strong push to the idea which helped in the realization AAAID
later on. On the head of the project was an Iraqi in the name of Dr.
Khalid Tahseen who was an expert in the Arab Fund For Economic and
Social Development, which supported the idea. The phase of finalizing
the establishment of AAAID came under the responsibility of late
Mamoun Bheiry. The idea was to transform Sudan into a large granary
of the Arab world. It restricted its activities to production animal feed ,
poultry and some other activities that did not lead to a real development
of Sudan’s agriculture which was the prime objective of the
establishment of AAAID.
In 1976 a meeting was held in Morocco with the aim of establishing the
legal frame of AAAID. Late Mamoun Bheiry and late Al Rashid Nour El
Din, who was Sudan’s Ambassador to Morocco attended the meeting.
The Egyptian delegation tried to minimize the importance of the legal
frame and suggested that it should be a small company for investment
in agriculture in Sudan while the Sudanese delegation insisted that it
should be a sizeable corporation which could undertake investment in
agriculture as well as investments associated with agriculture. It was
thought of by the Sudanese delegation as a small world bank. A strong
tug of war took place between the two delegations and the Sudanese
delegation had to withdraw from the meeting. The late King of
Morocco had to intervene and AAAID was approved as a sizeable
investment institution. I remember late Bheiry telling me that Dr. Hassan
Abbas Zaki who was with the Egyptian delegation when he went back
to Egypt told late President Al Sadat that “Al Bheiry had taken all the
money of the Arabs and will put it in Sudan”. Dr. Khalid Tahseen was
supposed to be the chief person in AAAID. Egypt protested and
indicated it was not fair to have two Iraqis in charge of two important
Arab institutions. He they were referring to late Dr. Abdel Alal Al
Sakban who used to be the head of the Arab Economic Unity
Organisation. Therefore, Egypt was left to propose Dr. Ibrahim Badran
as head of AAAID. Therefore, Egypt was able to gain the post of head
of AAAID and compensated its aborted attempt in Rabat to minimize
the shape of AAAID. The performance of Dr. Badran was many times
under fire by late President Nimeiri. He accused him of minimizing the
role of AAID which could have achieved the real transformation of
Sudan. To my mind Egypt seemed adamant to mitigate the real
transformation of Sudanese agriculture through the presence of Dr.
Badran as head of AAAID. This is so because if Sudan achieved a real
agricultural transformation it would have become economically strong
and if it became economically strong Sudan would have become
politically strong. This is something which Egypt never wanted for the
Sudan in all its history. Moreover ,an increased and enhanced
agricultural development would have meant putting more land under
irrigation and the possibility that Sudan will require to have additional
water supply for irrigation. Moreover, Sudan might have been forced to
call back water lent by it to Egypt !!!
6.While serving as a member of the Higher Committee For GICs in the
Ministry of Finance and National Economy for five years starting
October 2003, I happened to travel as a member of a delegation to
Saudi Arabia to promote these GICs among Sudanese working in the
Kingdom. In one of the visits which we made to Saudi financial
institutions we happened to have visited the Saudi Development Fund
(SDF) in Riyadh. After the main purpose of the visit was satisfied I
have asked the Deputy President of the SDF as to why they do not
show any interest in the raising of the Roseries Dam ?The man smiled
and said, ”Your brothers in the North do not want that !!!”Who are our
brothers in the North other than Egypt! For almost four decades there
was a very subtle resistance to the raising of this Dam which would
have availed to the Sudan about 4 billion cubic meters of water enough
to cultivate large tracts of land. Egypt had always been very wary about
any sort of storage of water inland. That is why Egypt is also dead
against construction of dams projects in the highlands of Ethiopia.
