Editorial: Somalia crisis
8 August, 2009 | Arab News
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in the rest — the south — chaos rules. Hard-line Al-Shabab militants,
while incapable of establishing themselves in power, have gradually
eroded the government’s writ since January this year when Ethiopian
military pulled out. In reality, the government is in exile. The country is
in a vortex of anarchy — another Afghanistan in the making. But not the
Afghanistan of today, rather the lawless Afghanistan of 1994-96, before
the Taleban swept to power.
There is no doubt that if Al-Shabab were to establish themselves in
control of the country, it would be disastrous for Somalis. They detest
its extremism and thuggery. As in Afghanistan when the Taleban ruled
and hundreds of thousands of Afghans fled the brutality of its twisted
version of Islam, even greater numbers of Somalis have fled their
homeland, not just to escape the fighting and the chaos but also out of
fear of the militants.
A triumphant Al-Shabab regime would be terrifying for the world. Its
tentacles spread far, as shown by the arrest in Australia last week of
five men linked to it and accused of planning a major terror attack there.
The world would not sit quiet in such a situation. Somalia under Al-
Shabab would be an Al-Qaeda client state, intent on spreading terror
abroad, especially to other Muslim states, not least Saudi Arabia. The
Kingdom has been a principal target of Al-Qaeda. Why would it not be a
target of Al-Qaeda’s Somali minions?
Somalia would probably have been at peace now if governments in the
Horn of Africa and beyond had kept out of its affairs. Ethiopia’s
meddling, with its 2006 invasion, has been obvious. Eritrea’s has been
more covert. Certainly, it denies arming and funding the militants
although no one believes that.
Nonetheless, despite all this and despite Somalia’s desperate need for a
stable government that truly reflects the views of Somalis, there has to
be no small amount of concern at the way the US is responding to
events.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, after meeting with President
Ahmed in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi on Thursday, said that the US
will “take action” against Eritrea if it does not stop supporting the
militants. Red warning lights start flashing with this sort of language. Is
America threatening military action against Eritrea? Surely it has enough
on its hands with Iraq and Afghanistan. Even if the action Clinton has in
mind is merely diplomatic — adding it to its list of terror states and
trying to blacklist it — this could backfire badly. It could easily be made
to seem like a case of the US bullying a small, defenseless African state
that is an easy target, unlike Iran or North Korea. In any event, will it
work? With the president being a cult figure, its suspicion of the rest of
the world, and its quasi-Stalinist one-party rigidly controlled system,
Eritrea is increasingly seen as the North Korea of Africa; American
threats will only increase its already evident paranoia. That will only
destabilize the region even more.
Courtesy
8 August, 2009 | Arab News
--------------------------------------------------
- That Somalia is a political disaster
zone is beyond question. It has an
internationally accepted government
headed by moderate President Sheikh
Sharif Ahmed but it is a government
in name only. The north runs itself
as autonomous region from which
pirates freely terrorize the Gulf of
Aden and beyond; to its west, the
in the rest — the south — chaos rules. Hard-line Al-Shabab militants,
while incapable of establishing themselves in power, have gradually
eroded the government’s writ since January this year when Ethiopian
military pulled out. In reality, the government is in exile. The country is
in a vortex of anarchy — another Afghanistan in the making. But not the
Afghanistan of today, rather the lawless Afghanistan of 1994-96, before
the Taleban swept to power.
There is no doubt that if Al-Shabab were to establish themselves in
control of the country, it would be disastrous for Somalis. They detest
its extremism and thuggery. As in Afghanistan when the Taleban ruled
and hundreds of thousands of Afghans fled the brutality of its twisted
version of Islam, even greater numbers of Somalis have fled their
homeland, not just to escape the fighting and the chaos but also out of
fear of the militants.
A triumphant Al-Shabab regime would be terrifying for the world. Its
tentacles spread far, as shown by the arrest in Australia last week of
five men linked to it and accused of planning a major terror attack there.
The world would not sit quiet in such a situation. Somalia under Al-
Shabab would be an Al-Qaeda client state, intent on spreading terror
abroad, especially to other Muslim states, not least Saudi Arabia. The
Kingdom has been a principal target of Al-Qaeda. Why would it not be a
target of Al-Qaeda’s Somali minions?
Somalia would probably have been at peace now if governments in the
Horn of Africa and beyond had kept out of its affairs. Ethiopia’s
meddling, with its 2006 invasion, has been obvious. Eritrea’s has been
more covert. Certainly, it denies arming and funding the militants
although no one believes that.
Nonetheless, despite all this and despite Somalia’s desperate need for a
stable government that truly reflects the views of Somalis, there has to
be no small amount of concern at the way the US is responding to
events.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, after meeting with President
Ahmed in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi on Thursday, said that the US
will “take action” against Eritrea if it does not stop supporting the
militants. Red warning lights start flashing with this sort of language. Is
America threatening military action against Eritrea? Surely it has enough
on its hands with Iraq and Afghanistan. Even if the action Clinton has in
mind is merely diplomatic — adding it to its list of terror states and
trying to blacklist it — this could backfire badly. It could easily be made
to seem like a case of the US bullying a small, defenseless African state
that is an easy target, unlike Iran or North Korea. In any event, will it
work? With the president being a cult figure, its suspicion of the rest of
the world, and its quasi-Stalinist one-party rigidly controlled system,
Eritrea is increasingly seen as the North Korea of Africa; American
threats will only increase its already evident paranoia. That will only
destabilize the region even more.
Courtesy
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