Sudan - A nation divided: Where does Etiiopia Stand?

Egypt’s takeover of
Sudan’s Gezira scheme
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The Fate of the Nile Basin
Initiative after
May 14th.2010
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Nile Basin: Obstacles and
future challenges
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Struggle over The River
Nile; what should be
Sudan's strategy?

Sudan — A nation divided:
Where does Ethiopia stand?

24 December, 2010 | By KASSAHUN
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Ethiopia does not only share a long

border with the Sudan (1600 kms

length) but also the Blue Nile,

the lifeline of both Sudan and

Egypt. And

despite the Sudan’s

historical and strategic links with

Ethiopia the two

countries have

since time immemorial walked the

tight rope between

security and

strategic alliances in a Horn of

Africa region bereft of

cohesion

The fifth in our series of articles about South Sudan and Abyei’s
independence referenda studies Ethiopia’s position vis-à-vis the
North and the South. Sudan has been warming up to the Arab
League to the detriment of its position as an African nation within the
African Union, and over the years has served as Egypt’s main
conduit of destabilization efforts directed against Ethiopia, according
to many analysts.

Egypt had for years backed Somali irredentism, the Eritrean
Liberation Front and other secessionist groups that were fighting
their central governments, including the TPLF, which is now in
power in Addis Ababa. TPLF was one of the recipients of Egypt’s
military and financial aid through the Sudan. As a result, Ethiopian
regimes have had well articulated strategies as concerns South
Sudan and its struggle against the Arab North.

The Haile Sellasie government fully backed, with Israel, the Anya
Nya rebellion of the “Christian South” against the Muslim Arab
North. It countered the Sudanese support to the Eritrean rebels. By
1971, Sudan and Ethiopia agreed on the settlement of the Southern
problem through dialog, after which a peace accord was signed in
Addis Abeba between the Ana Nya and the Nimeri government.

Nimeri went through the motion of closing the ELF offices in
Khartoum and Kassala but the move was not serious. When Haile
Sellasie was overthrown in 1974, cold war alliances changed with
Nimeri becoming close to Washington and the Addis Abeba military
regime allying with the Soviet Camp.

Now, a plan hatched by Sudan’s Western alliance to sabotage the
Mengistu regime in Addis Ababa made Khartoum its pivotal base
and thus anti-Mengistu movements of all categories — secessionists,
leftists, Ethiopian-contras backed by the USA — were all using the
Sudan as their political and military base. And to counter this, the
military regime in Addis Abeba committed itself to fully support the
SPLM/SPLA to the extent that Ethiopian military C130 planes and
soldiers began fighting alongside Southern Sudan rebels. Mengistu
Haile Mariam lobbied Mugabe, Castro and the Vietnamese to help
Garang and his cause.

During the 1984 famine in Ethiopia, George Bush (sr), who was at
the time President Ronald Reagan’s Vice President, flew over to the
Sudan, met with Nimeri and finalized the Western plan to destabilize
Mengistu by using the famine aid to strengthen the Tigrean and
Eritrean rebels. More than 95% of the famine aid money was
diverted by the Tigreran front of Meles Zenawi (TPLF), Ethiopia’s
current Prime Minister, with the full knowledge and collaboration of
most of the relief and aid agencies.

By 1991, the Mengistu regime fell and the pro-Sudan TPLF that
took power chased off the SPLM/A from Ethiopian soil. Omar
Beshir and his aides like Fath el Erwa who had closely worked with
Washington and the Tigrean rebels were elated and in recognition
they also rounded up dozens of Ethiopian opposition (EPRP)
members and handed them over to the TPLF. The OLF was denied
access to Ethiopia through the Sudan.

This is when the SPLM main base shifted to Kenya and Uganda.
However, the honeymoon did not last. Omar Beshir’s regime fell out
with Washington, and consequently with Asmara and Addis Abeba.
But Meles Zenawi, fearing Sudan would open its borders to
Ethiopian opposition forces, mended fence with Khartoum. Eritrea,
on the other hand, continued to back the SPLM and the Northern
political opposition and also helped launch the Eastern armed front
of the Bejas against Khartoum.

The American sponsored drive to destabilize and overthrow the
Beshir regime was by now using Asmara as its center. Beshir and
Meles eventually morphed into a pair of Siamese twins; One needing
the other’s support or neutrality at best. Meles ceded Ethiopian
territory (in the historic Quara region) to Khartoum to further placate
Beshir. In return the Khartoum regime has continued to suppress
Ethiopian opposition while harassing the thousands of refugees on its
soil.

What happens in South Sudan is of great strategic importance to
Ethiopia, even if the regime in Addis Ababa does not represent
Ethiopian national interest.

In a related strategic consideration, the military regime of colonel
Mengistu had concluded that the breakup of Somalia was of
paramount importance to Ethiopia and then went on to arm all and
sundry Somali groups to attack the Barre regime and to
subsequently create havoc in that country. The plan has worked as
the present day stateless, war torn and divided Somalia attests.

Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi is walking on both lanes—
on the one hand working with Beshir and on the other working with
the West to assure the secession of South Sudan to whose
government (GOSS) it is, along with Kenya, already serving as an
arms conduit.

Courtesy