The Outcast
23 August, 2010 | STRATEGY PAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
August 23, 2010: Ethiopia announced that it had negotiated a peace
deal with a large faction of the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation
Front). Last month, the Ethiopians signed a peace deal with one of
the smaller Somali rebels groups in Ogaden province. This area, on
the Somali border, is populated largely by Somalis and has long
been claimed by Somalia. There is oil in Ogaden (worth up to $100
billion or more), and Ethiopia is willing to wheel, deal and fight to
protect this resource. As fierce as the Somalis are, the Ethiopians
can match them in combat. So the Somalis have been offering gifts,
and peace, to make deals with the Ogaden rebels. This approach
has apparently included some nasty violence against Ogaden rebels,
to make the point that the alternative to peace is very painful. The
ONLF denies that there has been any peace deal, but the Ogaden
has been quiet over the Summer, and calls talk of peace
government propaganda. Lack of violence is what passes for peace
in this part of the world.
and keeping opposition non-existent. The situation is not much
better next door in Ethiopia, where there is a bit more prosperity,
attention to the drought and political opposition. But Ethiopia also
has one party rule. Nevertheless, inflation and food prices are down
in Ethiopia, and up in Eritrea.
While Ethiopia and Eritrea host each other's rebels, Eritrea has the
most to fear from this. Ethiopia is a larger place (a million square
kilometers and 79 million people, versus 118,000 square kilometers
and 5.7 million), and the various rebel groups have plenty of places
to hide. Not surprisingly, Eritrea is a major source of refugees in the
region. Those with money flee across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen
and exile in the Middle East and beyond. Those without money go
to Ethiopia, where the government there recently allowed these
36,000 refugees to live outside the refugee camps.
Ethiopia continues to maintain thousands of troops on the Somali
border. Since these troops are also in Ogaden, they keep Somalis
out, and local ethnic Somali rebels under control. Islamic rebel
groups in Somalia still talk of invading Ethiopia, but none have tried
it in months.
China has replaced Germany as Ethiopia biggest export customer.
China bought 36 percent of these exports (which totaled $2 billion
in the last year), the biggest item being sesame seeds. Coffee and
khat (an addictive leaf that is chewed fresh to obtain the narcotic
effect) are the two biggest exports overall. Eritreas economy is
increasingly dependent on gifts from Iran, which uses Eritrea as a
base to support Islamic radicals in the region.
August 15, 2010: The ONLF claims attacks on Ethiopian troops in
four Ogaden towns, killing 44 soldiers. But there was no way to
confirm this, and the Ethiopians denied any such activity. The
ONLF has claimed non-existent attacks in the past, and this
appears to be more of them.
July 29, 2010: The Ethiopians signed a peace deal with the
UWSLF (United West Somali Liberation Front) to reduce the
amount of violence in Ogaden.
July 11, 2010: In Uganda, Somali Islamic terrorists set off several
bombs, killing over 70 people. Most African nations condemned
this, but not Eritrea, which supports Somali Islamic terrorist groups.
Eritrea provides safe bases for Somali Islamic terrorist groups and
allows illegal arms to be brought to Eritrea, where they can be flown
into Somalia. In the face of these attacks on Uganda, Eritrea is even
more isolated.
"
Courtesy
23 August, 2010 | STRATEGY PAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
August 23, 2010: Ethiopia announced that it had negotiated a peace
deal with a large faction of the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation
Front). Last month, the Ethiopians signed a peace deal with one of
the smaller Somali rebels groups in Ogaden province. This area, on
the Somali border, is populated largely by Somalis and has long
been claimed by Somalia. There is oil in Ogaden (worth up to $100
billion or more), and Ethiopia is willing to wheel, deal and fight to
protect this resource. As fierce as the Somalis are, the Ethiopians
can match them in combat. So the Somalis have been offering gifts,
and peace, to make deals with the Ogaden rebels. This approach
has apparently included some nasty violence against Ogaden rebels,
to make the point that the alternative to peace is very painful. The
ONLF denies that there has been any peace deal, but the Ogaden
has been quiet over the Summer, and calls talk of peace
government propaganda. Lack of violence is what passes for peace
in this part of the world.
- Eritrea continues to
wallow in
dictatorship, poverty
and paranoia. The
government is
currently denying that
there is a major
drought and food
and keeping opposition non-existent. The situation is not much
better next door in Ethiopia, where there is a bit more prosperity,
attention to the drought and political opposition. But Ethiopia also
has one party rule. Nevertheless, inflation and food prices are down
in Ethiopia, and up in Eritrea.
While Ethiopia and Eritrea host each other's rebels, Eritrea has the
most to fear from this. Ethiopia is a larger place (a million square
kilometers and 79 million people, versus 118,000 square kilometers
and 5.7 million), and the various rebel groups have plenty of places
to hide. Not surprisingly, Eritrea is a major source of refugees in the
region. Those with money flee across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen
and exile in the Middle East and beyond. Those without money go
to Ethiopia, where the government there recently allowed these
36,000 refugees to live outside the refugee camps.
Ethiopia continues to maintain thousands of troops on the Somali
border. Since these troops are also in Ogaden, they keep Somalis
out, and local ethnic Somali rebels under control. Islamic rebel
groups in Somalia still talk of invading Ethiopia, but none have tried
it in months.
China has replaced Germany as Ethiopia biggest export customer.
China bought 36 percent of these exports (which totaled $2 billion
in the last year), the biggest item being sesame seeds. Coffee and
khat (an addictive leaf that is chewed fresh to obtain the narcotic
effect) are the two biggest exports overall. Eritreas economy is
increasingly dependent on gifts from Iran, which uses Eritrea as a
base to support Islamic radicals in the region.
August 15, 2010: The ONLF claims attacks on Ethiopian troops in
four Ogaden towns, killing 44 soldiers. But there was no way to
confirm this, and the Ethiopians denied any such activity. The
ONLF has claimed non-existent attacks in the past, and this
appears to be more of them.
July 29, 2010: The Ethiopians signed a peace deal with the
UWSLF (United West Somali Liberation Front) to reduce the
amount of violence in Ogaden.
July 11, 2010: In Uganda, Somali Islamic terrorists set off several
bombs, killing over 70 people. Most African nations condemned
this, but not Eritrea, which supports Somali Islamic terrorist groups.
Eritrea provides safe bases for Somali Islamic terrorist groups and
allows illegal arms to be brought to Eritrea, where they can be flown
into Somalia. In the face of these attacks on Uganda, Eritrea is even
more isolated.
"
Courtesy
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