| Somali militant group claims bombing of Ethiopians "This is a message to the Puntland authority which had extended a welcome and showed affection to the long-time enemy Ethiopians," the Web site, informing Muslim society to keep away from the infidels of Ethiopia whether they are in military dress or not..More |
Shabab Bombings May Be A Sign of Weakness
19 July, 2010 | By Kevin Peraino (Newsweek)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horrific bombings in the Ugandan capital seemed to mark the
arrival of a new player in global jihad. But the world shouldn’t
overreact: the killings are also a sign of splits within the Somali
militant community.
At first glance, the images of overturned tables and blood-soaked walls
seemed to tell a familiar story. The setting—Kampala, the laid-back
capital of Uganda, during the World Cup championship last week—was
new, but the lesson of the latest global terrorist bombings was by now
routine: jihadi groups are ruthless, unpredictable, and prone to
metastasize. Chaotic backwaters in the Horn of Africa can spawn
threats just as dangerous as those in the Middle East and South Asia.
The newest addition to the global most-wanted list: Al-Shabab (“the
Youth”), a murderous clique of Somali militants who claimed last week’
s bombings as their first act of terrorism outside their own country’s
borders.
Mogadishu. Yet a paradox lies at the heart of Al-Shabab’s newfound
notoriety. Even as the group’s global profile has risen, the militants are
less popular and less effective at home than they’ve ever been. “The
local jihad is no longer working in their favor,” says Rashid Abdi of the
International Crisis Group. “They have lost the political momentum.”
The Uganda attacks, he says, “are probably a sign of desperation.”
The organization wasn’t always so isolated inside Somalia. Its leadership
initially emerged from the ranks of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a
popular network of local Islamists that tried to restore some measure of
order to Somalia after years of warlord rule. The ICU ran schools and
other social services, winning the affections of impoverished Somalis.
The group’s stature rose further in the eyes of locals in late 2006, when
Ethiopian troops, encouraged by the Bush administration, invaded
Somalia in an effort to oust the Islamists. Al-Shabab and a number of
other fundamentalist factions were hailed by ordinary Somalis as
freedom fighters as they battled the invading Ethiopians.
But when the Ethiopian military finally pulled out last year, Al-Shabab’s
support waned and Islamist factions began to quarrel among
themselves. More moderate elements of the former ICU grew wary of
the group’s hardline positions. As Al-Shabab extremists carved out
enclaves of control south of Mogadishu, they imposed their own harsh—
and wildly unpopular—brand of justice. Adulterers were stoned to
death. Other Somalis had their limbs hacked off. Hardline commanders—
some of them Arabs and other foreigners—began calling the shots. In
December last year, a suicide bomber killed dozens of Somalis at a
graduation ceremony for medical and engineering students in
Mogadishu, a cynical act of terrorism that infuriated many Somalis.
Al-Shabab’s decision to bomb foreign targets was probably taken
reluctantly. Somalis depend heavily on more than 1 million expats to
send home remittances, which are estimated at roughly $1 billion a year.
The militants, too, rely on expats in Africa and elsewhere to funnel
money and weapons to Al-Shabab fighters inside the country. Attacks
like those in Uganda, which killed more than 70 civilians, are likely to
result in xenophobic retaliation against Somalis living abroad, perhaps
alienating those people from Al-Shabab’s radical cause. The bombings
could also spur Somalia’s neighbors to crack down on Al-Shabab’s
supply lines.
But Al-Shabab must have calculated that the potential benefits
outweighed the risks. On the surface, last week’s attacks seemed to be
an attempt to frighten Ugandans into pulling their peacekeeping troops
out of Somalia. (Ugandan soldiers are part of the African Union force
that helps protect the transitional government.) But Ken Menkhaus, a
Somalia expert at Davidson College, says the opposite may be true. The
militants may be aiming to provoke wider international involvement in
Somalia that “could inadvertently drive Somalis back into the Shabab’s
arms.” In the view of the militants, the “best opportunity to regain
popularity locally” may be to “regionalize the conflict,” says Menkhaus.
Pinpoint strikes targeting Al-Shabab’s leadership could be an effective
way to hit back. Yet Menkhaus and other analysts believe it’s important
for Somalia’s neighbors—and U.S. policymakers—to avoid
overreacting. Al-Shabab “will benefit from an indiscriminate response,”
says one Western observer with long experience in Somalia who did not
want to be named discussing the volatile political situation.
A better approach may be to encourage the transitional government, led
by Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, to broaden its support. Ahmed and his
backers could use this opportunity to quietly reach out to Al-Shabab’s
erstwhile allies among other Somali opposition groups. Many street
fighters are just teenagers who could be bought off, and even some old-
guard commanders are probably resentful of Al Qaeda–linked foreigners
who have become more influential.
Unfortunately, Ahmed is not popular either. He is widely viewed as a
stooge of foreign powers, and his government is “deeply incompetent
and corrupt,” says Abdi Samatar, a professor at the University of
Minnesota. “The Somalis have lost faith in it.” Moreover, the president’s
troops control little territory outside his own palace. In this sense,
anyway, Somalia’s tragedy is a familiar story after all.