7. The Jonglei Canal (JC).The story of the JC is well known to
everyone since the eighties. However, certain points had to be
discussed specially as regards the developments since the eighties. The
canal project was meant to save water which was to be shared between
the Sudan and Egypt. At that time the people of Southern Sudan were
not consulted nor were they partners to the agreement constructing the
JC. The project was obstructed by the SPLM when it started fighting
the Sudan government after late Dr. Garang took to arms after 1983
(August).However ,after the CPA was signed in January 2005 and a
new authority came to power in the South, nothing in the issue of the
JC was possible without the consent of the Government of South
Sudan (GOSS). Egypt tried to be helpful to the people of the South, but
it appears that such help was very much late. A number of Southerners
feel that Egypt is doing this kind of assistance in order to make them
agree on a restart of the JC. Things were later made worse by the
statements made by the Egyptian Foreign minister who said that if the
South declares its independence, there will be poverty and ethnic
fighting in the South. This seemed to have antagonized a good number
of people in the South indicating that Egypt is interfering in their affairs
by trying to impose unity. That is why the South declared a ban on the
issue of the JC.
8. The 1959 Nile Water agreement. This agreement was signed between
the governments of Sudan and Egypt during the reign of late Abboud,
the head of the first military coup that took place in Sudan immediately
after independence (Nov.1958).That agreement was arranged because
Egypt decided to establish the Aswan High Dam(AHD).That agreement
was considered by many as an unfair and unjust allocation of water
between the two countries. Sudan had to get 18 billion cm of water and
Egypt 55 billion. Moreover, and as a result of the AHD the people of
Wadi Halfa were to be relocated in New Halfa in Eastern Sudan in a
completely different ecology and environment. It was a sizeable
operation in Sudan’s recent history .Wadi Halfa was fully submerged
and with it was submerged a good part of Sudan’s valuable ancient
history. Another fact was that neither the other members of the Nile
Basin nor Ethiopia whose Blue Nile contributes 85 % of the over
harvest of the River Nile as mentioned above, were ever consulted.
After reviewing some of what Egypt did for the Sudan proved that, a)
Egypt sees in the River Nile only its very narrow interest ignoring the
interests of Sudan as well as other members of the Nile valley specially
Ethiopia. b) that it had done everything possible to block Sudan
agricultural development as stated earlier, and that ,c)in a very subtle
way it was able to resist the raising of the Rosereis Dam which could
have assisted Sudan to irrigate large tracts of fertile cultivable land and,
therefore ,help in the alleviation of Sudan’s food needs.
In spite of all this and others Sudan continues to coordinate with Egypt
on its determined stand. One strongly believe that Sudan has to chart
out a new strategy away from the unjust and reasonable stand of Egypt
on the issue of the Nile agreements which no longer hold. The strategy
which comes to mind is actually in the direction of creating a firmer
and more advanced sort of unity between Sudan and Ethiopia. The
various agreements signed this year (2009) between Sudan and Ethiopia
should be brought together in a more comprehensive agreement which
will use these various affinities between the peoples of Sudan and
Ethiopia, the similarities in natural resources, the cultural closeness, the
large population of both (80+40 millions including the South Sudan).
This will form a huge market of its own.(See our paper on the
“Possibility of Economic Cooperation and Integration between the
Sudan and Ethiopia,” presented to the 7th International, Conference of
the Ethiopian Economic Association during 2009). In that paper there
was a very clear discussion giving various reasons why the two
countries should unite as a substitute for the piecemeal attempts,
although very positive , between the adjacent states in both Ethiopia and
the Sudan. There is no way for the Sudan to continue coordinating
positions with Egypt as long as Egypt seeks its own narrow national
interest without any regard to the interest of both Sudan and Ethiopia as
stated before. In a recent piece of news in www.sudantribune.com
under the title “Ethiopia seeks review to old treaty on the Nile,” 2nd.
October, very important remarks were made. In that piece of news
there are very direct charges by Ethiopia that ,(a) Egypt resists any
attempt from Ethiopia to launch any large scale irrigation projects and
warns that attempts to adjust the river status would be regarded as an
act of war, b) Binyam Tekle, an Ethiopian Architect and
Environmentalist argues , “that Egypt is a hidden factor in food crisis in
the East Africa Region.” He added that,” unless the old unfair treaty is
soon reviewed by the international community and Egypt accepted to
loosen its current rigid stand ,once of hand the stream could lead to
wrong but dangerous direction.” c) Despite the fact that Ethiopia
generates the lions’ share to the river (85%), the Horn of Africa nation
uses only 1 % of it because Egypt resists any attempts from Ethiopia to
launch any large scale irrigation projects.” (e) David Shinn an American
diplomat ( now an academician) who was in Sudan and also ex US
Ambassador to Ethiopia charges in the above statement that,” Egyptian
officials work behind “closed doors” to block any funding for upstream
projects.”.This reminded me of a criticism waged on the World Bank
recently by Mr.Meles Zenawi the Prime Minister of Ethiopia for not
assisting in financing Dam projects in Ethiopia as well not estimating
accurately Ethiopia’s need for energy.
Under the title “Meles Blames WB”, in Ethiopia 7 Days Update Vol.XVI,
June 29th,2009,it is reported that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi said that the World Bank and international donors share the
blame for nationwide power cuts that led the government to trim its
economic growth forecast, reports Bloomberg (June 22).The Horn of
Africa country’s economy may grow 10.1 % in the fiscal year ending
in July, compared with an earlier prediction of 11.2 %,Meles said in an
interview on June 19 in the capital Addis Ababa. The World Bank
underestimated electricity demand in previous years and failed to
provide funding for new power-generation projects the government had
wanted, leading to under-investment in the industry, he said. ”We could
have avoided that mistake if we had the money or had the support of
our donors,” Meles said.Ethiopia was recently able to find funding from
China and its companies to construct three dam projects.
Therefore, it appears that it is no longer prudent for Sudan’s national
interest to follow Egypt’s stand since Sudan had been treated unfairly in
the 1959 Agreement vide which Egypt constructed the AHD. In fact
this agreement was done without the knowledge of the Ethiopian
government.I t was Nasser’s era when no body dared to raise his voice
!! Moreover , if Sudan continues to stand by Egypt in spite of the fact
that it had been treated unfairly by Egypt in the 1959 agreement in
addition to what was mentioned earlier of Egypt’s attempts to hinder
Sudan’s agricultural development, Sudan will then to charged as being
an accomplice with Egypt and whatever befalls Egypt will directly or
indirectly befall Sudan.
In sum one sees no logic in Sudan standing or even coordinating the
Nile water policies with Egypt. It is very clear that Egypt had always
over the years and in a very determined way been seeking its narrow
selfish interest at the expense of both Sudan and Ethiopia. The long
standing position of official Egypt has to understand that no one in
his/her rightful mind will ever think of depriving Egypt from having its
needs of water which is its life line and had been so for centuries.
Egypt has to understand that in such a globalised world it cannot go
bullying its neighbours to succumb to its unjust and unfair claims on the
Nile water. However, one is not very confident that Egypt will listen to
the voice of reason that is why Sudan has to chart its own strategy
away from Egypt .This will be the major guarantee against any foreign
intervention in the affairs of the Nile Basin!!
Last but not least nobody on earth can deny the fact that Egypt by
virtue of its position in the Middle East had always played a very
important role in helping the liberation movements in a number of
African countries specially during Nasir’s rule , as well sacrificing men
and machines in the Arab Israeli wars since 1948. Many African
countries look up to Egypt and its leading role in the area. However , if
Egypt goes on insisting to be unfair and unreasonable on the equitable
distribution of the Nile waters which does not originate from Egypt,
then Egypt will definitely lose the sympathy and admiration of the
governments and people of the Nile Basin. In fact the Nile Basin
Initiative if supported by very fair and just agreements among the
various parties shall constitute an imaginative idea to insure the
prosperity and welfare of the millions who had been making a living
from this God’s gift ‘from which every living thing was created’.
Professor Ali Abdalla Ali, can be reached at
profalisudan@gmail.com
.
Courtesy
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