With Mark Hosenball in Washington
Courtesy
19 July, 2010 | By Kevin Peraino (Newsweek)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Horrific bombings in the Ugandan capital seemed to mark the
arrival of a new player in global jihad. But the world shouldn’t
overreact: the killings are also a sign of splits within the Somali
militant community.
At first glance, the images of overturned tables and blood-soaked walls
seemed to tell a familiar story. The setting—Kampala, the laid-back
capital of Uganda, during the World Cup championship last week—was
new, but the lesson of the latest global terrorist bombings was by now
routine: jihadi groups are ruthless, unpredictable, and prone to
metastasize. Chaotic backwaters in the Horn of Africa can spawn
threats just as dangerous as those in the Middle East and South Asia.
The newest addition to the global most-wanted list: Al-Shabab (“the
Youth”), a murderous clique of Somali militants who claimed last week’
s bombings as their first act of terrorism outside their own country’s
borders.
- American policymakers have
long been following the
growth of Al-Shabab. The
State Department designated
the group a terrorist
organization in 2008, and in
recent years U.S.
investigators have watched
with alarm as a stream of
Somali-American youngsters
Mogadishu. Yet a paradox lies at the heart of Al-Shabab’s newfound
notoriety. Even as the group’s global profile has risen, the militants are
less popular and less effective at home than they’ve ever been. “The
local jihad is no longer working in their favor,” says Rashid Abdi of the
International Crisis Group. “They have lost the political momentum.”
The Uganda attacks, he says, “are probably a sign of desperation.”
The organization wasn’t always so isolated inside Somalia. Its leadership
initially emerged from the ranks of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a
popular network of local Islamists that tried to restore some measure of
order to Somalia after years of warlord rule. The ICU ran schools and
other social services, winning the affections of impoverished Somalis.
The group’s stature rose further in the eyes of locals in late 2006, when
Ethiopian troops, encouraged by the Bush administration, invaded
Somalia in an effort to oust the Islamists. Al-Shabab and a number of
other fundamentalist factions were hailed by ordinary Somalis as
freedom fighters as they battled the invading Ethiopians.
But when the Ethiopian military finally pulled out last year, Al-Shabab’s
support waned and Islamist factions began to quarrel among
themselves. More moderate elements of the former ICU grew wary of
the group’s hardline positions. As Al-Shabab extremists carved out
enclaves of control south of Mogadishu, they imposed their own harsh—
and wildly unpopular—brand of justice. Adulterers were stoned to
death. Other Somalis had their limbs hacked off. Hardline commanders—
some of them Arabs and other foreigners—began calling the shots. In
December last year, a suicide bomber killed dozens of Somalis at a
graduation ceremony for medical and engineering students in
Mogadishu, a cynical act of terrorism that infuriated many Somalis.
Al-Shabab’s decision to bomb foreign targets was probably taken
reluctantly. Somalis depend heavily on more than 1 million expats to
send home remittances, which are estimated at roughly $1 billion a year.
The militants, too, rely on expats in Africa and elsewhere to funnel
money and weapons to Al-Shabab fighters inside the country. Attacks
like those in Uganda, which killed more than 70 civilians, are likely to
result in xenophobic retaliation against Somalis living abroad, perhaps
alienating those people from Al-Shabab’s radical cause. The bombings
could also spur Somalia’s neighbors to crack down on Al-Shabab’s
supply lines.
But Al-Shabab must have calculated that the potential benefits
outweighed the risks. On the surface, last week’s attacks seemed to be
an attempt to frighten Ugandans into pulling their peacekeeping troops
out of Somalia. (Ugandan soldiers are part of the African Union force
that helps protect the transitional government.) But Ken Menkhaus, a
Somalia expert at Davidson College, says the opposite may be true. The
militants may be aiming to provoke wider international involvement in
Somalia that “could inadvertently drive Somalis back into the Shabab’s
arms.” In the view of the militants, the “best opportunity to regain
popularity locally” may be to “regionalize the conflict,” says Menkhaus.
Pinpoint strikes targeting Al-Shabab’s leadership could be an effective
way to hit back. Yet Menkhaus and other analysts believe it’s important
for Somalia’s neighbors—and U.S. policymakers—to avoid
overreacting. Al-Shabab “will benefit from an indiscriminate response,”
says one Western observer with long experience in Somalia who did not
want to be named discussing the volatile political situation.
A better approach may be to encourage the transitional government, led
by Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, to broaden its support. Ahmed and his
backers could use this opportunity to quietly reach out to Al-Shabab’s
erstwhile allies among other Somali opposition groups. Many street
fighters are just teenagers who could be bought off, and even some old-
guard commanders are probably resentful of Al Qaeda–linked foreigners
who have become more influential.
Unfortunately, Ahmed is not popular either. He is widely viewed as a
stooge of foreign powers, and his government is “deeply incompetent
and corrupt,” says Abdi Samatar, a professor at the University of
Minnesota. “The Somalis have lost faith in it.” Moreover, the president’s
troops control little territory outside his own palace. In this sense,
anyway, Somalia’s tragedy is a familiar story after all.
With Mark Hosenball in Washington
Courtesy
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